capequahog

The Vaccine

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Posted (edited) · Report post

Think we can put a fork in large scale outbreaks for Massachusetts. That part of covid is done. Over. Addio. Au revoir.

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With 57% 1st shot vaccinated, MA is second best in the nation. Only NH ranks higher for states. New England owns each bracket of the top 5, with RI tied for sixth.

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...and the Bottom Ten...

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(Is Mississippi last in everything??)

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The US should be tracking towards UK and Israel over the next month, as our 1st shot rates slowly inch over 50%. 

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Besides that, we have the 'Hope-Simpson' theory on Respiratory Viruses in the Northern Hemisphere in our favor. Northern states/New England should experience seasonality in a big way, very soon. Just like last summer.

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By the time next cold & flu season rolls around, I suspect the number of vaccinated and immune will outweigh the boost in transmission from seasonality. So explosive, exponential regrowth is unlikely. Especially in highly vaccinated states, like those in New England.

***

So: what's the status on variants?

UK takes the gold.

NY, the silver.

And P1 the bronze.

 

The CA variant is all but finished-- outcompeted by more aggressive, more transmissible variants. The most immune resistant variant, SA B1351, does not appear to spread very well. At all. Its percentage is minute. So the selection advantage of transmission speed crushes the advantage of immune escape.

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In terms of pandemic modeling, Youyang Gu takes the gold. Even though he ended his modeling updates completely in early March, his predictions nearly two months ago have tracked solid with reality. Only the J&J fear-induced hit in mid-April knocked the actual track well off his predicted path.

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It should be mentioned that even though I've harped on the CDC for bungling the J&J Pause, and driving umpteen thousands of Americans away from getting vaccinated, vaccinations were likely to peak shortly after the pause anyway. So the difference between where we are now.. and where we would be w/o the pause.. is not likely as dramatic as it first appears.

 

That said.. there's 66M doses unused sitting in storage rn. Come on people. Get yer shots.

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***

The main pandemic period for the US and Massachusetts is coming to an end. The virus won't disappear, but its level in our communities should generally remain at low to very low levels from here on out. Periodic small outbreaks are to be expected, but we'll never return to the mass of cases, hospitalizations and deaths we saw in 2020 and early 2021.

***

Thanks to all who tolerated/put up with my long and endless posts on this thread, throughout late winter and early spring. Just wanted to pass along the best information I could dig up, to help folks here at SOL make informed decisions with respect to vaccination and the pandemic. 

The biggest thing I learned in researching thread content was how important the source for information truly was. Over time, those that remained strictly grounded to data and science tended to separate from those who became emotionally attached to doomsday-ing.

 

Although I worked a few years in biotech, almost everything I posted was new to me. Enjoyed learning about epidemiology, virology and vaccines to grab content for this thread. Interesting stuff. But with seasonality on the rise for our local fish species.. I'd be wise to turn my attention away from a virus I mostly likely won't catch(vaccinated), and back to my finn-ed friends I do hope to catch. 

***

Feel pretty good about most stuff on here, but obviously some information was wrong. One correction I wanted to make has to do with the number of vaccinated individuals who can expect to contract the virus. 

 

Still a little fuzzy on the topic, but I think my post about (for ex) "5 or 10% of mRNA vaxd people getting the virus.. or 30% of J&J vaxd getting it.." was wrong. That's the number infected in an outbreak when compared to a control group that's unvaccinated. Over the course of a year, my best guess and understanding is that a percent (or maaybe two), of vaccinated individuals, will contract the virus. Currently, most states are reporting much less than 1% breakthrough infections for those vaccinated. Though these numbers only cover a couple months. Extrapolating forward, and given the expected declines in virus frequency throughout communities, a percent or two over a year seems like a safe bet. 

***

Catch em up!

(Fish, not covid)

 

Edited by rst3

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22 mins ago, rst3 said:

Thanks to all who tolerated/put up with my long and endless posts on this thread, throughout late winter and early spring. Just wanted to pass along the best information I could dig up, to help folks here at SOL make informed decisions with respect to vaccination and the pandemic. 

As BrianBM has suggested, I believe you saved some lives with the information you've posted in this thread. Information rather than politics or feelings...I thank you for the effort as I've not found a thread on the rest of the site where one individual has made such an effort to get data based information and outstanding analysis out to people :clap:  

 

Now we just need to hope the billion people in India don't give this bug a chance to mutate into something we aren't ready for. I know the chances are slim...but I suspect India is gonna see a whole bunch of covid in the next few months....and more covid means more opportunity for mutation...and that's never good :blackeye: 

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Thanks man. Really appreciate it. 

 

The good news wrt India, among a sea of terrible news, is that early analysis puts some vaccines up to 98% efficacy for Indian variant B.1.617. So that's reassuring. 

 

At least to date, no variant on earth has demonstrated sufficient escape from vaccine induced immunity to require fully reworked boosters.

 

That's not to say a problem won't evolve from within the huge mass of covid exploding in India and elsewhere around the world. But I'm hopeful that even if it does, our current vaccines will at least strongly temper the severity of disease experienced amongst the vaccinated, until a reworked booster can be manufactured and administered.

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13 mins ago, rst3 said:

Thanks man. Really appreciate it. 

 

The good news wrt India, among a sea of terrible news, is that early analysis puts some vaccines up to 98% efficacy for Indian variant B.1.617. So that's reassuring. 

 

At least to date, no variant on earth has demonstrated sufficient escape from vaccine induced immunity to require fully reworked boosters.

 

That's not to say a problem won't evolve from within the huge mass of covid exploding in India and elsewhere around the world. But I'm hopeful that even if it does, our current vaccines will at least strongly temper the severity of disease experienced amongst the vaccinated, until a reworked booster can be manufactured and administered.

Thanks for the sane and factual posts. It is very cool that we were able to avail ourselves of that information in this venue. 

 

What, if anything, are you hearing on the duration of immunity imparted by the vaccines?

Do we have a resurgence to look forward to next year as immunity wears off?

I wonder if people will be as motivated to get boosters every year if the fear of the pandemic wanes.

With the virus alive and well and percolating (and potentially mutating) in the large pool of unvaccinated people still out there, I wonder if it will surge again as immunity wears off.

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Big uptick in hospitalizations at my facility in past 10 days. Two of which have had their first shots. Not starting anything just stating a fact. If you choose to get vaccinated and have comorbidities don’t let your guard down until fully vaccinated. 

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Thank you rst3.  It has been a lot of work.  I wish you could keep pumping out the info for us.

 

Palau?? Who would have guessed?

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Posted (edited) · Report post

Looks like NY, NJ, and CT will be eliminating many of the indoor business capacity limits (from 50% to 100%), restaurants for example, and outdoor gatherings, starting May 19th.  Indoor parties/gatherings capacity lifting by 50%.  State officials there citing improved covid cases numbers, and vaccination increases.  This will be approximately a month after allowing 16+ year olds the vaccine. Social distancing and mask requirements will still be in effect.  

 

For those with concerns lifting these restrictions here, what are you thoughts about our neighbors 200 miles away doing this?  And thoughts about some adults from Mass going to NYC after being cooped up, going on a hedonistic bender, and potentially returning infected?

 

I'm on record, hoping Massachusetts will similarly follow suit sooner than the  Aug 1 target.  I was thinking the end of May/first week of June in a previous post, which is 2 weeks after the second shot for 16+ in MA.   But if our neighbors to the south have announced opening up, what are we waiting for?   As many have proudly pointed out, Massachusetts and New England, in general, are among the leaders in vaccinations in the country.  What does the science recommend to policy makers 200 miles away that's different for policy makers here in Massachusetts.  An announcement lifting the mask requirements outdoors may be a good start...

Edited by danny_a

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Lifting the outdoor mask requirement in Mass has been liberating (yes, baby steps).  I don't think Gov. Baker is going to be peer pressured by the surrounding states to do something that the science does not support.  I am fine with that too.  At this point if we have to wait a little longer for things to return to "normal" so be it.  4 out of 5 of my house will be fully vaccinated this week (our 14 year old has to wait a little longer).  And I am headed to the Sox game tomorrow night, yahoo, "normalcy"!!  

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25 mins ago, danny_a said:

Looks like NY, NJ, and CT will be eliminating many of the indoor business capacity limits (from 50% to 100%), restaurants for example, and outdoor gatherings, starting May 19th.  Indoor parties/gatherings capacity lifting by 50%.  State officials there citing improved covid cases numbers, and vaccination increases.  This will be approximately a month after allowing 16+ year olds the vaccine. Social distancing and mask requirements will still be in effect.  

 

For those with concerns lifting these restrictions here, what are you thoughts about our neighbors 200 miles away doing this?  And thoughts about some adults from Mass going to NYC after being cooped up, going on a hedonistic bender, and potentially returning infected?

 

I'm on record, hoping Massachusetts will similarly follow suit sooner than the  Aug 1 target.  I was thinking the end of May/first week of June in a previous post, which is 2 weeks after the second shot for 16+ in MA.   But if our neighbors to the south have announced opening up, what are we waiting for?   As many have proudly pointed out, Massachusetts and New England, in general, are among the leaders in vaccinations in the country.  What does the science recommend to policy makers 200 miles away that's different for policy makers here in Massachusetts.  An announcement lifting the mask requirements outdoors may be a good start...

I don’t care where anyone else goes. Myself and pretty much everyone I hang out with are vaccinated except for our kids. Hopefully the people that are traveling, partying and eating out have been vaccinated as well so we can end this pandemic. I would like to see a no masks outdoors everywhere rule. Having kids play sports with masks on is just stupid. 

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On 5/2/2021 at 7:04 PM, mikez2 said:

What, if anything, are you hearing on the duration of immunity imparted by the vaccines?

Do we have a resurgence to look forward to next year as immunity wears off?

There's a difference between what I'm hearing from drug companies vs what I'm hearing from scientists. We know the vaccines protect very well for at least 6months. And "probably at least a year," according to many experts. Then they seem to diverge from the vax companies, who are pushing the narrative hard that boosters will be required in the 9-12mo time frame. Of course that benefits them financially. In a huge, huge way. 

 

Let's wait until more data is in this summer or fall, when longer term tests on the longevity of immunity for the clinical trial participants will be released. That's what we don't know about at the moment, because these vaccines haven't been in human bodies for even a year. So longevity of immunity remains a guess, with no data to definitively support either position. 

 

But we do know immunity tended to last many years for those infected by MERS or the original SARS coronaviruses. And scientists have said, early 6month vaccine data suggests longer term protection well beyond a year is definitely possible, given the strong numbers for antibodies and T-cells that were shown in the studies, and relatively small declines in protection observed.

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On 5/2/2021 at 6:44 PM, rst3 said:

At least to date, no variant on earth has demonstrated sufficient escape from vaccine induced immunity to require fully reworked boosters.

Exactly...and that is a wonderful thing :th:  But you won't hear that on the news :dismay: 

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On 5/3/2021 at 3:33 PM, danny_a said:

And thoughts about some adults from Mass going to NYC after being cooped up, going on a hedonistic bender, and potentially returning infected?

Protect yourself and let everyone else worry about themselves :) You know, like every other year this country has been in existence :howdy: 

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13 mins ago, TimS said:

Protect yourself and let everyone else worry about themselves :) You know, like every other year this country has been in existence :howdy: 

Agreed.  Thank you.

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On 5/2/2021 at 6:44 PM, rst3 said:

Thanks man. Really appreciate it. 

 

The good news wrt India, among a sea of terrible news, is that early analysis puts some vaccines up to 98% efficacy for Indian variant B.1.617. So that's reassuring. 

 

At least to date, no variant on earth has demonstrated sufficient escape from vaccine induced immunity to require fully reworked boosters.

 

That's not to say a problem won't evolve from within the huge mass of covid exploding in India and elsewhere around the world. But I'm hopeful that even if it does, our current vaccines will at least strongly temper the severity of disease experienced amongst the vaccinated, until a reworked booster can be manufactured and administered.

Rst3 - grateful for your rational, sane , level headed and enormously informative presence on this site.  Yours is a commendable palate cleanser and a welcome antidote to what often is a social media circus of soulless and vacuous trolls, political axe grinders and purveyors of general , what I’ll call “azzholia”... You are one of the few whom when I see has made a post, I instantly want to read... Cheers!

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