Does anyone remember a winter without snow??

[albacized]

On 2/17/2023 at 2:51 PM, MakoMike said:

Been holding off entering this discussion since I don’t live in MA. Where I live, in Newtown CT in the last ten years or so, I can count several years when I never had to plow or snow blow my driveway. Does that count?

In recalling the April Fools blizzard back in 97, we had 3’ of snow on the ground in Waltham (where I lived at the time). The very moment I finished shoveling a crevice big enough to drive my car through, I threw fishing gear in my car and took a ride down to Norwich, CT for some holdover fishing (which I caught one single fish). I took 128, and Int 95 all the way. It was a winter wonderland until I got past Providence, where the snow totals rapidly decreased, until there was no snow on the ground near the RI/CT border. Down there, it was just another beautiful spring day. I fished until just after dusk on the Thames River, when comet hale bop rose and put on its daily evening show. I couldn’t believe this was less than 2 hours from the hellacious winter scene I unfortunately had to drive back to. But eventually that’s what I did…I took a different route back (Int 395 to the pike). Started seeing snow pack again when I was about 3/4 of the way back to the CT/MA border. At least I had a day reprieve 

One a side note, back in MA, it immediately warmed up and that 3’ of snow was gone in a week, with the only evidence being those big piles of snow you see in large parking lots, which took a bit longer to melt

[rst3]

5 hours ago, albacized said:

LI fished until just after dusk on the Thames River, when comet hale bop rose and put on its daily evening show.l

Hale Bop was such an impressive comet. One of the 'Great Comets' for sure. 

[foxfai]

6 hours ago, albacized said:

In recalling the April Fools blizzard back in 97, we had 3’ of snow on the ground in Waltham (where I lived at the time). The very moment I finished shoveling a crevice big enough to drive my car through, I threw fishing gear in my car and took a ride down to Norwich, CT for some holdover fishing (which I caught one single fish). I took 128, and Int 95 all the way. It was a winter wonderland until I got past Providence, where the snow totals rapidly decreased, until there was no snow on the ground near the RI/CT border. Down there, it was just another beautiful spring day. I fished until just after dusk on the Thames River, when comet hale bop rose and put on its daily evening show. I couldn’t believe this was less than 2 hours from the hellacious winter scene I unfortunately had to drive back to. But eventually that’s what I did…I took a different route back (Int 395 to the pike). Started seeing snow pack again when I was about 3/4 of the way back to the CT/MA border. At least I had a day reprieve 

One a side note, back in MA, it immediately warmed up and that 3’ of snow was gone in a week, with the only evidence being those big piles of snow you see in large parking lots, which took a bit longer to melt

It was a storm to remember. I was in high school. Storm started Monday afternoon, I went out to eat after school and it was coming down hard. School were closed Tues-Friday since there was transportation issue. Green line trolley were shutdown since they couldn't plow the track and some other issues. I walked from Downtown to Allston all week to avoid the bus crowd. It was a nice spring a week after. 

[clambellies]

Having a bit of a pessimistic streak I'm afraid that a snowless winter so far will mean we get clobbered in April when things are looking like Spring.

 

 

[Dogfish Between Jetties]

52 mins ago, clambellies said:

Having a bit of a pessimistic streak I'm afraid that a snowless winter so far will mean we get clobbered in April when things are looking like Spring.

 

 

Or May/June flooding.

[rst3]

36 mins ago, Dogfish Between Jetties said:

Or May/June flooding.

That would be awful. For fishing, gardening, just about everything. 

***

One thing about precipitation in New England is patterns seem to average out conditions over relatively short periods of time.

 

Two summers ago we had near record rains in July. Last summer we slipped into a drought. But drought conditions ended this January...finished off by the 5-7" of rain equivalent Massachusetts saw for the month--which was well above normal. February? It's been crazy dry, as well as warm. 

 

So there's definitely something there wrt "if it's been very dry/wet".. then we become increasingly due for a flip to the opposite to average things back out.

[mikez2]

12 mins ago, rst3 said:

That would be awful. For fishing, gardening, just about everything. 

***

One thing about precipitation in New England is patterns seem to average out conditions over relatively short periods of time.

 

Two summers ago we had near record rains in July. Last summer we slipped into a drought. But drought conditions ended this January...finished off by the 5-7" of rain equivalent Massachusetts saw for the month--which was well above normal. February? It's been crazy dry, as well as warm. 

 

So there's definitely something there wrt "if it's been very dry/wet".. then we become increasingly due for a flip to the opposite to average things back out.

This has been a very dry February. Despite the rain earlier in the year and last year, many vernal pools are low or dry. The creatures that breed in those pools will be screwed without snow melt if rains don't come soon.

 

[rst3]

21 mins ago, mikez2 said:

This has been a very dry February. Despite the rain earlier in the year and last year, many vernal pools are low or dry. The creatures that breed in those pools will be screwed without snow melt if rains don't come soon.

 

Well snow or not, at least this week looks to be a more active stretch that should help a bit with the vernal pools. 

[rst3]

Boston got a dusting today, so the Feb snow drought is over at Logan.

 

Next storm looks moist for SNE. 

One important thing to look for in any potential snow storm is the temperature profile at all levels of the atmosphere. Here in New England, one common feature is called "the warm nose".

It's a layer of above-freezing air a few thousand feet up, and when you plot it on a Skew-T atmospheric trace, it shows up as a nose-like feature that sticks out from the O°C freezing line

 

Snow forms higher up, but melts when it falls through the warm nose. If the temperature below the nose drops below freezing, the melted snow refreezes as sleet.

***

Unbelievable heat in the mid Atlantic and South, though NE stays on the cold side of the front.

 

80s in Washington DC, which has only happened once before in their recorded February weather history. 91F in Jacksonville..with below zero highs in Montana and North Dakota. Big time temperature clash.

 

110 degree temperature range in Continental US. Spread ranges from a high of 94F in south Texas, to a low of –18F in Montana.

[rst3]

Welp, I've seen enough.

Going all in on March forecast.

 

Cool and crappy. Definitely active with some chances for snow.

 

North Atlantic Oscillation is going negative, which sets up a Greenland Block.

 

Pacific/North American pattern looks to be finally giving up its record negative strength and shifting positive by early March 

 

–NAO plus +PNA = no more 60s 

 

And the Polar Vortex is all crapped up, and will couple with the troposphere in March. Decent chance that only adds to the effect here in NE. 

 

I don't see mild and springy weather returning any time soon. Could be lousy for awhile, with chances for snow over the next 3+ weeks. Likely typical March jobs with marginal temps and cement-like snow. Nothing big on radar yet, so until then might see just a series of nuisance storms and unsettled weather.

***

2wk temp anomaly forecast

 

Greenland Block

18000ft

[foxfai]

Half understanding your analysis.... appreciate all your effort

 

On that note, guess I am not draining my snowblower's gas just yet lol....

[unskunk]

you do realize that we just jinxed us all for the year because of this thread.........

GET OUT YOUR SHOVELS !!!

[rst3]

9 hours ago, foxfai said:

guess I am not draining my snowblower's gas just yet lol....

Definitely not..

20 hours ago, rst3 said:

Nothing big on radar yet

Apparently, fate has been tempted.

 

> 1st potential no'eastah coming into 'radar range' on the models.

 

I don't pay much attention to anything longer than 6-7 days out when it comes to signals for snowstorms. Sure, models can often pick up a future storm 10 or even 14 days out. But there's a lot of false positives at that range. And position/track can shift by many hundreds of miles. 

 

So this is what's **potentially on deck for the last day of February 

 

Pretty interesting signal.

Euro

 

GFS Ensemble

Shows clustering offshore, near the 40N/70W "benchmark"

 

40/70 Benchmark

 

Not sold on a storm yet though, because the signal isn't screaming red across every model. 

 

And way too early for snow maps. Maps can be wildly inaccurate >84hrs out. I say wait until 3 days before a storm, then start on tentative totals. From there, snow maps will continue to get refined until the storm is sitting right on top of us.

 

Let's see what shakes out over next few days, before we run and grab the bread and milk. 

Edited February 23 by rst3

[ReeferRob]

We're gonna get something Saturday, dunno what, but it sounds ugly.

[zak-striper]

So far today we got a couple inches of snow inside 128.

 

Edited February 23 by zak-striper