Ukraine?

[KarpsnKatz]

Not at all. Some of these anti Russian narratives are beginning to sound unhinged. If we are to condemn tyranny wherever it rears its head, let’s be consistent.

[dwyak]

5 mins ago, KarpsnKatz said:

Not at all. Some of these anti Russian narratives are beginning to sound unhinged. If we are to condemn tyranny wherever it rears its head, let’s be consistent.

How about if you're going to condemn tyranny, maybe start with the most blatant, dangerous tyranny currently happening?   Then maybe work down the line.  

[KarpsnKatz]

2 hours ago, dwyak said:

How about if you're going to condemn tyranny, maybe start with the most blatant, dangerous tyranny currently happening?   Then maybe work down the line.  

I already did. That’s why I brought up China a few posts ago. The only reason Russia is being held responsible for all the past and future ill’s of the world is that their operation in Ukraine has made them an easy mark for virtue signaling. No one dares to put their insatiable lust for cheap toasters and TV’s in jeopardy by casting blame on China.

[BrianBM]

2 hours ago, KarpsnKatz said:

Not at all. Some of these anti Russian narratives are beginning to sound unhinged. If we are to condemn tyranny wherever it rears its head, let’s be consistent.

We're not even going that far. Most of the world's evils are not within our reach. There's nothing we can do to help the Uighers (sp?) in China, or the Royhinga in Burma. There are racial, ethnic and religious minorities all over the world that are hated by the majority population, be it Yazidis in Iraq, Sunni Muslims in Afghanistan, Shia Muslims in Saudi Arabia, and so on. There are wars that flicker on and off in odd places, like the running conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia. There's little to nothing we can do about these things.

 

Russia's invasion of Ukraine is different. Russia matters a great deal, Russian imperialism matters a great deal, and in this case Russian expansionism brings an immediate risk of a far bigger war that would consume Europe and the United States and very possibly lead to a nuclear exchange. It is far, far better that the Russian Army be tied in knots by Ukrainians fighting with American and European weapons than to have risk exchanges of fire between Russian and American forces in Europe. Putin can survive, politically speaking, a stalemate with Ukraine. He could probably survive defeat by the Ukrainian Army, if it come to that. Being beaten by the US in a war, even a limited one, would not be survivable and he might very well feel obliged to use a nuclear weapon. And where does that stop? 

 

Long term, I don't see a way for Ukraine to "win," in any meaningful sense. NATO and Europe are already winning. Military budgets are up, and rising. NATO was a hollow shell, and for the most part it still is, but it's on an upward curve of preparedness even as Putin himself, at the age of 70, is running out of time. Even if Putin's successor proves as hellbent on expansion as he is, Russia's Army will need years after the conclusion of the current war to repair the multitude of deficiencies from which it suffers. If Putin and the senior command (Nessmuk, Eryv, is the term "Stavka" still appropriate?) weren't aware of those deficiencies before, they are now. So Russian expansion by overt invasion will be crippled for the indefinite future.  We need that to happen for everyone's good.

[BrianBM]

4 mins ago, KarpsnKatz said:

I already did. That’s why I brought up China a few posts ago. The only reason Russia is being held responsible for all the past and future ill’s of the world is that their operation in Ukraine has made them an easy mark for virtue signaling. No one dares to put their insatiable lust for cheap toasters and TV’s in jeopardy by casting blame on China.

1. What a grotesque caricature of reality.

2. "Virtue signaling." This much blood (Ukrainian and Russian) and this much money (us and others) and you think this is "virtue signaling?" 

[dwyak]

21 mins ago, KarpsnKatz said:

I already did. That’s why I brought up China a few posts ago. The only reason Russia is being held responsible for all the past and future ill’s of the world is that their operation in Ukraine has made them an easy mark for virtue signaling. No one dares to put their insatiable lust for cheap toasters and TV’s in jeopardy by casting blame on China.

Ludicrous 

[eryv]

1 hour ago, BrianBM said:

NATO and Europe are already winning.

" as usually happens when negotiating with the Russians, their initial offer is usually the best. For all we know, based on how things are going in the Ukraine, Russia’s best and final offer may require NATO to disband altogether. After all, the Warsaw Pact disbanded 31 years ago but NATO is still around and bigger than ever; what for? To fight Russia? Well, then, what are they waiting for? Come and get it! This may not even take the form of a negotiation. For example, Russia could say, take a quick whack at Latvia (it richly deserves a whack or two for abusing its large native Russian population Nazi-style) and then stand back and say, “Come on, NATO, come and die heroically on our doorstep for poor little Latvia!” At this, NATO officials will stand united but very quiet, thoughtfully examining their own and each others’ shoes. Once it becomes clear that there will be no offers to launch World War III to avenge Latvia, NATO will quietly dry up and blow away. "

[BrianBM]

2 hours ago, eryv said:

" as usually happens when negotiating with the Russians, their initial offer is usually the best. For all we know, based on how things are going in the Ukraine, Russia’s best and final offer may require NATO to disband altogether. After all, the Warsaw Pact disbanded 31 years ago but NATO is still around and bigger than ever; what for? To fight Russia? Well, then, what are they waiting for? Come and get it! This may not even take the form of a negotiation. For example, Russia could say, take a quick whack at Latvia (it richly deserves a whack or two for abusing its large native Russian population Nazi-style) and then stand back and say, “Come on, NATO, come and die heroically on our doorstep for poor little Latvia!” At this, NATO officials will stand united but very quiet, thoughtfully examining their own and each others’ shoes. Once it becomes clear that there will be no offers to launch World War III to avenge Latvia, NATO will quietly dry up and blow away. "

I don't think Eryv meant to make an admission here, but he just did. Putin would like to take the Baltics back to Mother Russia. He will always be ready to discover Nazis as a justification for doing so. I've made this point repeatedly, and this is as close to an official confirmation as we can get.

 

If "Eryv" was a single person, I don't think he'd've written this. A single person, a regular reader of this thread, would remember that I've talked about Putin's discovering Nazis wherever Putin wants to go. A single person would have refrained from an oblique confirmation of an interest in further expansion, such as this post. It's the sort of thing that leads me to wonder how many different people are using the "Eryv" identity.

 

As far as taking a "quick whack" at Latvia, Russia's Army is in no shape to take on anything new, beyond what's currently on its' plate. It is fortifying what it has, as best it can, relying on General Winter for time to prepare for renewed fighting. Which Army is gaining more from a winter semi-recess is open to question.

 

Whether it be Latvia or anywhere else, any further invasions will only stimulate more vigorous preparations in Europe. I don't think that's in Russia's best interest, or in Putin's interests, and I doubt the Russian political elite will indulge Putin in any new wars while the old one is still such a problem.

[Octopotamus]

3 hours ago, eryv said:

the Warsaw Pact disbanded 31 years ago but NATO is still around and bigger than ever; what for? To fight Russia? Well, then, what are they waiting for? Come and get it!

This guy trying to pull a suicide by cop. Nice.

[eryv]

4 mins ago, BrianBM said:

If "Eryv" was a single person, I don't think he'd've written this. A single person, a regular reader of this thread, would remember that I've talked about Putin's discovering Nazis wherever Putin wants to go. A single person would have refrained from an oblique confirmation of an interest in further expansion, such as this post. It's the sort of thing that leads me to wonder how many different people are using the "Eryv" identity.

Brian, sometimes you looks not very smart. Of course I remember your deep analysis, that is why I place the citation from Ukrainian author here.

[BrianBM]

Whether original or a quotation, Eryv, you've made an admission of sorts.

 

So is it still good correct to refer to the Russian military high command as "Stavka?" Or is that usage now obsolete?

[eryv]

10 mins ago, BrianBM said:

Russia's Army is in no shape to take on anything new, beyond what's currently on its' plate. It is fortifying what it has, as best it can, relying on General Winter for time to prepare for renewed fighting. Which Army is gaining more from a winter semi-recess is open to question.

At the beginning of COVID the industrial power of the West was not able to generate enough PPE for 1 year!

 

" At present, there is still no shortage of idiots on the Ukrainian side—yet—and neither is there a shortage of donated Western weaponry. First came used Soviet-era tanks and other weapons systems donated from all over Eastern Europe; then came actual Western weapons systems. And now throughout NATO one hears plaintive cries that they have nothing left that they can give to the Ukrainians: the cupboard is empty. Nor can they manufacture more weapons in a hurry. To start churning out weapons at the same rate as Russia is doing, these NATO members would first need to reindustrialize, and there are neither the human resources, nor the money to do so. And so the Russian army grinds away, demilitarizing the Ukraine, and the rest of NATO with it. In the process, it is perfecting the art of fighting a land war against NATO—not that a single NATO country would even entertain such an idea. "

[eryv]

6 mins ago, BrianBM said:

Whether original or a quotation, Eryv, you've made an admission of sorts.

 

So is it still good correct to refer to the Russian military high command as "Stavka?" Or is that usage now obsolete?

"Stavka" term disappeared in soviet union somewhere in 196-. Ukrainians started to use it somewhere in 200-. Russians are using term "Shtab".

[BrianBM]

1 min ago, eryv said:

At the beginning of COVID the industrial power of the West was not able to generate enough PPE for 1 year!

 

" At present, there is still no shortage of idiots on the Ukrainian side—yet—and neither is there a shortage of donated Western weaponry. First came used Soviet-era tanks and other weapons systems donated from all over Eastern Europe; then came actual Western weapons systems. And now throughout NATO one hears plaintive cries that they have nothing left that they can give to the Ukrainians: the cupboard is empty. Nor can they manufacture more weapons in a hurry. To start churning out weapons at the same rate as Russia is doing, these NATO members would first need to reindustrialize, and there are neither the human resources, nor the money to do so. And so the Russian army grinds away, demilitarizing the Ukraine, and the rest of NATO with it. In the process, it is perfecting the art of fighting a land war against NATO—not that a single NATO country would even entertain such an idea. "

1. " donated from all over Eastern Europe ..." Quite true. The more recent the memory of Russian occupation, the more desperate Eastern Europe has been to make sure it doesn't happen again.

2. "Nor can they manufacture more weapons ...."  Quite true. That's why Ukraine is fighting for Europe as a whole by fighting for itself. To defend Europe, support Ukraine.

3. "... churning out weapons at the same rate as Russia is doing ..." Really? Barely a handful of T-80 tanks have made it to battlefield. Even a few T-34 museum pieces have been pried out of museums from the Great Patriotic War, and put into service. The nation that first put a satellite in orbit, and a man in space, has had to turn Iran - Iran! - for loitering munitions. If Iranian ballistic missiles appear in service, if Iraqi "volunteers" turn up, it will be a further comment on the degraded state to which Putin has brought Russian science

 4. "perfecting the art of fighting a land war against NATO," ludicrous. Russia is trying to break civilian morale in Ukraine by infrastucture bombardment precisely because battlefield success continues to elude it.

[BrianBM]

All right, then, "Shtab" it is. Thank you.