capequahog

The Vaccine

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44 mins ago, SwamOffStrong said:

Agree! I did have the fleeting thought: is it odd to take something I know might make me feel ill the next day?  
 

Then I remembered the way I drank every week in my 20s!!!!  :beers::poopfan:  

It’s definitely better to feel bad for a day or two than being stuck in bed for weeks with Covid. 

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1 hour ago, bdowning said:

I wonder what percentage this represents of the total number of people fully vaccinated in Michigan? None of these vaccines confer 100% immunity, and this may be in line with expected numbers who still get sick despite full vaccination. Hard to say without more info. 

It is a very low percentage. I haven’t had time to read into it more but I want to see if it is broken down by vaccine type. I wonder if it’s people that got J&J. 

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2 hours ago, z-man said:

I was just googling Michigan to see what was going on with their vaccination rates and came across this headline. Not good. 
 

At least 246 people in Michigan who were “fully vaccinated” against COVID-19 were later diagnosed with the virus, including 11 who were hospitalized and three who have died, according to the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services.  

I have friends that are ER nurses out there. The said it's looking like it was at its worst. They're converting floors again. 

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Posted (edited) · Report post

Vaccines: Beyond the Hype:

Efficacy, Effectiveness, and Comparative Risk

 

What's reality when it comes to Vaccines and the protection they offer you?

 

Gotta admit I'm a little guilty of describing vaccines like they're some kind of impenetrable force-field against C19.

> "Get vaccinated fellow surfcasters! ..110% efficacy!"

 

Reality:

"Public health experts emphasize that all three of the COVID-19 vaccines available in the United States are effective, particularly at preventing serious disease and death. 

In its large-scale clinical trials, the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine was shown to have a 95% efficacy rate in preventing symptomatic COVID-19, just 1 percentage point more than Moderna's. Both vaccines appear to be equally protective across age groups and racial and ethnic groups. 

 

The single-dose Johnson & Johnson vaccine was shown to have a 72% efficacy rate in the United States in preventing symptomatic illness and an 85% efficacy rate in preventing the most severe disease 28 days after vaccination.

 

Because the trials were conducted differently at different times, efficacy rates cannot be directly compared among the vaccines. 

 
The Pfizer and Moderna vaccines went through trials before the more contagious B.1.1.7, B.1.351 and P.1 variant strains that originated in the United Kingdom, South Africa and Brazil, respectively, were circulating. Johnson & Johnson's vaccine trials took place when there were high rates of transmission of those variants and in countries with a high prevalence of variant cases.

What does COVID vaccine efficacy rate mean?

A vaccine's efficacy rate is the reduction in cases of disease in the vaccinated group compared to the unvaccinated group in a clinical trial. 

 

So, for instance, in the Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine trials, of the 43,661 people who volunteered, 170 contracted coronavirus. Of them, 162 were in the placebo group and 8 were in the vaccine group. That means the rate of illness among the vaccinated group was 95% lower than in the placebo group. Thus, the vaccine has a 95% efficacy rate.

 

Is it different than effectiveness? 

Yes. A vaccine's effectiveness describes how well it protects people in the community, outside a carefully controlled clinical trial."

 

For example: if J&Js shot turns out to have 72% effectiveness(same in real world as trials), that means 28% of those vaccinated in the community will develop covid(almost always mild) if exposed to an Infectious dose. On a population level, if 100K J&J people are exposed, 28,000 would be expected to get covid. For Moderna and Pfizer, if effectiveness was identical to efficacy, 5000 per 100K exposed would still get sick. 

 

Real world data:

In Michigan, 246 breakthrough cases have been documented among the more than 1.8 million Michiganders who are fully vaccinated. The actual breakthough number is obviously higher, and these are just the reported infected breakthroughs to date. As time goes on, the numbers will rise.

 

"when you say three people have died after getting fully vaccinated, that means that 0.000176% of those vaccinated have died. That means that the vaccine is 99.999% effective in preventing death." 

 

Death Rate Compared:

• The death rate for those infected who are over 85 is 10%. 1 in 10.

• Over 75? 4.5%. 1 in 23.

• Fully Vaccinated?(numbers to date in Michigan) ....1 in 600,000

Edited by rst3

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Posted (edited) · Report post

12 hours ago, rst3 said:

Vaccines: Beyond the Hype:

Efficacy, Effectiveness, and Comparative Risk

 

What's reality when it comes to Vaccines and the protection they offer you?

 

Gotta admit I'm a little guilty of describing vaccines like they're some kind of impenetrable force-field against C19.

> "Get vaccinated fellow surfcasters! ..110% efficacy!"

 

Reality:

"Public health experts emphasize that all three of the COVID-19 vaccines available in the United States are effective, particularly at preventing serious disease and death. 

In its large-scale clinical trials, the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine was shown to have a 95% efficacy rate in preventing symptomatic COVID-19, just 1 percentage point more than Moderna's. Both vaccines appear to be equally protective across age groups and racial and ethnic groups. 

 

The single-dose Johnson & Johnson vaccine was shown to have a 72% efficacy rate in the United States in preventing symptomatic illness and an 85% efficacy rate in preventing the most severe disease 28 days after vaccination.

 

Because the trials were conducted differently at different times, efficacy rates cannot be directly compared among the vaccines. 

 
The Pfizer and Moderna vaccines went through trials before the more contagious B.1.1.7, B.1.351 and P.1 variant strains that originated in the United Kingdom, South Africa and Brazil, respectively, were circulating. Johnson & Johnson's vaccine trials took place when there were high rates of transmission of those variants and in countries with a high prevalence of variant cases.

What does COVID vaccine efficacy rate mean?

A vaccine's efficacy rate is the reduction in cases of disease in the vaccinated group compared to the unvaccinated group in a clinical trial. 

 

So, for instance, in the Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine trials, of the 43,661 people who volunteered, 170 contracted coronavirus. Of them, 162 were in the placebo group and 8 were in the vaccine group. That means the rate of illness among the vaccinated group was 95% lower than in the placebo group. Thus, the vaccine has a 95% efficacy rate.

 

Is it different than effectiveness? 

Yes. A vaccine's effectiveness describes how well it protects people in the community, outside a carefully controlled clinical trial."

 

For example: if J&Js shot turns out to have 72% effectiveness(same in real world as trials), that means 28% of those vaccinated in the community will develop covid(almost always mild) if exposed to an Infectious dose. On a population level, if 100K J&J people are exposed, 28,000 would be expected to get covid. For Moderna and Pfizer, if effectiveness was identical to efficacy, 5000 per 100K exposed would still get sick. 

 

Real world data:

In Michigan, 246 breakthrough cases have been documented among the more than 1.8 million Michiganders who are fully vaccinated. Although the actual breakthough number is certainly higher, let's stick with this for now. And, of course, these are just the infected breakthroughs to date. As time goes on, the numbers will rise.

 

But as of today:

"That breaks down to 0.0144% of those who have gotten the vaccine have come down with a breakthrough infection," Thomas said. "So that means that the vaccine is 99.99% effective in preventing infection.

"And then, when you say three people have died after getting fully vaccinated, that means that 0.00176% of those vaccinated have died. That means that the vaccine is 99.999% effective in preventing death." 

 

Death Rate Compared:

• The death rate for those infected who are over 85 is 10%. 1 in 10.

• Over 75? 4.5%. 1 in 23.

• Fully Vaccinated?(numbers to date in Michigan) ....1 in 600,000

 

Edit 2: the math in the article/quote is a smidge off. 3 dead out of 1.8M vaccinated is 1 per 600K, or 0.000176%. Not 0.00176%. They forgot a zero

The data certainly shows that the approved vaccines are doing an incredible job, but the idea that it’s 99.99% effective in preventing infection is a bit silly. A significant percentage of that group wouldn’t have been exposed to Covid/infected regardless of their immunization status. You really need a control group to make such claims.


 

Breakthrough infections shouldn’t be a surprise, they happened during trials with tens of thousands of people. Now we’re at hundreds of millions of people. Real world and trial data is showing that the approved vaccines are significantly reducing the risk of infection and severe illness, but the risk will never be zero.

 

Edited by C.Robin

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No vaxxers:

So you're just gonna risk the quick n mild "Covid Cold," nbd. Pick up some immunity, then back to normal and on your way. Amiright?

 

> Not so fast, muchacho.

 

Huge(in scope) study published in The Lancet looked at 14 neurological and psychiatric conditions which developed following Covid.

 

34% of those who get Covid were diagnosed with one or more serious neurological or psychiatric illnesses within 6 months.

 

Fun stuff. Like stroke, dementia, intracranial hemorrhage, myoneural junction/muscle disease, nerve disorders, psychosis. 

 

Screenshot_20210407-161208_Drive.jpg.e30c6986727d66071327de2afb7fcd41.jpg

 

Covid-19 is an extremely serious virus. It hits your body and plays for keeps. Sure.. you could get reasonably lucky and skate through with an asymptomatic infection and no residual problems. Or maybe not. The odds and risk are high. Even of you're young. Please.. for the love of bass and all that's holy---get yourself friggin vaccinated

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rst3, in all sincerity I say this: your posts are doing your fellow members a considerable and real service. I think you're going to save a life or two, or three.

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7 mins ago, C.Robin said:

The data certainly shows that the approved vaccines are doing an incredible job, but the idea that it’s 99.99% effective in preventing infection is a bit silly. A significant percentage of that group wouldn’t have been exposed to Covid/infected regardless of their immunization status. You really need a control group to make such claims.


 

Breakthrough inspections shouldn’t be a surprise, they happened during trials with tens of thousands of people. Now we’re at hundreds of millions of people. Real world and trial data is showing that the approved vaccines are significantly reducing the risk of infection and severe illness, but the risk will never be zero.

 

99.99% is more than a little bit silly.

 

I really shouldn't have included that ridiculous quote now that I think about it. And coming from a scientist he should've known better than to feed the journalist crack cocaine headline grabbers/hits like that one. I'll edit my post (...again...) to remove that

 

I don't have the data and graphs handy, but IIRC Israeli data had effectiveness somewhere in the 90s for Pfizer. Maybe it was as low as 90, I dunno don't remember exactly. But 90 sounds fairly reasonable to me. Certainly more reasonable than 99.99.

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Posted (edited) · Report post

Brian, thanks

I just want this thing done. It needs to end now.

We have a ftk-ton of outstanding vaccine pouring into the clinics now, and I just don't understand why a  of the country isnt going to ante-up and contribute to beating this plague, and help restorie some decent fking common health conditions for our country. 

 

For real people should get vaccinated. This virus would be finished no questions asked if 90 or 95% were vaccinated. Forget herd immunity we should be blowing by that number. America stuff like this has to get done. We dropped heavy coin on a buttload of high grade advanced vaccine and now it's here. Diamond vaccine coming out our eyeballs and some Americans are sitting on the sidelines. It's sad.

We can end this right quick and I think we all should. 

 

Edited by rst3

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12 hours ago, rst3 said:

Brian, thanks

I just want this thing done. It needs to end now.

We have a ftk-ton of outstanding vaccine pouring into the clinics now, and I just don't understand why a  of the country isnt going to ante-up and contribute to beating this plague, and help restorie some decent fking common health conditions for our country. 

 

For real people should get vaccinated. This virus would be finished no questions asked if 90 or 95% were vaccinated. Forget herd immunity we should be blowing by that number. America stuff like this has to get done. We dropped heavy coin on a buttload of high grade advanced vaccine and now it's here. Diamond vaccine coming out our eyeballs and some Americans are sitting on the sidelines. It's sad.

We can end this right quick and I think we all should. 

 

I just got my first shot this morning. A lot of the people I know that were originally nervous about the vaccine have gotten it. Even a few that were adamant about never getting it already got their shots. I think it’s just the conspiracy crowd that won’t get it. Sadly there is a huge amount of that crowd out there. 

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On 4/4/2021 at 10:09 AM, bob_G said:

Sandy and I both had our second Moderna last weekend. I had no reaction. Sandy got clobbered. Vomiting, chills, general malaise.  Lasted 2 days.

Same here, nothing for me, Carole got clobbered like Sandy, minus the vomiting...and only for 24 hours. Amazing how different people react...

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On 4/4/2021 at 1:42 PM, rst3 said:

Differences in vaccine hesitancy between states may lead to future sporadic regional outbreaks in areas that have poor vaccine compliance.

Sort of like filling in a puzzle...the areas that have pieces missing because of vaccine hesitancy will have those pieces filled in with immunity caused by outbreaks of covid. One way or another we will get to herd immunity - it's the only possible outcome :beers: 

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Sorry if this has been mentioned. I did not read 110 pages. If you were ever a smoker in your lifetime, you are eligible to be vaccinated now. I did not know this until yesterday, but I don't watch the news....

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On 4/6/2021 at 8:33 PM, BrianBM said:

Almost half of white evangelicals polled say they'll refuse the vaccine. A deep mistrust of science, and of the big government institutions that are science's public face, is the biggest single reason.

Nobody cares, 50% of evangelicals won't change a thing regarding herd immunity - a useless statistic from CNN to make you angry :howdy: 

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1 hour ago, TimS said:

Sort of like filling in a puzzle...the areas that have pieces missing because of vaccine hesitancy will have those pieces filled in with immunity caused by outbreaks of covid. One way or another we will get to herd immunity - it's the only possible outcome :beers: 

Unless a strong variant throws a wrench in the works.  It ain't over until it's over.

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