capequahog

The Vaccine

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1 hour ago, ermghoti said:

331,000,000 is also a big number. That's the US population. As rst3 points out, 120M is about a third of the population. There would be over 100,000,000 million vaccinations required to get close to herd immunity, IF we knew who the asymptomatic survivors and naturally immune people were. We don't so they will get vaccinated at the same rate as the general public. We'll need about 150M vaccinations, give or take.

The WSJ said 40-60% of Americans already have 'some degree' of natural immunity to covid. Then we figure in that kids don't get it or transmit it very well and we can add kids under 10 to those totals. My gut says by end of April we are looking at so few cases it will be hard to ask people to keep wearing their masks. Then again, I've always been pretty optimistic :) 

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2 mins ago, TimS said:

The WSJ said 40-60% of Americans already have 'some degree' of natural immunity to covid. Then we figure in that kids don't get it or transmit it very well and we can add kids under 10 to those totals. My gut says by end of April we are looking at so few cases it will be hard to ask people to keep wearing their masks. Then again, I've always been pretty optimistic :) 

I hope you are right. 

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7 mins ago, TimS said:

The WSJ said 40-60% of Americans already have 'some degree' of natural immunity to covid. Then we figure in that kids don't get it or transmit it very well and we can add kids under 10 to those totals. My gut says by end of April we are looking at so few cases it will be hard to ask people to keep wearing their masks. Then again, I've always been pretty optimistic :) 

I think this line of thinking is rational (based on the numbers) and not overly optimistic at all.   I - for one - agree with Tim!  Glass is half full for me.  

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22 mins ago, TimS said:

As much as we all want to hate Florida for their fully open restaurants and no mask rules...they are kicking ass. NJ has 25% occupancy in restaurants and requirement to wear masks 100% of the time you are in a store, business, restaurant, gym, etc, etc...Florida is doing better than NJ...and statically the same as MA :read:  Florida is quickly becoming proof that we should open our businesses back up....

 

Screenshot (925).png

I can't speak for the others, but MA suffers from having a bad early start. It will always trend high, as it was "inoculated" more strongly. So, FL is doing poorly, considering COVID arrived in force there late by comparison.

 

https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#cases_casesper100klast7days

 

flcvfeb.png

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19 mins ago, TimS said:

The WSJ said 40-60% of Americans already have 'some degree' of natural immunity to covid. Then we figure in that kids don't get it or transmit it very well and we can add kids under 10 to those totals. My gut says by end of April we are looking at so few cases it will be hard to ask people to keep wearing their masks. Then again, I've always been pretty optimistic :) 

That was the same article discussed earlier, which was an op-ed? I'll go with the CDC over the opinion page of the WSJ on matters of public health statistics. 

 

Optimism has its place. Prudence has its place. We'll be in the same position by summer or early fall, plus or minus a small city worth of corpses. Let's try the version more likely to have fewer corpses.

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1 hour ago, TimS said:

Not true...the test positivity rate tells you whether the reduction in cases is due to less testing. If the percentage of tests that come back positive drops along with the number of new cases, it's not because of fewer tests :read: This chart shows test positivity (darker line) and new cases (lighter line):

 

Screenshot (926).png

I was talking about the numbers that are showing in the worldometer.. Those are total new cases and not percentage. 

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Heard that they're gonna make the mask rule stay put long into 2022.   

Info was from a TV news broadcast.   

Don't shoot the messenger.  :airquote:

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1 min ago, flylikabird said:

Heard that they're gonna make the mask rule stay put long into 2022.   

Info was from a TV news broadcast.   

Don't shoot the messenger.  :airquote:

Not in Florida :)

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3 hours ago, capesams said:

here's a  rant for you....a young gal[27] I know goes to naples florida for a few weeks to see some friends...she starts posting pic's on fb...no one has any masks on...everything is 100 % open crowding at it's best like nothing is wrong..bars and restaurants completely full...comes back for a few weeks and is headed back....these kids are mindless.

 

What does she do when she’s back in MA? Does she have a job? Is she quarantining or getting tested? Just going to Florida doesn’t make you a bad person. I went to Florida last summer and didn’t infect anyone or bring back Covid. 

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1 hour ago, ged said:

Not in Florida :)

It’s not just Florida. It seems like most of the middle of the country isn’t wearing masks much either. Places like Utah and their case numbers and deaths are low. It doesn’t make sense. The only thing I can think of is that it’s because there aren’t as many big cities as on the east and west coast. 

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2 hours ago, TimS said:

The WSJ said 40-60% of Americans already have 'some degree' of natural immunity to covid. Then we figure in that kids don't get it or transmit it very well and we can add kids under 10 to those totals. My gut says by end of April we are looking at so few cases it will be hard to ask people to keep wearing their masks. Then again, I've always been pretty optimistic :) 

 

Good luck with that.

 

The medical community will now be masked forever, simply for Liability reasons.

 

Schools will be masked, simply because the teacher unions will seek to inflict punishment on anyone that in any way is responsible for requiring them to actually go to work.

 

Any smart restaurant or private business will wear masks, again for liability.

 

Any larger business will require masks, again, for Liability purposes.

 

And anyone not wearing a mask, well, you're going to get called out as ignorant, or uncaring, or insensitive, certainly racist, supremacist, and "dangerous."

 

We have allowed the mask brigade to have power over us, and they're not going to give it up without a fight to the death.

 

130824420_10222684619171364_6499482883609851148_n.jpg.44f8a6e5fc3a6f11260541daf28b9728.jpg

 

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Posted (edited) · Report post

4 hours ago, TimS said:

My gut says by end of April we are looking at so few cases it will be hard to ask people to keep wearing their masks. Then again, I've always been pretty optimistic :) 

A third of states don't even require masks now, during the tail end of a brutal "once in a century" pandemic wave that's killed a quarter-million Americans since Halloween.

Screenshot_20210222-221145_Chrome.jpg.931e23d27858eb78eb5cbca331f689ba.jpg

 

There's already pressure building to drop restrictions. I dunno about northeast states lifting mask laws by late April or early May....... but by mid summer the pressure even here will be enormous-- considering over half the population will be vaccinated and infections likely few and far between.

 

You'll have a huge chunk of Americans going: "OK I got vaccinated. There's no covid around. It's mid summer and 95 out. And Baker/Cuomo/Fauci still wants me to mask up?? What the hell did I get vaccinated for if nothing was going to change??"

Edited by rst3

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7 hours ago, z-man said:

What does she do when she’s back in MA? Does she have a job? Is she quarantining or getting tested? Just going to Florida doesn’t make you a bad person. I went to Florida last summer and didn’t infect anyone or bring back Covid. 

yes she works three jobs waiting on tables...when the places are open....she's been tested three times because co-workers had it....got fired from one job cause she went an got tested...the owner didn't like that ,it was a breakfast place....runs to boston to see friends all the time....when she gets back from her trips she goes right back to work the next day...she's the type that needs to be in a crowd 24/7

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