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Silicon chips = are we being held hostage ?

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3 hours ago, Shipwreck said:

Yep.

I made a thread about this a few weeks ago.  If you want something you better buy it right now.  I really wish I could say more.  Maybe soon.

What's the big secret?

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15 hours ago, Gotcow? said:

I they weren't running out of chips the would be running out of other parts made in China.

it's not a shortage in that they stopped making them

 

it's a shortage because the demand is higher than it has been and they can't make enough

 

people working from home means more people needed new computers.

 

chipmakers can't make the chips fast enough.

but they are trying.

2023 they'll be opening new factories here.

 

 

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3 mins ago, eddy said:

it's not a shortage in that they stopped making them

 

it's a shortage because the demand is higher than it has been and they can't make enough

 

people working from home means more people needed new computers.

 

chipmakers can't make the chips fast enough.

but they are trying.

2023 they'll be opening new factories here.

 

 

 

 

As you said the auto makers effed themselves via poor demand forecasting.

 

The chips they were going to get but backed out of were happily taken by other manufactures.

 

New factories here?

I'll believe it when I see it.

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1 hour ago, Sailah said:

I manufacture printed circuit boards for an industrial sensor that I designed.  I used to be able to buy 1,000 qty of all the parts I needed to do a run from any of the big distributors.  Now it's complete mayhem.  I routinely see lead times of 50+ weeks.  In the case of one of my components, a 3 axis accelerometer that costs $1.50, the distributor says "good luck" we have no idea when it will be in stock and it's been back ordered for 6 months.

 

I saw the writing on the wall last summer and bought as much inventory as I could and just sit on it.  I literally drive to my contract manufacturer in NH and hand him all the parts to place on the boards in my truck.

 

One of my competitors did not do this and they are screwed.

 

The manufacturer that makes the radio module I use said it all stems back to a fire in Japan.  These radios require a TCXO (temperature compensated crystal oscillator) and a huge portion of the worlds supply comes from AKM in Japan.  They had a 3 day fire back in the fall and the ripples in the supply chain are vast.

 

Probably more than you ever wanted to know about circuit shortages but that's likely why car manufacturers are idle.  And being a tiny fish against Ford, you can guess where the priorities are when parts are available.  AKA not me.

 

 

I remember hearing about that.

they made chips for DACs and ADCs

 

 

but that's a shortage because the place can't make chips.

 

a little different than running at full capacity

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6 mins ago, Gotcow? said:

 

 

As you said the auto makers effed themselves via poor demand forecasting.

 

The chips they were going to get but backed out of were happily taken by other manufactures.

 

New factories here?

I'll believe it when I see it.

well maybe lack of common sense

but definitely poor forecasting

 

 

TSMC and Intel are going to be building factories in Arizona.

they said it back in May of last year.

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27 mins ago, eddy said:

it's not a shortage in that they stopped making them

 

it's a shortage because the demand is higher than it has been and they can't make enough

 

people working from home means more people needed new computers.

 

chipmakers can't make the chips fast enough.

but they are trying.

2023 they'll be opening new factories here.

 

 

I think it's more of all the above.  There are factories that aren't making ICs because they can't get subcomponents.  There are capacity problems in places.  There's clearly a large demand on the semiconductor industry as a whole from COVID related pressures like the data centers.  Crypto, mining.  Geopolitical tensions between china, Taiwan, US, S Korea.  Work from home PC buying.  And new digital coming on line everyday.  I'm in the IoT space, where factories are looking to monitor everything.  They just can't have subcontractors running around short staffed plants taking measurements.

 

And it's not just "chips" that are short.  When I look down my BOM, it's a huge swath.  Piezo benders, zero avail.  MLCC (capacitors) shortages across the board.  EEPROMs, gone.  Even things like battery holders, which I source from a factory in NY, low stock due to plastic resins.  Resistors, capacitors, inductors, diodes, all short.  And I'm only buying 1K at a time.  Even still I will buy half a reel from one supplier and the other half from another.  Crazy.   Can't imagine trying to buy 20K of some parts.

 

It doesn't look much better on the horizon either, lead times are 8 weeks to a year.  Not many manufacturers can plan that far in advance.

 

Here's my current lead times and I know 30% of these are BS, they just keep extending it.  Now when I see parts I use I just buy them.  Sorta like the toilet paper shortage that is self fulfilling.  In my case, if I don't have parts I'm out of business and years of bootstrapping and patents down the drain.  I think Intel bringing Foundry work to US will be great, probably not going to help me at all but perhaps relieve some of the pressure on the other manufacturers.

 

One thing I did do in the last 2 years is shift all my production to the US.  Even my circuit boards I have printed in the US and assembled in New England.  It's more expensive but it's far more enjoyable working with people I can drive to see vs "Lucy".

 

Capture.PNG.4b765d60c1f1d1c548564ffea24ea35e.PNG

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Posted (edited) · Report post

With the products I sell if I take the back off and look closely at the circuit boards you will see names of companies on individual components from all over the world.  While the image below doesn't list the makers of the individual components it does give you an idea of how many items go into a typical circuit board.  This diagram doesn't even begin to get into the minutia of the individual tiny bits mounted on that board which make it function.  Take away any one of those items and you no longer have a functioning board.

 

motherboard.jpg

 

depositphotos_135344454-stock-photo-comp

 

 

Edited by mako capt

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On 5/4/2021 at 7:18 PM, BrianBM said:

Chip[ production went overseas because overseas is cheaper, like everything else that's manufactured. It's all a matter of return on investment. The Chinese didn't and don't need to steal these jobs, American executives are anxious to export them.

these are the same Executives who Proudly align with the Left 

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On 5/5/2021 at 9:40 AM, Gotcow? said:

What's the big secret?

 

On 5/5/2021 at 11:58 AM, Sailah said:

I think it's more of all the above.  There are factories that aren't making ICs because they can't get subcomponents.  There are capacity problems in places.  There's clearly a large demand on the semiconductor industry as a whole from COVID related pressures like the data centers.  Crypto, mining.  Geopolitical tensions between china, Taiwan, US, S Korea.  Work from home PC buying.  And new digital coming on line everyday.  I'm in the IoT space, where factories are looking to monitor everything.  They just can't have subcontractors running around short staffed plants taking measurements.

 

And it's not just "chips" that are short.  When I look down my BOM, it's a huge swath.  Piezo benders, zero avail.  MLCC (capacitors) shortages across the board.  EEPROMs, gone.  Even things like battery holders, which I source from a factory in NY, low stock due to plastic resins.  Resistors, capacitors, inductors, diodes, all short.  And I'm only buying 1K at a time.  Even still I will buy half a reel from one supplier and the other half from another.  Crazy.   Can't imagine trying to buy 20K of some parts.

 

It doesn't look much better on the horizon either, lead times are 8 weeks to a year.  Not many manufacturers can plan that far in advance.

 

Here's my current lead times and I know 30% of these are BS, they just keep extending it.  Now when I see parts I use I just buy them.  Sorta like the toilet paper shortage that is self fulfilling.  In my case, if I don't have parts I'm out of business and years of bootstrapping and patents down the drain.  I think Intel bringing Foundry work to US will be great, probably not going to help me at all but perhaps relieve some of the pressure on the other manufacturers.

 

One thing I did do in the last 2 years is shift all my production to the US.  Even my circuit boards I have printed in the US and assembled in New England.  It's more expensive but it's far more enjoyable working with people I can drive to see vs "Lucy".

 

Capture.PNG.4b765d60c1f1d1c548564ffea24ea35e.PNG

^ this

 

I am just not allowed to say it

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On 5/4/2021 at 7:32 PM, Gotcow? said:

What would you have them do in regards to rare earth elements?

Relax regulations here in the states so we can mine our own. Trump signed EO's to allow for military allowances but I've not heard many of our old mines being un-mothballed. 

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1 hour ago, Harf said:

these are the same Executives who Proudly align with the Left 

What they align with is share price and return on investment.

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27 mins ago, J said:

Relax regulations here in the states so we can mine our own. Trump signed EO's to allow for military allowances but I've not heard many of our old mines being un-mothballed. 

It's not just mining our own.

It processing and manufacturing our own.

 

It's withstanding the Chinese FU when they eff with the global supply chain to the US.

 

All the modern gizmos and doodads that we use today come with an extremely high environmental cost that we were only too happy to unload on China where it was out of sight and out of mind.

 

Now China controls approx. 80% of the supply and industry and we are slaves to their demands..

 

We're effed six ways to Sunday.

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8 hours ago, Gotcow? said:

It's not just mining our own.

It processing and manufacturing our own.

 

It's withstanding the Chinese FU when they eff with the global supply chain to the US.

 

All the modern gizmos and doodads that we use today come with an extremely high environmental cost that we were only too happy to unload on China where it was out of sight and out of mind.

 

Now China controls approx. 80% of the supply and industry and we are slaves to their demands..

 

We're effed six ways to Sunday.

Sounds like what they said in the 70's about oil. 

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