capequahog

The Vaccine

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2,180 posts in this topic

20 hours ago, Twisted said:

What a freaking a-hole.  Is there a setting that I can use so I never have to see another post by scott, ever?!  rst preach on man, love reading your information.

You can always see you nose, you just learn to ignore it. When I see certain usernames, they barely register as I scroll past. Problem solved.

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Long weekend this past weekend spent in the Rangeley Region of Maine.

No nose poke. No papers. No masks.

Stayed with my 80 year old father, 2 brothers and my bro- inlaw. 

Ate in a sit down restaurant for the first time in about 15 months. 

Shopped in the big stores with no masks. No arrows on the floor. 

 

This is why.

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Mike, that's a nice fish.

 

bdowning, it's a matter of taste. I haven't Ignored a given poster yet, or needed to. If they make a real problem of themselves, TimS will exile them for whatever length of time he deems appropriate. 

 

TimS is looking at yet another software upgrade which will support an .exe file, which, if downloaded to a troublemaker's computer, will send messages to the local IRS office daring them to find how the poster is hiding his gambling winnings.

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On 6/7/2021 at 1:35 PM, BrianBM said:

We do have an Ignore setting, but you'll have to fumble around to find it.

How long do you have to fumble around?  I couldn't find it.

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3 hours ago, oc1 said:

How long do you have to fumble around?  I couldn't find it.

If your on a phone click the three horizontal lines in the top right.  Then go into account and ignored users.  Enter the members name and you should be all good.

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Some new thinking on boosters, variants. Figured I'd pass it along.

 

I) If you are "older" (no age range discussed, afaik; >65?...>75?? ), and especially older with risk factors: seems immunologists are starting to lean towards the opinion that older folks may need a booster sometime this fall.

 

Younger segment of the population may be able to wait longer before needing a booster, because their immune response to vaccination tends to be more robust, which means the immune components will take longer to wane to less protective levels that require a boost.

 

Nothing set in stone of course. Just relaying what seems to be the trend in thinking/analysis as new information becomes available for consideration each day.

***

II)

New England Vaccination 

We're doing very well.

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III)

B1617.2/Indian Variant/DELTA

 

> Not a good situation.

 Has the potential to 'reboot' the pandemic here in America.

Q: How much?

> Tiny bump? Moderate spike? Bigger problems?? Totally unknown. No models or experts have any handle on future case jumps with this variant.

Q: Could it get bad enough to pressure a temporary return to masking?

> Might. Not off the table by any means

 

A) Transmission speed of B1617.2

 

Coming into better focus now as more data has been analyzed. 

 

Yikes.

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That..is.. not great

> Ro for Flu is typically in the 1-2 range

 

"This virus has surprised us a lot. It is beyond anything we feared," said Dr Aris Katzourakis, who studies viral evolution at the University of Oxford. "The fact it has happened twice in 18 months, two lineages (Alpha and then Delta) each 50% more transmissible is a phenomenal amount of change."

It's "foolish", he thinks, to attempt to put a number on how high it could go, but he can easily see further jumps in transmission over the next couple of years, said Prof Barclay.

__

A virus with an Ro of 5-8 is extremely contagious. Odds favor the Indian variant moving quickly through unvaccinated pockets here in the US, once the variant gains dominant prevalence.

I'm beginning to seriously doubt the 'cooling effect' of respiratory virus off-season will be enough to keep the lid on DELTA until fall. 

 

IV)

DELTA vs Vaccines

I've come across information that makes the vaccines look like Cassius Clay. Outstanding protection. Hey, that's great!

 

> ...also seen other info that is less outstanding. 

 

A)

Situation in UK

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UK: cases up sharply, hospitalizations now rising instead of falling, deaths still falling

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Smidge uneasy about these numbers. I believe the deaths were basically all over 80 though. Obviously, the idea that vaccination would prevent/block every last infection was silly. 

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B)

DELTA in US

B1617.2 rising rapidly. Prevalence doubling every 7-10 days. P1(Brazil/GAMMA) also growing in frequency. B117(UK/ALPHA) on the decline

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***

V)

VOCs: traits and vaccine efficacy

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***

VI)

As for me: I chose to get the J&J vaccine in mid-March, mainly because I wanted something in my system "tomorrow." No, it's not as effective as the mRNAs at preventing mild to moderate illness. But it's solid on severe. 

 

Now? I'm going to top that puppy off with an mRNA 'booster.' Heterologous vaccination. Two different types. Data from study in England shows 2nd dose of Pfizer after prime of Astra-Zenica develops outstanding protection. Equal to two Pfizer doses. 

 

BNT= Pfizer

ChAdOx = AZ

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So, considering the imminent risk of DELTA, ima goin back in next week.. for a Pfizer boost. 

Edited by rst3

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We only had 33 new positive cases in MA yesterday and were averaging around 100 a day last week. I think we’ve done a pretty good job of slowing down this virus. Between all the people that have been vaccinated and all the others that already had the Rona there can’t be very many hosts left for the virus to infect. I haven’t worn a mask in a couple weeks now. We’re back to normal as far as I’m concerned. The kids even lined up and high fived the other team at baseball the other day. That hasn’t happened in well over a year. 

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11 hours ago, z-man said:

We only had 33 new positive cases in MA yesterday and were averaging around 100 a day last week. I think we’ve done a pretty good job of slowing down this virus. Between all the people that have been vaccinated and all the others that already had the Rona there can’t be very many hosts left for the virus to infect. I haven’t worn a mask in a couple weeks now. We’re back to normal as far as I’m concerned. The kids even lined up and high fived the other team at baseball the other day. That hasn’t happened in well over a year. 

Can't argue with any of that. It's all true. 

 

Our situation in Mass really is great right now. Lots of vaccinations, on top of many who already had the virus and gained immunity that way.

And the current collapse in infections down to near zero occurred with the UK variant as the dominant local strain. Which isn't a pushover virus by any means.

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Absent the Indian variant, I wouldn't see any reason to even think about coronavirus locally. At least not til perhaps mid to late October when some scattered outbreaks might've re-emerged among the unvaccinated. 

 

But delta is here and it will become the major strain locally in another 4-6wks. At that point will it run through unvaccinated kids and adults in late summer? I dunno. Nobody does.

How many vaccinated folks will pick up the strain anyway, despite their immunity? \_( ツ)_/

 

As for me? Like almost everyone I'm done with masks. Without most of the population wearing one, you'd have to wear an n95 if you wanted substantial protection from inbound aerosols anyway. And I ain't strapping a ventilator to my face this summer, regardless of DELTA. 

Best bet for me is just to boost my lower J&J immunity up a few notches with a mRNA booster shot, Heterologous style. And whatever happens after that at least I gave myself a strong chance to avoid getting sick. 

Edited by rst3

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Had always wondered what the actual reduction/boost in transmission speed/R was from seasonality. Couple new studies put it at +/- 42%. 

 

Summer reduces R by appx 42% vs an identical situation during the peak of cold and flu season. So a virus under control with an Rt < 1.0 in July, would get a boost to Rt that puts it well above 1.0 by late fall.. where it's spreading again.

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Matches well to actual case data from Massachusetts, where the virus took a nap last summer despite very low population immunity.

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This year, springtime declines here in MA temporarily reversed when the UK variant Alpha moved in with faster transmission speed-- which boosted Rt back above 1.0. But ultimately, the combination of rapidly increasing population immunity and dropping seasonal Rt overtook the variant's transmission advantage. Rt slipped back below 1.0 and that was that. 

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Sad.

We just fought through 18months of a once-in-a-century pandemic, against a powerful and devastating virus. We legitimately just hit low enough case levels to feel normal mere days ago, and immediately the news wants to prop up the common cold like it's a pending zombie apocalypse. 

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Have some decency people.

It's just the flu. 

Or the common cold.

Or RSV.

Not a pandemic-class, crisis virus.

Won't even let us breathe easy again for one week before the follow-on 'click bait style' stories appear. 

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Yeah, but we may have all learned something about avoiding the flu this year and developed some new habits.  Wash your hands and don't breathe on me.

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1 hour ago, oc1 said:

Yeah, but we may have all learned something about avoiding the flu this year and developed some new habits.  Wash your hands and don't breathe on me.

right and masks work.

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