flyangler

April's CPI Inflation Highest Since 2008; Doesn't Include Last 2wks

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So, is this "transitory" or is this here for at least the intermediate term?

How can we tell the difference?

Can the Fed separate the cyclical from the secular influences in their analysis?

Will markets, businesses or consumers care? 

 

After the disappoint April Labor Report, this is the second big miss relative to expectations, and neither missed in a "good" way. 

 

April 2021 vs March 2021

+0.8% Total vs expectation of +0.2%

+0.9% Ex food & energy vs expectation of +0.3% (Street high was +0.4%)

 

April 2021 vs April 2020

+4.2% Total vs expectation of +3.6%

+3.0% Ex food & energy vs expectation of +2.3%

 

Anyone want to multiple +0.8% by 12 and annualize the current pace? 

 

Bank of America, in a research report last week, said "transitory" is applicable to inflation, not as the Fed means, but in the context that the USA may experience a "transitory period of hyper-inflation". 

 

The April CPI report does not include the first 12 days of May, so the run rate might even be higher at this point. 

 

I agree that we will see SOME transitory price spikes, but that is not the only thing we are looking at. The Fed seems to think it can divine what part of the CPI/PPI/PCE is temporary and what is a result of this being late in an economic recovery. I am not convinced anyone can divine that. 

 

As I noted elsewhere, a rerun of the Carter years is now a best-case scenario....

 

PPI is due to be reported tomorrow and should shed more light on whether this is isolated to downstream pricing or whether it exists upstream as well, I am betting on the latter. 

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Brilliant league is playing word games elsewhere right now.

 

They will be along shortly to remind us how Trump set Biden up for failure.

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32 mins ago, flyangler said:

 

 

As I noted elsewhere, a rerun of the Carter years is now a best-case scenario....

 

 

 

Giving us the warm and fuzzies today

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Posted (edited) · Report post

37 mins ago, makorider said:

 

Giving us the warm and fuzzies today

new series for 2021, "Welcome Back Carter"

 

 

bfc1809d-119b-4e06-8015-609e63865332-AP080826032783.jpg

Edited by flyangler

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10 mins ago, flyangler said:

Screen Shot 2021-05-12 at 3.37.01 PM.png

Gas at my local station went up 3 cents over night, and another 6 cents today.

At least they still have some.

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22 mins ago, flyangler said:

new series for 2021, "Welcome Back Carter"

 

 

bfc1809d-119b-4e06-8015-609e63865332-AP080826032783.jpg

Looks like it.

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21 mins ago, dena said:

Gas at my local station went up 3 cents over night, and another 6 cents today.

At least they still have some.

Hunter will fix this, he is an energy expert.

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Inflation over last 12 months: 4.2%, highest year over year rate since September 2008.
 

Inflation in March: 0.9%, highest since April 1982 (note a monthly rate of 0.9% is 10.8% annualized).

 

Avg. price gallon of regular gas: $2.99, highest since November 2014.

 

Used Car prices: up 12.4% in last year. New car prices up 7.0%.

 

Median home price: up 18.4% over year. 

 

April jobs report: 266,000 new jobs, vs. predicted 1 million.

 

Stagflation, anyone?

 

 

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