ScottO

Herd Immunity

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So as this drags on and drags out I am starting to look towards a more "normal" return to life.  IMHO that is going to occur when the infection rate is low enough that health care can operate without being inundated with covid cases.  I am sure there are other factors but from my perspective that is a big indicator.  So what are the current numbers.  Now before the crazies and the trolls jump in on this I do not have to the minute numbers.  I also do not know that there is a unicorn number that once we hit we are good to go.  So lets look at the "raw" info and see what gives.

  

96 million Americans have committed to a full vaccination schedule and are done (currently valid for 6m protection, waning efficacy against variants)

45 Million have committed to the first vaccine ( I believe yesterday I heard that up to 33% of people have opted out of receiving the second vaccine).  33% of 45 mil should mean an additional 30 million with vaccination completed

32 million Americans have been infected.  (duration of protection unclear, also at risk for variant re-infection)

 

96+32 ( the alleged best protected/infected group) is 128 million or about 38% of America (released yesterday as 331 million), add in another 30 million as above and we are at 158 million or 47% of the American population.  

 

so we are minimally a little short, if 50% is the unicorn number.  But, if we can count on Americans to get infected slowly we should cross that unicorn threshold of 50% sometime this fall.  At that point I could for see opening everything.  But there are some caveats.  AS the covid lingers, spreading in our country, the ability to mutate and become variant persists.  As we know the variants create problems for the vaccinated as well as the unvaccinated and the infected.  Just because you got British covid and survived doesn't mean you aren't susceptible to Brazilian covid.  Any of our epidemiology teams looking at this more closely now that states are turning down the vaccine and America seems to be reaching it's saturation with those willing to vaccinate?

 

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52 mins ago, ScottO said:

So as this drags on and drags out I am starting to look towards a more "normal" return to life.  IMHO that is going to occur when the infection rate is low enough that health care can operate without being inundated with covid cases.  I am sure there are other factors but from my perspective that is a big indicator.  So what are the current numbers.  Now before the crazies and the trolls jump in on this I do not have to the minute numbers.  I also do not know that there is a unicorn number that once we hit we are good to go.  So lets look at the "raw" info and see what gives.

  

96 million Americans have committed to a full vaccination schedule and are done (currently valid for 6m protection, waning efficacy against variants)

45 Million have committed to the first vaccine ( I believe yesterday I heard that up to 33% of people have opted out of receiving the second vaccine).  33% of 45 mil should mean an additional 30 million with vaccination completed

32 million Americans have been infected.  (duration of protection unclear, also at risk for variant re-infection)

 

96+32 ( the alleged best protected/infected group) is 128 million or about 38% of America (released yesterday as 331 million), add in another 30 million as above and we are at 158 million or 47% of the American population.  

 

so we are minimally a little short, if 50% is the unicorn number.  But, if we can count on Americans to get infected slowly we should cross that unicorn threshold of 50% sometime this fall.  At that point I could for see opening everything.  But there are some caveats.  AS the covid lingers, spreading in our country, the ability to mutate and become variant persists.  As we know the variants create problems for the vaccinated as well as the unvaccinated and the infected.  Just because you got British covid and survived doesn't mean you aren't susceptible to Brazilian covid.  Any of our epidemiology teams looking at this more closely now that states are turning down the vaccine and America seems to be reaching it's saturation with those willing to vaccinate?

 

 

New Studies Indicate Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna Vaccines Effective Against Variants

Two new studies point to the Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna vaccines as effective against variants of the SARS-CoV-2 virus that causes COVID-19. Both studies suggest the antibodies stimulated by the vaccines are only slightly less potent against the variants than against the Wuhan wildtype strain.

“We’re not seeing big differences,” said Michel Nussenzweig, an immunologist at Rockefeller University in New York and a member of the group that published one of the studies. “Get vaccinated,” he added.

The data came from lab tests with blood samples from small numbers of vaccinated individuals. They have yet to be peer-reviewed. However, they are consistent with what has been reported from other studies.

“The take-home message is that the vaccines are going to work against the New York variant and the South African variant and the U.K. variant,” said Nathan Landau, a virologist at NYU’s Grossman School of Medicine who led the study.

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1 hour ago, ScottO said:

  As we know the variants create problems for the vaccinated as well as the unvaccinated and the infected.  Just because you got British covid and survived doesn't mean you aren't susceptible to Brazilian covid.  

 

False premise. I'm out.

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1 min ago, Mike said:

False premise. I'm out.

Why false? Brazil is facing a 50% efficacy of the two leading Moderna and Pfizer vaccines.  Brazil has something special we don't?

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Will India produce a new Variant, it's running rampant

 

India, home to the world's worst ongoing coronavirus outbreak, has reported more than 17.6 million cases since the pandemic began last year.

But the real number, experts fear, could be up to 30 times higher -- meaning more than half a billion cases.

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Hey Cleat, Corona virus is the virus, covid-19 is the disease state.  Remember HIV and AIDS?

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4 mins ago, ScottO said:

Why false? Brazil is facing a 50% efficacy of the two leading Moderna and Pfizer vaccines.  Brazil has something special we don't?

False

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"Although the R.1 variant is not currently identified as a CDC variant of concern or interest,*** it does have several mutations of importance. The D614G mutation demonstrates evidence of increasing virus transmissibility (4). The E484K mutation, found within the receptor-binding domain of the spike protein, is also seen in the variants of concern B.1.351 and P.1, which show evidence of reduced neutralization by convalescent and postvaccination sera (5,6). Mutation W152L might reduce the effectiveness of neutralizing antibodies (7). Although vaccination was associated with decreased likelihood of infection and symptomatic illness, 25.4% of vaccinated residents and 7.1% of vaccinated HCP were infected, supporting concerns about potential reduced protective immunity to R.1. In addition, four possible reinfections were identified, providing some evidence of limited or waning natural immunity to this variant." 

COVID-19 Outbreak Associated with a SARS-CoV-2 R.1 Lineage Variant in a Skilled Nursing Facility After Vaccination Program — Kentucky, March 2021

Early Release / April 21, 2021 / 70

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Saw it the other day. That's a highly compromised population over 80 yrs old. Lower response rate to vaccination.  Infected does not mean symptomatic or severely symptomatic. One of 18 died. That's about the 95% protection level. 

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27 mins ago, Sandflee said:

Will India produce a new Variant, it's running rampant

 

India, home to the world's worst ongoing coronavirus outbreak, has reported more than 17.6 million cases since the pandemic began last year.

But the real number, experts fear, could be up to 30 times higher -- meaning more than half a billion cases.

Said this in the other thread...  Had a colleague of mine die the other day in India after he went to visit his mother. 35 years old.   Anyway, have we restricted travel from india? And if those numbers are accurate, they will end up with 0 cases real soon since the entire f'en country has had it and lived or died. Crazy

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41 mins ago, ErikT said:

I thought Pfizer said their Vax handled the variants? 

 

 

As does Moderna and J&J, just slightly less well as the original covid. And there’s also not much more than fear mongering that people who had original covid are getting sick with variants. My understanding is that it also incredibly rare.

 

Scott, the 32 million number is confirmed infractions - it’s very widely accepted, even by the CDC, that they number of actual infections if over 100 million. Put that number into your math and things look a lot more optimistic :beers: 

 

Look at the most recent cases/day charts....the vaccines and immunity just stomped out what would have been the fourth wave. It sputtered and spattered and tried to get going, but it just couldn’t find enough folks to spread through. Cases are dropping everywhere in the US now, even the places that were seeing massive spikes a few weeks back. If this isn’t some level of herd immunity this is what it will look like when it gets here :) 

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14 mins ago, ScottO said:

"Although the R.1 variant is not currently identified as a CDC variant of concern or interest,*** it does have several mutations of importance. The D614G mutation demonstrates evidence of increasing virus transmissibility (4). The E484K mutation, found within the receptor-binding domain of the spike protein, is also seen in the variants of concern B.1.351 and P.1, which show evidence of reduced neutralization by convalescent and postvaccination sera (5,6). Mutation W152L might reduce the effectiveness of neutralizing antibodies (7). Although vaccination was associated with decreased likelihood of infection and symptomatic illness, 25.4% of vaccinated residents and 7.1% of vaccinated HCP were infected, supporting concerns about potential reduced protective immunity to R.1. In addition, four possible reinfections were identified, providing some evidence of limited or waning natural immunity to this variant." 

COVID-19 Outbreak Associated with a SARS-CoV-2 R.1 Lineage Variant in a Skilled Nursing Facility After Vaccination Program — Kentucky, March 2021

Early Release / April 21, 2021 / 70

Which vaccine did they get? If it was J&J, 25% is better than expected even with a ‘variant’.

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Reduced neutralization refers to a lab test and not real world protection. It could easily be the case that a reduction of, say, 80% in a lab test could still give 100% protection in the real world. It depends on where you start from for a level of protection. In older vaccinated people that level is lower to start with because older people don't respond to vaccines a vigorously as young people 

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