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Garden Weather

 

Pretty much everyone saw some rain today, and a few areas seem to have picked up another inch+.

Screenshot_20230714_164051_RadarScope.jpg.df87f6a09fc042e6d732343e16217d0b.jpg

 

But there was kind of an interesting weather model battle over where a very intense rain belt would set up shop. 

 

Some models had it north..

20230713_110110.jpg.d282b608c7b2cd15700ea70a475b5cde.jpg

 

...others like the NAM 3km picked up on a signal towards the south coast.

20230713_110117.jpg.0d5a4818ef3a38768731581234483cb3.jpg

 

 

In reality? no model had a tight bead on this one. But the NAM came the closest: a near stationary training thunderstorm developed 75-100miles off the south coast. And dropped 6-8" inches of rain over some fish. 

 

Model:20230713_110117.jpg.0d5a4818ef3a38768731581234483cb3.jpg

 

Reality:

ezgif-1-1360e39339.gif.32bf62e0fd41fd4a57378f98b107ad7d.gif

Fishing kills me exactly as it keeps me alive.

Hemingway, Old Man and the Sea

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Fungicide been doing work. Holding blight back to a slow creep on my tomatoes, though the brandwine has been moderately affected. 

 

Some minor fungal damage to oldest crown leaves on cantaloupe, but nothing too bad..yet. No melon aphids spotted to date, which is unusual. Been a heavy year for cucumber beetles though. Fruit development going pretty well. One month to go.

***

Garden Forecast.

 

TLDR: Another soaker on Sunday. Widespread 1-2".. with potential for local pockets of 3-5". Strongest rains more likely in western areas.

20230715_175143.jpg.778164eccf5b7e9eabe4ab92eb2e6128.jpg

 

Week ahead: cyclonic flow aloft continues. A few mostly drier days, a few days with scattered storms and downpours. 

***

Technical Discussion 

 

The amount of precipitable water(PWAT) in the atmosphere tomorrow will be as high as it gets around here. Like a giant sponge totally full and dripping, just waiting for a hand to wring it out. In the atmosphere, that forcing hand will be a slooww moving front lumbering across New England throughout the day. 

 

PWAT

20230715_180207.jpg.758b7fdcce70c93affb32ae9e17513a9.jpg

 

Dew Point

20230715_180216.jpg.402b866f4c5254c6f1027f06d7c32f3e.jpg

 

"Yet another round of soaking rains will reignite a flood threat for much of southern New England on Sunday. Most of the CWA is under a Moderate risk for Excessive Rainfall, and the most far southeast Massachusetts; Plymouth County, Cape Cod, and the Islands under a Slight threat for Excessive Rainfall.

 

Our setup for Sunday is impressive with PWATs exceeding 200 percent of normal, with a maxima between 2.4 and 2.8 inches! This is near the maximum value for model run climatology across the CWA.

 

The convective allowing models (CAMs) are in fair agreement that a building line of showers with embedded thunder will approach from the west, reaching the New York/Massachusetts line around 9z/12z Sunday. SPC SHREF has higher probabilities our effective shear of 30 knots with lower probabilities of that exceeding 40 knots. This will help keep our storms organized. HREF mean does show a widespread 1.0 to 2.5 inches, with the max of 3.0 to 5.0 inches.

 

Since these totals are from convective showers, it becomes difficult to pinpoint which area will experience the heaviest rainfall. Overall, most places likely to see between 1.0 and 2.0 inches with locally higher amounts over 3.0 inches. And given our current Flash Flood Guidance is 1.4 to 1.8 inches, flash flooding remains our primary concern Sunday morning through the afternoon."

Fishing kills me exactly as it keeps me alive.

Hemingway, Old Man and the Sea

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15 mins ago, rst3 said:

Fungicide been doing work. Holding blight back to a slow creep on my tomatoes, though the brandwine has been moderately affected. 

 

Some minor fungal damage to oldest crown leaves on cantaloupe, but nothing too bad..yet. No melon aphids spotted to date, which is unusual. Been a heavy year for cucumber beetles though. Fruit development going pretty well. One month to go.

***

Garden Forecast.

 

TLDR: Another soaker on Sunday. Widespread 1-2".. with potential for local pockets of 3-5". Strongest rains more likely in western areas.

20230715_175143.jpg.778164eccf5b7e9eabe4ab92eb2e6128.jpg

 

Week ahead: cyclonic flow aloft continues. A few mostly drier days, a few days with scattered storms and downpours. 

***

Technical Discussion 

 

The amount of precipitable water(PWAT) in the atmosphere tomorrow will be as high as it gets around here. Like a giant sponge totally full and dripping, just waiting for a hand to wring it out. In the atmosphere, that forcing hand will be a slooww moving front lumbering across New England throughout the day. 

 

PWAT

20230715_180207.jpg.758b7fdcce70c93affb32ae9e17513a9.jpg

 

Dew Point

20230715_180216.jpg.402b866f4c5254c6f1027f06d7c32f3e.jpg

 

"Yet another round of soaking rains will reignite a flood threat for much of southern New England on Sunday. Most of the CWA is under a Moderate risk for Excessive Rainfall, and the most far southeast Massachusetts; Plymouth County, Cape Cod, and the Islands under a Slight threat for Excessive Rainfall.

 

Our setup for Sunday is impressive with PWATs exceeding 200 percent of normal, with a maxima between 2.4 and 2.8 inches! This is near the maximum value for model run climatology across the CWA.

 

The convective allowing models (CAMs) are in fair agreement that a building line of showers with embedded thunder will approach from the west, reaching the New York/Massachusetts line around 9z/12z Sunday. SPC SHREF has higher probabilities our effective shear of 30 knots with lower probabilities of that exceeding 40 knots. This will help keep our storms organized. HREF mean does show a widespread 1.0 to 2.5 inches, with the max of 3.0 to 5.0 inches.

 

Since these totals are from convective showers, it becomes difficult to pinpoint which area will experience the heaviest rainfall. Overall, most places likely to see between 1.0 and 2.0 inches with locally higher amounts over 3.0 inches. And given our current Flash Flood Guidance is 1.4 to 1.8 inches, flash flooding remains our primary concern Sunday morning through the afternoon."

Excellent … always great weather analysis rst3, thank you 

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Heard the emergency alert post on my phone so decided to dust off the ol storm chasin' shoes and make a run for it. A weak rotation couplet, looks like it's passing 1/4 mi south of me at the Chelmsford rest stop as I type. Blinding rain. Ready to go to Oz...

KBOX-Super-ResVelocityTilt18_32AM.gif.f79e094a8b3d7b8a2de599cd782bed4e.gif

Fishing kills me exactly as it keeps me alive.

Hemingway, Old Man and the Sea

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Dammit. I' didn't get to Oz. :/.

 

Completely black wall of rain and cloud moved over 495 as mesovortex passed over. No wind, so I doubt the rotation put down an actual pipe – any gardeners/farmers in its path would be fine with their crops. Unless the rain physically flattened the plants. Which is a distinct possibility.

 

Clouds upstairs were definitely rotating though. 

 

Pretty good chase for an old fart. 1/4mi away.

KBOX-Super-ResVelocityTilt18_42AM.gif.f13f67b2368f819c3cdc3b903ce5c584.gif

Fishing kills me exactly as it keeps me alive.

Hemingway, Old Man and the Sea

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2 hours ago, rst3 said:

Dammit. I' didn't get to Oz. :/.

 

Completely black wall of rain and cloud moved over 495 as mesovortex passed over. No wind, so I doubt the rotation put down an actual pipe – any gardeners/farmers in its path would be fine with their crops. Unless the rain physically flattened the plants. Which is a distinct possibility.

 

Clouds upstairs were definitely rotating though. 

 

Pretty good chase for an old fart. 1/4mi away.

KBOX-Super-ResVelocityTilt18_42AM.gif.f13f67b2368f819c3cdc3b903ce5c584.gif

Got pounded earlier with about 15 minutes of torrential rains. Man this is the worst summer I can remember in a while. 

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16 mins ago, gray gables said:

Got pounded earlier with about 15 minutes of torrential rains. Man this is the worst summer I can remember in a while. 

What's interesting to me is we had a really tough July two years ago; most got 6-12" of rain, depending on location. Was even record breaking in spots.

 

But completely different reasons for the rains that July vs this year.

 

And June and August 2021 were great. Unfortunately that July was so rainy I lost my cantaloupe entirely, and it half ruined my winter squash.

 

But unlike 2021..which just had a rotten month, this entire summer is shaping up to be lousy...and most likely will be the worst since 2009. That whole summer was the pits.

***

Heading out late tonight for tuna.. but small craft adv of course. :|. 

Should be fine in larger boat we're in, just annoying. Don't get a ton of SCAs in mid summer... when it's sometimes almost too calm offshore. This year's weather just blows

Fishing kills me exactly as it keeps me alive.

Hemingway, Old Man and the Sea

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9 mins ago, rst3 said:

What's interesting to me is we had a really tough July two years ago; most got 6-12" of rain, depending on location. Was even record breaking in spots.

 

But completely different reasons for the rains that July vs this year.

 

And June and August 2021 were great. Unfortunately that July was so rainy I lost my cantaloupe entirely, and it half ruined my winter squash.

 

But unlike 2021..which just had a rotten month, this entire summer is shaping up to be lousy...and most likely will be the worst since 2009. That whole summer was the pits.

***

Heading out late tonight for tuna.. but small craft adv of course. :|. 

Should be fine in larger boat we're in, just annoying. Don't get a ton of SCAs in mid summer... when it's sometimes almost too calm offshore. This year's weather just blows

I remember that summer of 21. I’m self employed doing carpentry work. Luckily for me that whole year my work was all inside thank god. The guys that are outside doing/trying to work have been getting killed this year. Hopefully this pattern breaks sooner than later. 

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Those dewpoints are just nuts. Won't take much atmospheric disturbance to wring out buckets of water.

 

Tornado watches issued for much of Mass through 3 PM.

 

The only living things that enjoy this humidity and all the standing water are mosquitoes. I don't usually go crazy with repellent, but it's almost a must for any woods walking now. I saw people wearing headnets the other day. 

Pfantum Pfishah

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