Ukraine?

[BrianBM]

2 hours ago, Heron25 said:

Russia has also invaded other countries, no one gave a **** because they were in Asia.  China has annexed and punished Tibet since the 50's- how much military weaponry, financial aid and humanitarian support have we sent them and continue to send to them? 

 

Ukraine isn't 100% against being a part of Russia, that's why it isn't a black and white issue.  Ukraine also isn't a part of NATO, so the US has no obligation to be involved in this conflict.  Russia is evil and corrupt, Ukraine is evil and corrupt.  Let Europe take care of it if they feel the need.  

None of the other invasions that you mention would, if successfully completed, so well position Russia for further assaults on European soil, as this one.  Tibet has the misfortune of being geographically isolated, and there's not a damn thing we can do to help them.

 

There have been enough Ukrainians who wanted to rejoin Russia to support local insurgencies in the Donbas, without a doubt. It also can't be doubted that most Ukrainians want no part of being governed from the Kremlin, or by Kremlin designees. Ukraine would never have cohered politically, or been able to muster so fierce a defense, if Zelensky's defiance was not representative of popular opinion. Ukrainian casualties have been brutal, probably as bad as Russia's casualties, or worse; if you count the civilians killed by Russian bombardments, Ukraine's war dead greatly outnumber Russian losses. (No one is bombarding Russian cities). And Ukraine was moving nicely into the Western world of free enterprise and elected government. This is what the U.S. has traditionally valued and sought to encourage.

 

Coming back to immediate American self-interest, the Baltic states are NATO members. If Russia invades them, we'll  be directly at war with Russia.  Putin has said that they should never have been allowed to become independent. They, too, have substantial Russian-speaking minorities. Is it possible to realistically doubt that if Ukraine's conquest had been speedily completed, they would have been the next target?

 

Better, much better, to see the Russian Army tied in knots, kept at bay for the time being. I'd much rather see Ukrainians using American and NATO weapons to fight the Russians than see Americans having to do so.

[BassRashThumb]

It’s a rare convergence of moral clarity and geopolitical self interest all made possible by the tenacity of the Ukrainian resistance.
 

America should continue to take advantage of the opportunity. 

[Heron25]

39 mins ago, BrianBM said:

None of the other invasions that you mention would, if successfully completed, so well position Russia for further assaults on European soil, as this one.  Tibet has the misfortune of being geographically isolated, and there's not a damn thing we can do to help them.

 

There have been enough Ukrainians who wanted to rejoin Russia to support local insurgencies in the Donbas, without a doubt. It also can't be doubted that most Ukrainians want no part of being governed from the Kremlin, or by Kremlin designees. Ukraine would never have cohered politically, or been able to muster so fierce a defense, if Zelensky's defiance was not representative of popular opinion. Ukrainian casualties have been brutal, probably as bad as Russia's casualties, or worse; if you count the civilians killed by Russian bombardments, Ukraine's war dead greatly outnumber Russian losses. (No one is bombarding Russian cities). And Ukraine was moving nicely into the Western world of free enterprise and elected government. This is what the U.S. has traditionally valued and sought to encourage.

 

Coming back to immediate American self-interest, the Baltic states are NATO members. If Russia invades them, we'll  be directly at war with Russia.  Putin has said that they should never have been allowed to become independent. They, too, have substantial Russian-speaking minorities. Is it possible to realistically doubt that if Ukraine's conquest had been speedily completed, they would have been the next target?

 

Better, much better, to see the Russian Army tied in knots, kept at bay for the time being. I'd much rather see Ukrainians using American and NATO weapons to fight the Russians than see Americans having to do so.

Russia has Belarus in it's pocket already.  If it wanted to invade Europe, the path is open.   You also realize if the Caucasus nations fall, then Turkey (a NATO member) is right there, correct?  

 

If Russia invades the Baltic States, which they haven't, then that's a different story.  Putin can say whatever he wants, his actions matter more.    Russia's invasion into Ukraine, IMO, has more to do with Putin trying to disrupt globalist financial interests and plans vs. Ukraine itself.   

Edited August 9, 2022 by Heron25

[BassRashThumb]

4 mins ago, Heron25 said:

Russia has Belarus in it's pocket already.  If it wanted to invade Europe, the path is open.   

 

If Russia invades the Baltic States, which they haven't, then that's a different story.  Putin can say whatever he wants, his actions matter more.    Russia's invasion into Ukraine, IMO, has more to do with Putin trying to disrupt globalist financial interests and plans vs. Ukraine itself.   

Interesting. 
 

A major action like a war often serves many interests and motivations. 

 

I’d bet that Putin was getting regular updates on movement of oil prices on invasion day and takes great satisfaction that Europe is funding the war they detest.
 

Maybe the Kremlin even thought the war would turn a short-term profit. Pump and dump, Russian style? 

[KarpsnKatz]

The Left: Ukrainian democracy? Are you kidding? It must be protected at all costs, even if it means WWIII!

 

Also the left: Democracy in Tibet, Honk Kong, or Taiwan? Meh, sounds like too much trouble.

[BrianBM]

40 mins ago, Heron25 said:

Russia has Belarus in it's pocket already.  If it wanted to invade Europe, the path is open.   You also realize if the Caucasus nations fall, then Turkey (a NATO member) is right there, correct?  

 

If Russia invades the Baltic States, which they haven't, then that's a different story.  Putin can say whatever he wants, his actions matter more.    Russia's invasion into Ukraine, IMO, has more to do with Putin trying to disrupt globalist financial interests and plans vs. Ukraine itself.   

I don't see Putin's primary motivation as setting up a drive into Central Europe. First, he wants to recover the imagined glories of the former Soviet Empire; that would be the Baltic States, after Ukraine. Second, he wants a cordon sanitaire against the creeping influence of the West. Belarus is more or less governed by Russia now; the attempt at a color revolution there was suppressed, with the help of Russia. Ukraine was and is a menace to Putinism's government by crony precisely because Ukraine was attracting substantial foreign investment, and getting increasingly more engaged with western Europe.

 

Turkey has a fair amount of military muscle, but whether Erdogan would be willing to act as a part of NATO in repelling Russia from expanding through Transnistria (I assume that's what you meant?) is iffy.

 

 

[eryv]

Just now, BrianBM said:

I note that the head of Amnesty Int'l in Ukraine just resigned in protest over that report.

Of course. All these corupted officials should follow the Nazi government. Until Zelensky will get his final decision somewere at ruins of Kiev.

[Heron25]

1 min ago, BrianBM said:

I don't see Putin's primary motivation as setting up a drive into Central Europe. First, he wants to recover the imagined glories of the former Soviet Empire; that would be the Baltic States, after Ukraine. Second, he wants a cordon sanitaire against the creeping influence of the West. Belarus is more or less governed by Russia now; the attempt at a color revolution there was suppressed, with the help of Russia. Ukraine was and is a menace to Putinism's government by crony precisely because Ukraine was attracting substantial foreign investment, and getting increasingly more engaged with western Europe.

 

Turkey has a fair amount of military muscle, but whether Erdogan would be willing to act as a part of NATO in repelling Russia from expanding through Transnistria (I assume that's what you meant?) is iffy.

 

 

he's going to get the Baltic states aligned with him again.  It won't be thru use of force though.  He's trying to drive a wedge thru the EU using natural resources.  Brexit gave him the idea that the EU isn't as much a union as appears.  EU covid policies ostracized and angered some of the Eastern European leaders.   Putin sees the cracks- he's trying to turn them into holes. 

[BassRashThumb]

7 mins ago, KarpsnKatz said:

The Left: Ukrainian democracy? Are you kidding? It must be protected at all costs, even if it means WWIII!

 

Also the left: Democracy in Tibet, Honk Kong, or Taiwan? Meh, sounds like too much trouble.

American’s support for Ukraine is widespread and not simplistically attached to political affiliation. And most of those supporters have concerns about the costs and possible escalation. 
 

I do think it’s fair to question how and why we choose overseas commitments. 
 

[Heron25]

20 mins ago, KarpsnKatz said:

The Left: Ukrainian democracy? Are you kidding? It must be protected at all costs, even if it means WWIII!

 

Also the left: Democracy in Tibet, Honk Kong, or Taiwan? Meh, sounds like too much trouble.

I didn't want to say anything...

[BrianBM]

We can't do much about Tibet (nothing, actually) or Hong Kong. Ukraine is a crime we can address, and one that has a far more immediate consequences for our self-interest.

[BrianBM]

6 mins ago, Heron25 said:

he's going to get the Baltic states aligned with him again.  It won't be thru use of force though.

Will he, realistically, have any other option? The more recently a country was governed from Moscow, the more fearful it is of being governed by Moscow again. Lithuania, per capita, has been the biggest single contributor to Ukraine's defense. All the Baltics have been buying Israeli and NATO - standard military hardware.

6 mins ago, Heron25 said:

  He's trying to drive a wedge thru the EU using natural resources. 

Yes he is.

6 mins ago, Heron25 said:

 

Brexit gave him the idea that the EU isn't as much a union as appears.  EU covid policies ostracized and angered some of the Eastern European leaders.   Putin sees the cracks- he's trying to turn them into holes. 

If there's one thing guaranteed to remind Europe to pull together, it was this invasion. Putting a gun to Europe's head has done a marvelous job of causing most of Europe to put earlier quarrels aside.

[eryv]

55 mins ago, BassRashThumb said:

moral clarity 

I guess you do not know what that is mean - Nazi run ukraine government. When veterans of WWII are getting beaten while celebrating once per year the victory over Hitler. When all parties opposite to goverment goes to extinction. When people who have Russian news on their phone are disappearing. When the girls from those republic of people in Eastern Ukraine are raped because- and it was repeatedly told by presidents of Ukraine-they are not human.

[eryv]

13 mins ago, BassRashThumb said:

American’s support for Ukraine is widespread 

 

You can tell - sugar, sugar, sugar... And even honey... Did it make any sweet taste in your mouth?

[ifishthebadspots]

15 mins ago, Heron25 said:

he's going to get the Baltic states aligned with him again.  It won't be thru use of force though.  He's trying to drive a wedge thru the EU using natural resources.  Brexit gave him the idea that the EU isn't as much a union as appears.  EU covid policies ostracized and angered some of the Eastern European leaders.   Putin sees the cracks- he's trying to turn them into holes. 

Baltic states oppose Putin the most - they are requesting complete isolation of Russia, including banning visas to Europe, blocking trade and supplies to their Kaliningrad enclave. Your understanding of eastern european geopolitics is very off.

 

This is besides the fact that Russia will not be able to attack anyone else, as 85% of their military equipment has been activated in Ukraine. They will have nothing to push with for many years. They have no means to rebuild, as most of the electronics and other sensitive components were sourced elsewhere.

 

Poland, for instance,  will have the largest army in Europe shortly with vastly superior equipment to what Russia has. This is besides them being a NATO member. This is it for Russia.