The Season- A Rundown 2023

[HYB_Living]

Ended up tossing the first diamond jig today…felt like I kept catching the same fish over and over again. 

[MoroneSax]

[Rough]

19 hours ago, HYB_Living said:

…felt like I kept catching the same fish over and over again. 

 

It is not by accident. If one compares the sizes (=age) of the fish being caught these days, these match exactly the three good juvenile acquisition years of the past decade, 2015, 2017, and 2018. The problem is what comes next. The juvenile acquisition indexes for 2016, 2019, 2020, and 2021 are dramatically lower, between 3 and 5 times. They are worse than before the 1977-86 collapse. This issue has been raised and discussed here multiple times in previous years. I recall @CWitek had posted some useful data. As far as I understand, 2022 numbers were not encouraging either.

[CWitek]

12 mins ago, Rough said:

 

It is not by accident. If one compares the sizes (=age) of the fish being caught these days, these match exactly the three good juvenile acquisition years of the past decade, 2015, 2017, and 2018. The problem is what comes next. The juvenile acquisition indexes for 2016, 2019, 2020, and 2021 are dramatically lower, between 3 and 5 times. They are worse than before the 1977-86 collapse. This issue has been raised and discussed here multiple times in previous years. I recall @CWitek had posted some useful data. As far as I understand, 2022 numbers were not encouraging either.

It's actually worse than you describe.

 

2023 was the second-lowest juvenile abundance index in a Maryland data series stretching back to 1957, 1.02 versus a long-term average of 11.1.

 

The five year average of the Maryland juvenile abundance index is the lowest five-year average ever recorded, even lower than any five year period that occurred immediately before or during the last stock collapse--by a considerable margin.  The average Maryuland JAI for the past five years is just 2.74, while the worst five year period during the late 1970s and 1980s was 3.45.

 

And it's not only Maryland.  Virginia's juvenile abundance index for each of the last three years was in the 25th percentile--the lowesdt 25%--of that time series.  The Delaware River juvenile abundance index for 2021 and 2022 was in the 25th percentile of the data series from that river.  2020 might or might not have been equally low, but because sampling was interrupted by C"OVID, we don't have the data for that year.  2023 numbers aren't out yet.

 

Only the Hudson River has been holding up reasonably well.

 

As you observed, current abundance patterns correlate well with the available data.  Some very big fish from the 2001 and 2003 Maryland year classes.  The 40-pound stuff in Raritan Bay and New York Bight from the big 2007 year class in the Hudson.  Low 29=-pound stuff from 2011.  Mid-teens from 2015.  Just shorts from 2017 and 2918,  

 

And just about nothing coming up after that.

 

[HYB_Living]

37 mins ago, Rough said:

 

It is not by accident. If one compares the sizes (=age) of the fish being caught these days, these match exactly the three good juvenile acquisition years of the past decade, 2015, 2017, and 2018. The problem is what comes next. The juvenile acquisition indexes for 2016, 2019, 2020, and 2021 are dramatically lower, between 3 and 5 times. They are worse than before the 1977-86 collapse. This issue has been raised and discussed here multiple times in previous years. I recall @CWitek had posted some useful data. As far as I understand, 2022 numbers were not encouraging either.

Well it mostly just feels like it’s that time of the year for us on Long Island where the mass of larger fish are all in Jersey. Although I do feel like in recent years the schoolies are a lot fatter and almost look like large football sized albies but these guys are thin like what I would expect to catch in the early spring. Very odd for sure 

[hobobob]

30 mins ago, HYB_Living said:

Well it mostly just feels like it’s that time of the year for us on Long Island where the mass of larger fish are all in Jersey. Although I do feel like in recent years the schoolies are a lot fatter and almost look like large football sized albies but these guys are thin like what I would expect to catch in the early spring. Very odd for sure 

 

Abundance of baits are missing from our local bays and near the surf.  Especially when are in the western section of LI.   Weed problem are worst than ever.   Water temp? Too much nutrient in the water? 

[HYB_Living]

18 mins ago, hobobob said:

 

Abundance of baits are missing from our local bays and near the surf.  Especially when are in the western section of LI.   Weed problem are worst than ever.   Water temp? Too much nutrient in the water? 

I honestly had no complaints about this fall until a week or two ago when I felt like things changed in matter of flipping a switch without any real weather systems to stir the pot. I was on teen - high 20lb bass during the days and nights and I felt as if thing stayed their course weather wise I’d be fishing until December. I’m not skunking or anything but it wasn’t even a gradual progression it just dropped right off into skinny small bass. Most likely just getting humbled by the fact it’s the end of November but I didn’t expect such a steep drop off in the quality/quantity. Like even the boat guys are feeling it. Felt like I saw 30lb+ fish photos every hour of the day to guys struggling to find the big mass of them now in the matter of a few tides. Whatever weather system is predicted for before thanksgiving this week will a probably put a stop to whatever small bite was left.

Edited November 20 by HYB_Living

[MoroneSax]

We just came off a moon 

 

fish n bait move on the moons 

 

theyre migrating 

They moved 

[MoroneSax]

I do agree with all the above said posts in regards to broodstock

mortality 

 

the water is too polluted where they spawn down south from pig farms 

 

n environmental changes have influenced weather patterns making it even tougher for eggs to reach maturity and hatch 

[LowEnd]

Fished after work today for 3 shorties. Saw 2 other fish come up.

No signs of bait, birds or boats after making 3 stops.
A lot of discontent on everyone’s face today. 

[the3fishheads]

Pulled a doz shorties fished an hour till sunset. Lots of short strikes.

Some bait and a couple seals around.

Those big fish blitzes rooned me.

[Antek]

Made it back out to the SS this afternoon from high water to sunset. Guys heading out when I was going in said they didn’t catch anything on the flow. Nice whitewater, some rough surf, but no visible bait in the wash apart from sand fleas. Minor bird action on occasion, but way out of casting range. Couple of big seals cruising along the outer bar. Worked the beach with the heavy needlefish, topwater, bucktails, and swimmers for a few hours without a tap. Avoided the skunk right before sunset when a upper-20s” schoolie hit my diamond jig/teaser combo right in front of the lip. Couldn’t repeat, and packed up and left as darkness fell. Only saw one other guy hook up, same class fish, also on the diamond. Lotta frustrated faces today. I keep saying that this is my last trip down south this season, but I think this is really it.

 

After a brief spate of action, things are dead locally in the WLIS. Hardly seeing any of the bay anchovies that were around recently, and no other bait. Times are so tough I got the birds following me, circling and looking for signs of life. 0 for like 5 for the last week. Still hoping things turn around. One year it didn’t light up here until Black Friday, so I still have hope it’ll turn around yet. 

 

 

[Rough]

18 hours ago, CWitek said:

It's actually worse than you describe.

 

2023 was the second-lowest juvenile abundance index in a Maryland data series stretching back to 1957, 1.02 versus a long-term average of 11.1.

 

The five year average of the Maryland juvenile abundance index is the lowest five-year average ever recorded, even lower than any five year period that occurred immediately before or during the last stock collapse--by a considerable margin.  The average Maryuland JAI for the past five years is just 2.74, while the worst five year period during the late 1970s and 1980s was 3.45.

 

And it's not only Maryland.  Virginia's juvenile abundance index for each of the last three years was in the 25th percentile--the lowesdt 25%--of that time series.  The Delaware River juvenile abundance index for 2021 and 2022 was in the 25th percentile of the data series from that river.  2020 might or might not have been equally low, but because sampling was interrupted by C"OVID, we don't have the data for that year.  2023 numbers aren't out yet.

 

Only the Hudson River has been holding up reasonably well.

 

As you observed, current abundance patterns correlate well with the available data.  Some very big fish from the 2001 and 2003 Maryland year classes.  The 40-pound stuff in Raritan Bay and New York Bight from the big 2007 year class in the Hudson.  Low 29=-pound stuff from 2011.  Mid-teens from 2015.  Just shorts from 2017 and 2918,  

 

And just about nothing coming up after that.

 

Let me try to outline this soon to unfold strange future of striped bass fishing. If I understand well, two or three years from now there will be some big fish around, way above the current slot limit, but those will be becoming fewer and fewer given various mortality reasons, natural or not. Smaller fish will be equally rare or even rarer. Some of us will be finding a school of fish here and there and having fun, most will not. This is what the new collapse will look like, I am afraid.

[CWitek]

31 mins ago, Rough said:

Let me try to outline this soon to unfold strange future of striped bass fishing. If I understand well, two or three years from now there will be some big fish around, way above the current slot limit, but those will be becoming fewer and fewer given various mortality reasons, natural or not. Smaller fish will be equally rare or even rarer. Some of us will be finding a school of fish here and there and having fun, most will not. This is what the new collapse will look like, I am afraid.

That's more or less whaa happened the last time.

 

There were some extremely good big fish bites at Block Island and the outer Cape, bites so good that many anglers refused to believe that there was a problem.

 

Fish could always be picked in the summer core area--basically eastern Long Island to Cape Cod--although numbers were down in most of that area.

 

During the spring and fall, and particularly during the fall migration, some folks would happen to hit a school of fish of varioius sizes, and bragged about how good the fishing was.

 

Because the Hudson was still producing, there could be decent fishing inn the New York Bight; but as the Hudson fish spread out to fill the niche left behind by the collapsed Chesapeake bass, they could be spread pretty thin.

 

For most of us, for most of the time, we hunted unicorns.  Sometimes we found one.  Usually we didn't, but we tried just the same.

[hobobob]

14 hours ago, Antek said:

Made it back out to the SS this afternoon from high water to sunset. Guys heading out when I was going in said they didn’t catch anything on the flow. Nice whitewater, some rough surf, but no visible bait in the wash apart from sand fleas. Minor bird action on occasion, but way out of casting range. Couple of big seals cruising along the outer bar. Worked the beach with the heavy needlefish, topwater, bucktails, and swimmers for a few hours without a tap. Avoided the skunk right before sunset when a upper-20s” schoolie hit my diamond jig/teaser combo right in front of the lip. Couldn’t repeat, and packed up and left as darkness fell. Only saw one other guy hook up, same class fish, also on the diamond. Lotta frustrated faces today. I keep saying that this is my last trip down south this season, but I think this is really it.

 

After a brief spate of action, things are dead locally in the WLIS. Hardly seeing any of the bay anchovies that were around recently, and no other bait. Times are so tough I got the birds following me, circling and looking for signs of life. 0 for like 5 for the last week. Still hoping things turn around. One year it didn’t light up here until Black Friday, so I still have hope it’ll turn around yet. 

 

 

 

People looked at me like I have 3 heads when I told them there is no bait around.  Apart from a few critical spots with constant current flows, it's void of life on the western LI.  Whatever the reason, I don't know.   Even the usual smaller resident fish are fewer and far in between.