flyangler

How big is the Margin of Fraud in the 2022 election?

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8 hours ago, jimmy z said:

What margin of fraud?

There is a certain amount of chicanery that can take place, whether false media coverage, false charges against candidates, selective social media outrage, or games with balloting and how ballots are handled. Any of these just might be enough to tip a close election, so the GOP edge has to be greater than these influences. 

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1 hour ago, Dave588 said:

Watch 2000 mules and think about it

the "movie" is a fraud.  Dinesh is a criminal fraud.   Ain't watching that garbage.  

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16 hours ago, flyangler said:

I have said before that it is much harder to pull of broad scale electoral fraud in mid-term elections, especially at the House level. The number of districts involved would require a fraud level of hundreds of individuals to be effective. The Senate is another story as those are state-wide races and can close races be subject to chicanery in big metro areas. 
 

Bit if we look at this as being about control of the House and the Senate, what is the MoF in terms of seats in the House and Senate elections. 
 

I think the GOP stands to reap a bumper crop of flipped House seats but I do not think they can get to the 60+ level to make this historic. Not that the mood isn’t there against Dems, just that polarized voters and gerrymandering make flipping seats more difficult than in 2010 or before. 
 

That said, 30-40 seats seems reasonable and even if the MoF is 50% of those, the House flips. 
 

The Sentence, where I think the GOP could pick up 2-3 seats, is more problematic given they are state-wide races. I think both Georgia seats are flippable but I don’t trust the Georgia Dems and Abrams to not screw with this. Same but less critical in Arizona. 
 

So, what is the Margin of Fraud? 

Easier to pull off fraud in statewide elections.

Especially national ones.

 

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8 mins ago, Steve_in_PA said:

Easier to pull off fraud in statewide elections.

That is why the House is safe in the "flip" category. 

8 mins ago, Steve_in_PA said:

Especially national ones.

And why the senate elections in GA, AZ, NV, PA and NC are so critical, ostensibly purple states right now that could be tipped by a few thousand votes difference one way or another. Especially so GA and AZ, where chicanery has a history of sorts. 

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13 hours ago, KnewBee said:

 

 

Not enough to impact an election.  Wasn't in 2020, won't be in 2022 or 2024.  

 

Trump lied about "massive and determinative" election fraud.   Some idiots believed his lies.   Don't be an idiot  

I would just like to know how we came to the "not enough to impact" mantra. That conclusion came about in pretty short order did it not..? In this age of years long "investigations" you would think a bit more effort could have been exercised .....you know to actually make the claim seem legit.

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3 mins ago, BW said:

I would just like to know how we came to the "not enough to impact" mantra. That conclusion came about in pretty short order did it not..? In this age of years long "investigations" you would think a bit more effort could have been exercised .....you know to actually make the claim seem legit.

Our election systems are not instantaneously auditable, so any postmortem can be suspect, particularly if conducted by members of one party or another. 

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Just now, flyangler said:

Our election systems are not instantaneously auditable, so any postmortem can be suspect, particularly if conducted by members of one party or another. 

no chit.....exactly my point. Claims of the 2020 election being the most secure in history could only be believed by a fool. Voteing by mail and drop boxes is insanity. The ability to have people collect strangers ballots is insanity. Asking a voter to show proof of identity and calling that racist is insanity. 

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1 hour ago, BW said:

I would just like to know how we came to the "not enough to impact" mantra. That conclusion came about in pretty short order did it not..? In this age of years long "investigations" you would think a bit more effort could have been exercised .....you know to actually make the claim seem legit.

The entire " most secure election ever" with no audit.

Which begets the question; were ballots only marked biden for speed of processing ballots? Or because theres really only one party that identifies as two?

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3 hours ago, Bass2Snook said:

Yeah, PaddyCrabby does that a lot.

I blame it on the last little piggy.  Thanks Mom. :D

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20 hours ago, flyangler said:

I have said before that it is much harder to pull of broad scale electoral fraud in mid-term elections, especially at the House level.

 

Agree 100%  They could try, but it would likely be quite obvious.

 

The problem though, is that by the time you "prove" any fraud, or even show that it's likely to have occurred, it's too late.  No, I mean WAY TOO LATE.

 

:( 

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