R.R. Bridge Fisher

Fiona

Rate this topic

103 posts in this topic

I always seem to get the timing wrong with storms.  either I'm there a day early and it's flat calm or I'm there when the water is already coffee milk and I get beat up for nothing.

 

maybe I should keep a journal

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 mins ago, pogie_boy said:

I always seem to get the timing wrong with storms.  either I'm there a day early and it's flat calm or I'm there when the water is already coffee milk and I get beat up for nothing.

I blow the timing all the time. 

Usually too early with noreasters, before the wind has a chance to get the seas going.

 

Swell seems more predictable.

 

Groundswell peaks Fri night with Hurricane off the Carolinas, at probably 120-130mph. 

Picsart_22-09-20_17-04-15-444.jpg.85721115ab8cb8b83cd307e0966aeaff.jpg

 

Saturday the windfield broadens as the Hurricane races NNE and transitions into a powerful ocean low at 75-90mph, but bigger than a Hurricane 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
21 mins ago, rst3 said:

I blow the timing all the time. 

Usually too early with noreasters, before the wind has a chance to get the seas going.

 

Swell seems more predictable.

 

Groundswell peaks Fri night with Hurricane off the Carolinas, at probably 120-130mph. 

Picsart_22-09-20_17-04-15-444.jpg.85721115ab8cb8b83cd307e0966aeaff.jpg

 

Saturday the windfield broadens as the Hurricane races NNE and transitions into a powerful ocean low at 75-90mph, but bigger than a Hurricane 

Am I reading that correctly that wave heights will be 9 feet Friday morning?

On shore?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 min ago, R.R. Bridge Fisher said:

6 feet?

Yeah, looks more like six for the am and 9 for pm.

Decent surf no matter how you look at it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think the misleading part is that this thing is expecting to merge with a low pressure system, and while the center stays offshore, the precip and wind fields are expected to expand. So we may be in for a bit of a gale during that time frame. Too far offshore and wrong track to become another Sandy...but the same kind of ingredients, but far enough offshore to avoid that situation

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Posted (edited)

2 hours ago, mikez2 said:

Yeah, looks more like six for the am and 9 for pm.

Decent surf no matter how you look at it.

Yes. This is an average south coastal beach surf forecast too. Some areas will see a bit less..some others--like the Avenues of Gansett--a bit more. 

 

Peak wave is probably Fri evening high tide, at 7pm. 

Edited by rst3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, albacized said:

I think the misleading part is that this thing is expecting to merge with a low pressure system, and while the center stays offshore, the precip and wind fields are expected to expand. So we may be in for a bit of a gale during that time frame. Too far offshore and wrong track to become another Sandy...but the same kind of ingredients, but far enough offshore to avoid that situation

Maritimes are going to get hammered though. Large belt of sustained 60-70kt winds should move on shore, resulting in widespread damage. 

 

Trailer Park Boys better button down the matches

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The good news is that for the next 6 days or so, the wind is going to be from some westerly directly (several days of NW, then SW on Thur, back to NW after that (including during the storm's passage offshore)...I was fearlful of some NE wind turning some of the cape side waters into mud...and to that point, areas that are exposed to the swell will likely become muddy and weedy. But more protected spots should remain clean

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Posted (edited)

Fiona intensifying again this evening, after an eyewall replacement cycle. Up to 125mph.

Screenshot_20220920-235503_Gallery.jpg.967fde0fe047894762d3547f1f13a1dd.jpg

Some mod SW shear impeding venting on western semicircle..as indicated by lack of feathering cirrus outflow. But environment is very moist(white color in water vapor imagery, vs dry air purple) and ocean heat content pretty high. So storm should fight off the shear and slowly intensify for another day.

 

Should peak in 24-36hrs as a high end 3 or low end Cat 4, 130-140mph. 

 

After that it begins to lose a little gas(heat) and should slowly weaken.

 

Will eventually interact with a vigorous trough coming off the Northeastern US Coast and become a very powerful extratropical cyclone 

20220920_234220.jpg.d6e9123211efc983829b3070a92f453f.jpg

20220921_000355.jpg.c9f419b88a2351f87c121182443446cc.jpg

 

Areas of Newfoundland and Nova Scotia going to get hammered. A 928/930mb low. That's silly low air pressure for a north Atlantic storm. 

 

For comparison:

Blizzard of 78... 982mb

632a89bb0d043_images(28).jpeg.0070a789742c502ef143230e0f0d601b.jpeg

 

2013 Nemo Blizzard...968mb

storm_nemo_fig3.jpg.dd8ea816cb6ed7aab379efcd2a1f19fb.jpg

 

Superstorm Sandy...945mb

Superstorm_Sandy_on_10-30-2012.png.4d8790e04e37a6bc8f79e8c8248abb45.png

Edited by rst3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to register here in order to participate.

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!


Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.


Sign In Now

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.