capequahog

The Vaccine

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I get a kick out of Fauci today about Science tells us you don't need masks after getting vaccinated. They were all learning as we were all getting. Eff them.

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1 hour ago, The Riddler said:

I get a kick out of Fauci today about Science tells us you don't need masks after getting vaccinated. They were all learning as we were all getting. Eff them.

What’s your point? Do you want them to play a guessing game or use statistics to draw some conclusions?

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19 mins ago, levari said:

What’s your point? Do you want them to play a guessing game or use statistics to draw some conclusions?

My point is it's common sense. Even you can figure it out. The reward should have been mask removal from the get go with other vaccinated people. Instead the reward was a ****ing donut or get put into a lottery. 

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On 5/11/2021 at 2:45 PM, FEW3 said:

And not soon after the pic, UMass had a parade and event for their hockey team. Hope the parents win big time in court. 

There was a state wide ban on parades when UMASS held theirs and a lot of the students and players were not wearing masks.

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Posted (edited)

2 hours ago, The Riddler said:

My point is it's common sense. Even you can figure it out. The reward should have been mask removal from the get go with other vaccinated people. Instead the reward was a ****ing donut or get put into a lottery. 

With your common sense do you think that these requirements should be lifted for air travelers, bus and train riders?

Edited by levari

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Posted (edited)

10 hours ago, levari said:

With your common sense do you thing that these requirements should be lifted for air travelers, bus and train riders?

Well that means vaccination card....do you want "Your papers please?" 
 

I'm a plumber, not a communist...what side of the fence do you pee? 

Edited by bob_G

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Posted (edited)

10 hours ago, The Riddler said:

Well that means vaccination card....do you want "Your papers please?" 
 

I'm a plumber, not a communist...what side of the fence do you pee on? 

Yep, that’s exactly what they thought in India and Brazil. We are plumbers, not communists...Now they ran out of soccer fields...

Edited by bob_G

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More charts? Vaccinated people not living like they should is a real problem. 

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57 mins ago, scott7980 said:

More charts? Vaccinated people not living like they should is a real problem. 

 

9C1331D1-112F-48D3-9BBB-D61B584E2D1E.jpeg

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PicsArt_05-08-06_15_21.png.dec91bd3cf6b9032eadf54182deaa40f.png

 

Fig'd I'd chime back in.

Some new information to pass along.

 

Here in the northeast infection rates continue to collapse.

New Jersey -- which saw a sizable spring rebound thanks to more transmissible variants -- is now undergoing exponential decline, with a drop of 80% over the past two weeks

NJ:

Screenshot_20210515-141303_Chrome.jpg.7ed6c14c6c5564782893af9e38be4cbd.jpg

 

Massachusetts: cases are down 50% from two weeks ago.

Screenshot_20210515-142946_Chrome.jpg.8a6b120c796dfe2794284bccfbfa42e5.jpg

 

> The combination of mass vaccination and seasonality has overcome the transmission speed of B117... 

ezgif-3-a7a23ed7d337.gif.f62578a42589412bfc99caede78e4a1c.gif

...and driven the effective reproduction number(Rt) back below 1.0. So cases are dropping very fast once again.

 

Over the next two months, case numbers should continue to decline. Good chance they hit record lows by late July. 

 

Beyond that? Outlook is very positive, but may be a few bumps in road this fall

(see below)

***

Indian variant B.1.617.2 appears to be the new transmission speed champ on the world stage.

> UK variant B117 has been dethroned.

Sorry Limeys.

 

Very early* analysis suggests the Indian variant may transmit up to 50% faster than B117. And since B117 itself spreads 60% faster than original Wuhan C19...the new Indian bug flat out moves

 

Q: <Guy napping on hammock, raises head>

"HEY! I'm vaccinated. Should I worry about the new Indian variant??"

 

A: Nope. It does not carry significant immune escape properties. Vaccines have crushed it in early studies. Go back to sleep.

 

Analysis showing Indian variant starting to outcompete B117. This phenomenon is most obvious in the UK portion of the graphs below:

Screenshot_20210511-200515_Twitter.jpg.e8d84734a22ff6c13ce25d0ea99a87aa.jpg

 

The above graphs also include the South African B1351 variant, which is the most immune resistant of all strains worldwide. It's still bumbling along at very low levels, mainly because other variants with faster transmission speed outcompete B1351's moderate immune escape properties.

 

The UKs highly successful vaccination program has driven cases down to a low level. 

60a01dee651d3_coronavirus-data-explorer(11).png.8275be57a6ceba460e0d981aabe9e81e.png

 

..But cases are growing again in areas where B1617 is setting up shop. Its faster transmission speed changes the calculation for effective reproduction number(Rt), so areas that were below 1.0 with B117.. suddenly are back above 1.0 with B1617.

 

However, the most highly vaccinated age groups (oldest cohort) are not showing a bounce. This means 75%+* vaccinated (*or whatever % age 60+ is in the UK) is enough to keep Rt for B1617 under 1.0

Screenshot_20210515-113222_Twitter.jpg.a8783eefb519373fa5fee85de0b16cdb.jpg

 

Also: the Bolton, UK outbreak developed (and remains concentrated in) in an area with the lowest vaccination rates. (At least for over 40s)

Screenshot_20210515-113528_Twitter.jpg.dd428497ec518d6dc50d7d144cbb166f.jpg

Screenshot_20210515-113541_Twitter.jpg.045d89388d2ee72516d7c95f14232bde.jpg

 

Is there a decent chance that B1617 becomes a dominant player here in the US, over the next 2-4 months? Sure. It may slowly become established and widespread in coverage, even though overall covid case numbers nationwide should remain very low.

 

States that could run into problems with this strain next fall?

The Deep South.

Screenshot_20210515-161352_Chrome.jpg.0c78b17d0710ebe1d376fffc13f5234e.jpg

 

The vaccination rate in the South is roughly half of Massachusetts and the rest of New England.

Screenshot_20210515-161444_Chrome.jpg.8faa4532fe03ab6cda8e9fae59593105.jpg

Screenshot_20210515-161602_Chrome.jpg.8c34176bd4b2905476fee8c2e9e351d6.jpg

 

Looking ahead to next fall: I would not be surprised to see moderate outbreaks reccur with B1617 in the South. In fact, Alabama -- with its meager 35% 1st dose vaccination rate -- is one of only two states nationwide whose caseload is currently growing(AL up 90% in last two weeks). And that's just with B117. 

 

Unlikely to see much if any growth with B1617 in New England. By mid-fall, immunity here will probably be 75%+. Just from vaccination. Nevermind the ~33%(national number) who've already had covid and have natural immunity. The combined total immunity here in New England should be enough to overcome the faster transmission speed of B1617. And that will be that.

***

> But if you're already vaccinated? then none of this variant crap even matters.

B117?

B.1.1.7-variant-of-SARS-CoV-2.2.jpg.8cc9df09c0448ec3755b47906850e0e3.jpg

> Zzzzzz

 

B1617??

indian-variant-featured_cuftgc-1080x675.jpg.4cac345592732ae21f3618f3905cae54.jpg

> Zzzzzzzzz

 

B-52s???

R-3983193-1523016544-3311.jpeg.jpg.f643291e8929c0743b7767f148be330f.jpg

> Zzz--- ok fine. I'll get up for Rock Lobster

***

If you're not vaccinated? Well, hopefully that works out for you. And I say that with all sincerity. I may disagree with your choice, but I'd be a sicko if I didn't feel bad about people getting sick...Or worse. 

 

Containment measures are now ending, so we're quickly heading back to normal social interaction. Thank the lord. 

 

But that also means those who aren't vaccinated will be back socially mixing.. and more easily reached by the virus. Even if it is squashed to a low level of circulation in our communities.

 

I heard one doctor say, if you haven't had covid already and choose not to get vaccinated, then in all likelihood you'll pick up the virus at some point. 

> Ehhh..maybe, maybe not.

But if you don't contract covid over the next few years? I'd say that has much more to do with your fellow citizens getting vaccinated and breaking the back of the virus in the US, than it does about your ability to dodge it. 

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I have a chart that relates to charts. It is based into 5 sections, one two four and five are at a flat line representing zero interest  3 is peaking at 10 

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11 hours ago, scott7980 said:

I have a chart that relates to charts. It is based into 5 sections, one two four and five are at a flat line representing zero interest  3 is peaking at 10 

At least that was a coherent sentence, but you still get this for value added…

 

 

F129DB58-F3D4-456D-A8BE-EC7A1694E562.gif

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