Does anyone remember a winter without snow??

[pogie_boy]

LOL   I'm sorry...  Every time I read this thread I get movie the trailer headline "The Day After Tomorrow" playing in my head.

 

Doesn't help that I saw it the other day.  It was on TV.  So I watched it.  I'm a lemming.

[z-man]

It’s around 60 degrees hotter today than it was last weekend. Crazy!

[rst3]

Somewhat related.

 

New England peach crop appears wiped out by last week's cold snap. Doesn't look good for fresh peaches this summer

 

[Jighead75]

Watch out for march in like a lion out like a lamb.

[north-shore fisha]

Im good with no snow.  My last day of school is June 16 with no snow days.  Looking forward to a long summer.

2015 sucked.

[codfish]

On 2/12/2023 at 8:08 PM, north-shore fisha said:

Im good with no snow.  My last day of school is June 16 with no snow days.  Looking forward to a long summer.

2015 sucked.

[FishermanTim]

It's weird because I have mixed feelings about snowy winters.

Good because snowy usually means cold, and cold usually means ice fishing.

I haven't gone yet this season because of the lack of good ice in eastern MA

Also, a good snow cover would usually mean a slow melt that supplied all the spring growth with sufficient water and would add to the water table.

 

Bad because although less snow usually means warmer temps, it can mean drier conditions and if we get all rain, it tends to run off rather then sink into the soil. Sure, it will also mean less fuel used to heat homes, but if you crank up the heat regardless of the temps the savings go out the window.

 

I would prefer a snowy winter for the good reasons, and because it makes you THINK of winter, and not a cold dreary spring or fall day.

[rst3]

The end of winter is coming fast. There's a little more clarity now on the look ahead for the final month. 

 

A week ago there were some signs that winter might re-emerge for the final month of the season.

That no longer appears to be the case.

 

The endless Southeast Ridge keeps on trucking. We're not going to get much going for cold and snow with that thing out there. (though some cold will leak east later this week from the troughiness out west)

 

Comparing this week+next, against 3 weeks from now, shows the signal for warmth fading down to average-ish, or a little above. 

 

 

Pretty strong signal^ for torch warmth in Europe and Asia though, week 3/4. That's being linked to the Polar Vortex disruption that's going on now. Folks were looking for shifts in atmospheric patterns in response to the PV event that would affect the Northeast, but it doesn't look like much impact here for a couple weeks at least..and the runway for serious snowstorms in SNE pretty much ends mid-March. 

 

Outside shot at colder & (poss) storms with snow? > If the Polar Vortex splits, and a daughter Vortex drifts down and parks over New England..it could lead to a closed tropospheric low below it...which would be colder and stormier for us.

 

***

Our next shot for snow comes in a week though. Setup now favors Northern New England, with SNE possibly missing out.

 

Boston has only recorded 3 snowless Februarys in the past 150 years. If they skunk next Thursday, it'll be #4.

Edited February 17 by rst3

[bradW]

lived on cape my whole life. plenty of years with little to no snow. although this winter does seem odd. i keep telling my kid that June is probably gonna suck  

[VitaminDee]

Purchased a house almost 2 years ago and I still need a snowblower... maybe i'll hold off for another year. 

[foxfai]

2 hours ago, VitaminDee said:

Purchased a house almost 2 years ago and I still need a snowblower... maybe i'll hold off for another year. 

To be honest, in a month they all will be on sale and no body wants them. Get it this year for next year.

[pogie_boy]

18 hours ago, rst3 said:

Polar Vortex disruption

 

Disruption in the Polar Vortex can mean only one thing:   THE DAY AFTER TOMORROW!

[WorcBoy]

You guys want snow?

I'll swap the snowblower and mower in my garage this weekend.

You are welcome. 

 

[MakoMike]

Been holding off entering this discussion since I don’t live in MA. Where I live, in Newtown CT in the last ten years or so, I can count several years when I never had to plow or snow blow my driveway. Does that count?

[rst3]

Models back to windshield wipering, trying to figure out March.

 

Here's a look at 4 consecutive runs on the atmospheric "height" up at 18,000 feet. Back and forth with totally opposite solutions, on runs just 6hrs apart. One run a big High shows over Greenland...the next it just disappears.

One big question is whether a negative North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO) gets going, which tends to lead to a big high pressure block over Greenland and Eastern Canada^, and can usher in cold and storminess to New England.

 

...But a continued negative Pacific/North American(PNA) pattern would blunt the effects of a –NAO, and limit how cold and stormy it gets.

 

What if the PNA goes positive? (and the NAO turns negative) ..well March could enter the suck zone for weather. That would favor chilly and active times. 

 

There's also the 'outside bank shot' for cold and storms in March, which is if the Polar Vortex splits and a daughter Vortex parks over the Northeast...and a closed tropospheric low develops over us in response. 

 

I'd wait a week before betting on March. Just too much uncertainty to get a handle on what's in store for the northeast.

 

Bottom line though‐-

The sun is fast gaining strength in the Northern Hemisphere..and a cold shot in mid March is not like a mid January shot. Snowstorms in March, in New England, are often sloppy..with borderline temps.. and locations at elevation or up north typically doing much better than the coastal plain.

***

The most reliable outlook for March comes from the Climate Prediction Center. Their latest doesn't show much of a signal either way for the northeast, but the strong signal for Southeast warmth is typical of la nina and a –PNA. 

***

Couple chances for winter weather on deck for us in the next week or so. Jury is still out on eastern Mass.

Edited February 19 by rst3