rst3

Henri

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Posted (edited)

lol

11pm NHC

NY State of Mind

212446_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png.2c8cf624cc47ef8731e317eeef0e2e8b.png

 

Gotta mention @albacized question from this morning.

PicsArt_08-20-11_10_11.jpg.4b32cd897172e77d9c55a5a662f4289d.jpg

 

Classic rst3 "Nahh! No friggin way this thing ends up south of -"

> oh. whups.

 

pfft. Could easily end up in Northern NJ.

Screenshot_20210820-232107_Gallery.jpg.ad331f0061722f4de0c3d9bad8fd086f.jpg

 

612070d200b61_ec5(1).jpg.ba90a13443a79d4e5a34971a7816c49e.jpg

 

So put the lawn chairs back out on the Cape. No storm for you. And for all intents, no significant storm conditions for most of Eastern Mass. 

Edited by rst3

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Posted (edited)

2 hours ago, nightfighter said:

Here on the North Shore of Boston, there has been a marked drop in the numbers of boat owners who will be planning to haul out, including me. My decision is based more on the cheap Chinee steel that was my trailer's leaf springs. (replaced about six years ago..) The talking wx heads just don't seem to have anything to say about what we should expect with the track moving west almost hourly....

IMG_5452 (1).jpg

Did you check the load rating on those springs before you climbed in the boat to secure straps?. Always get weighed at a truckstop before your boat. May I suggest Keto?

 

( honestly, that looks onload and still over capacity ) 

Edited by FEW3

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Here's the ridiculous westward shift in track over the past several days. And this gif doesn't even include the latest jog into Manhattan 

ezgif-7-0c74432e87a9.gif.966350b40689214956897a5b3fcf418d.gif

 

Have fun with your tropical storm NYC.

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Posted (edited)

4 mins ago, rst3 said:

Here's the ridiculous westward shift in track over the past several days. And this gif doesn't even include the latest jog into Manhattan 

ezgif-7-0c74432e87a9.gif.966350b40689214956897a5b3fcf418d.gif

 

Have fun with your tropical storm NYC.

Clouds are looking odd right now. 16295166820205294680163223314211.jpg.e3602b763ef015a204c7fb435d6deea4.jpg

16295165567391145169940743544959.jpg

Edited by FEW3

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3 hours ago, nightfighter said:

Here on the North Shore of Boston, there has been a marked drop in the numbers of boat owners who will be planning to haul out, including me. My decision is based more on the cheap Chinee steel that was my trailer's leaf springs. (replaced about six years ago..) The talking wx heads just don't seem to have anything to say about what we should expect with the track moving west almost hourly....

IMG_5452 (1).jpg

That sucks. I had the same thing happen to my trailer this spring and I still haven’t fixed it yet. It took months to get parts and then it seems to rain every time I have free time to work on it. 

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Henri remains unimpressive, and is still misaligned vertically from previous battle with wind shear.

20210821_000257.jpg.3666f30b735a92e8646a637744792fa1.jpg

 

It only has roughly 24 more hours to strengthen before it heads north of the Gulf Stream, so the longer it takes to get its act together, the weaker at landfall it will be.

 

Not going to be Sandy.

Or Bob.

Those were real deal storms.

 

Compare the crappy presentation of Henri tonight to Bob back in 91. Not even in the same solar system.

Bob_1991-08-19_1115Z.png.544fa52bf088a89de8179c05cd56875d.png

 

9 foot surge in Buzzards Bay

Screenshot_20210820-223820_Chrome.jpg.d9fa0c515b4906cebd20f790b553cb95.jpg

 

Bob storm surge

Screenshot_20210820-225032_Chrome.jpg.e8394c5a6672f68558725769aa31109c.jpg

Screenshot_20210820-225050_Chrome.jpg.399273c00952e92ebb1bebfe11e5e57d.jpg

 

Bob *snapped* -- not uprooted-- trees in Falmouth. That takes serious wind. 

Screenshot_20210820-224838_Chrome.jpg.405f847bc40abe6d359eba467bee4d0d.jpg

 

At this point, the biggest threat from Henri is potential rain/flooding. But even there, I'm not sold. the rainfall estimates haven't exactly looked catastrophic. Couple, maybe 4/5/6 inches.

Moist, tbs. But damaging floods? Ehhhh. I dunno about that.

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Posted (edited)

Biggest risk with Henri is inland flooding. Here's one rough idea as of 8pm Fri. 

 

Flash Flooding risk zones

033336WPCERO_sm.gif.89558076f02071ff610c4819a52def24.gif

 

Precipitation Outlook

033336WPCQPF_sm.gif.5b55ee537d1385704235be376d78a074.gif

I'm not really a huge fan of the precipiation scale used in this product.

Orange = 6-10"?? Well, gee... there's a pretty damn big difference between 6 and 10"..

Given that orange is over mountainous/hilly terrain: 

1) Six inches on the Berkshires and CT hills is a recipe for 'damaging' floods. No good.

2) But dumping 10? Yikes. Now that's 'severe' flooding in hilly areas.

 

 Seeing that the storm track has shifted everywhere except perhaps Dodge City, Kansas..it's still unclear what towns/area are under the greatest risk. I'd definitely be super vigilant if I were in the Berkshires and CT hills though. Flash Flooding and washed out roads a realistic possibility.

***

Given the absurd changes in track, the coastal surge forecast is literally all over the map. But if you figure on a central/W LI strike, most areas in that vicinity are forecast to rise 1-3ft based on this experimemtal surge product (below)

 

One area that looks a little more inundated/at risk for deeper waters is New Haven. Again, highly track dependent.

Screenshot_20210821-022122_Chrome.jpg.f4b420ce1078c36e8c500534de8b7e79.jpg

 

Assuming a western NE landfall, storm surge values for the Cape would be minimal. 

Screenshot_20210821-024350_Chrome.jpg.3d32c261d015f50bdcebcdbefd9a8719.jpgScreenshot_20210821-024436_Chrome.jpg.8e6d7d89356428cc43324c90e24d963a.jpg

 

Edited by rst3

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6 hours ago, rst3 said:

Henri remains unimpressive, and is still misaligned vertically from previous battle with wind shear.

20210821_000257.jpg.3666f30b735a92e8646a637744792fa1.jpg

 

It only has roughly 24 more hours to strengthen before it heads north of the Gulf Stream, so the longer it takes to get its act together, the weaker at landfall it will be.

 

Not going to be Sandy.

Or Bob.

Those were real deal storms.

 

Compare the crappy presentation of Henri tonight to Bob back in 91. Not even in the same solar system.

Bob_1991-08-19_1115Z.png.544fa52bf088a89de8179c05cd56875d.png

 

9 foot surge in Buzzards Bay

Screenshot_20210820-223820_Chrome.jpg.d9fa0c515b4906cebd20f790b553cb95.jpg

 

Bob storm surge

Screenshot_20210820-225032_Chrome.jpg.e8394c5a6672f68558725769aa31109c.jpg

Screenshot_20210820-225050_Chrome.jpg.399273c00952e92ebb1bebfe11e5e57d.jpg

 

Bob *snapped* -- not uprooted-- trees in Falmouth. That takes serious wind. 

Screenshot_20210820-224838_Chrome.jpg.405f847bc40abe6d359eba467bee4d0d.jpg

 

At this point, the biggest threat from Henri is potential rain/flooding. But even there, I'm not sold. the rainfall estimates haven't exactly looked catastrophic. Couple, maybe 4/5/6 inches.

Moist, tbs. But damaging floods? Ehhhh. I dunno about that.

I recall seeing pics of Maco's tackle shop (at it's old location down at the entrance of buttermilk bay partially under water as a result of Bob

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1 hour ago, numbskull said:

Rst3, your input on all this has been amazingly informative and hugely helpful.  Thanks.

+1. I’ve been refreshing this thread every few hours, such great stuff! Thank you @rst3!!!

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7 hours ago, z-man said:

That sucks. I had the same thing happen to my trailer this spring and I still haven’t fixed it yet. It took months to get parts and then it seems to rain every time I have free time to work on it. 

Torsion axles.You want torsion axles. And SS discs if you need brakes.

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On 8/20/2021 at 7:26 AM, PatchyFog said:

Outta beach gonna get hammered. It'll be very interesting to see what the Chatham barrier beaches look like on Monday.

For safe keeping Nauset beach will be going to East Harwich during the storm.

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@rst3 - the flood doesn't come from the rain. Comes from the saturated ground that we already had with previous storms and won't hold any water at all when it comes. Will have to see what 4" of rain will do to the already high water level of the rivers. 

 

Thanks again for all the insight. :theman:

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