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BrianZ

housing market, bubble?

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So what's the thinking here? On a bubble because low rates and low inventory but rate increases will cool things off  OR  low inventory will keep demand very high until more single family homes are built and the bubble won't burst but slowly deflate back to "normal"  

OR  a recession slumping into depression will cause foreclosures and short sales flooding the market with cheap inventory and will cool things off very quickly.

 

We just listed our house and within 48 hours of being on the market got a cash offer $71k over asking. Our plan is to rent for 12-18 months in the town that we want to move to and see what happens.

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Oh yeah there’s a bubble and it’s going to pop…why wouldn’t there be, “they” can’t let us hold any equity in anything anymore, doesn’t fit into the plan.

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Lots of new construction contract cancellations all over the country as a direct result of the 5.5 and up rates. It’s an indicator. 
 

there are 15 million properties available.

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10 mins ago, BrianZ said:

So what's the thinking here? On a bubble because low rates and low inventory but rate increases will cool things off  OR  low inventory will keep demand very high until more single family homes are built and the bubble won't burst but slowly deflate back to "normal"  

OR  a recession slumping into depression will cause foreclosures and short sales flooding the market with cheap inventory and will cool things off very quickly.

 

We just listed our house and within 48 hours of being on the market got a cash offer $71k over asking. Our plan is to rent for 12-18 months in the town that we want to move to and see what happens.

Your second scenario is the most likely.  The lack of inventory coupled with high demand will keep prices high for the foreseeable future. The climbing interest rates (first option to fight inflation) knock about 10% out of the market, unfortunately mostly first time home buyers.  These are still low rates, just not historically low as we've seen in the past few years.  There is no "bubble" that will burst, but rates of appreciation will slow down from the frenzy of the past few years, possibly starting as soon as this fall.

 

 

 

 

 

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Posted (edited) · Report post

6 mins ago, mybeach said:

The big losers are home inspectors lol. Deals going all cash with no contingencies at all. 

Yeah, very true.  I insist my buyer clients pay for a inspection anyway, so they know what they're getting into.  Sellers are smart IMO to have a pre-inspection done and use it to drum up the price even higher.  This all works in the St. Louis market and could be totally different in your local market.  Inspections run around $600 out here.

Edited by MikeM58

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Jersey will stay high for at least 3-5 years due to all the bennies and Jews flooding out of New York. They got scared by covid and don’t want to live on top of each other anymore. I’m considering selling too, It’s full on ridiculous down here 

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There is an overinflation that has to normalize. The ability of buyers to buy homes is always a normalizing factor, but it takes time to occur. As noted, new construction contracts signed a year ago with assumptions about <3% rates are not in sticker shock with rates north of 5%. That said, you could see some buyers who were looking at 30Y fixed moving to IOs to keep the monthly cashflows lower, hoping to refi at lower rates in a couple of years (a bet I would not make). 

 

The difference between this and 2006-2008 is that the mortgage security market is not the same today as it was back then. Sure, there are no proof mortgages and 100% funding today, but not like subprime back then, and not threaded throughout the money markets. That alone could be enough to avoid the negative feedback loop that occurred during the global credit crisis. 

 

5 mins ago, MikeM58 said:

Yeah, very true.  I insist my buyer clients pay for a inspection anyway, so they know what they're getting into.  Sellers are smart IMO to have a pre-inspection done and use it to drum up the price even higher.  This all works in the St. Louis market and could be totally different in your local market.

Smart, pre-inspections. Especially if the town/city has one or two "main" inspectors. Get them to do the inspection and then the buyer can rely on that or pay for their own. When we sold our last house, we did that with the #1 guy and then fixed the few issues he found. Only thing we did not do was replace driveway, told the buyer that was on them. 

 

Yes, could also trigger a bidding war knowing that that uncertainty is out of the picture. We did not have a war, but it was easier for our buyer to put in a cash bid. 

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Posted (edited) · Report post

37 mins ago, mybeach said:

Lots of new construction contract cancellations all over the country as a direct result of the 5.5 and up rates. It’s an indicator. 
 

there are 15 million properties available.

where is the15 mil info from?

that would be 300,000 per state

Edited by capequahog

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20 mins ago, mybeach said:

The big losers are home inspectors lol. Deals going all cash with no contingencies at all. 

My daughter looked at a house for $450k. Sold for over $500k, cash, no inspection. Nuts

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