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Is our winter going to get worst?

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On 1/13/2021 at 2:29 AM, rst3 said:

Well right now there's a pretty even split in opinion as far as what February holds. Folks looking at the same data, but completely different interpretations. That doesn't give me any confidence. Moreover, I don't think the models have much of a handle on what the future holds rn..more than a week --or maaaybe two-- out. So the experts are split and the models are jumping around. Given all that-- I wouldn't throw in the towel just yet for a sucky 2nd half of ice season.

 

However... even if the floodgates open and a sustained Arctic outbreak occurs in February, we're already approaching the peak climatological bottom for winter temps (appx Jan 21st in Boston) After Feb 1st, the sun increasingly starts to make its presence felt. It's the opposite of early August ...when you first start to notice the dwindling hours of daylight. So a February freeze-up here in Southern NE doesn't have the staying power vs one in early January. 

 

The big stinkfist for me is, if, in response to the PV split we end up with 6wks of garbagey cold and storminess, from mid Feb through late March. Nothing worse than a below normal March, when for all intents winter is fading/done and folks are ready for spring... but winter just holds on. 

 

Yes, we've been trending warmer for a long time now. The numbers are silly if you dive into them. Since 2010, Blue Hill Observatory has recorded 39(I actually think it's now up to 40) "Top 10 warmest months" vs 1 Top 10 coldest. The data goes back to 1885 -- 135 years -- which is significant. 

 

Eeh0aLHWsAE_9QM.png.696b07882aae05d11043bef9920f6525.png

***

@mumichog I agree that during many winters, the effects of a PV split or displacement arrive here in the northeast 2-3 weeks after the stratospheric shenanigans. Doesn't always take that long.. but prob worth penciling in as a guide. Also agree that any cold outbreak this winter will likely start to our west, then move east.

 

Pretty sure we'll have a much better sense of how the second half to winter might go in another two weeks.

If the earth is  tens of millions of years old how is 135 years significant. I'm no expert but that's not an accurate statistical assessment. 

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3 hours ago, Budlightyear said:

If the earth is  tens of millions of years old how is 135 years significant. I'm no expert but that's not an accurate statistical assessment. 

To be more specific..

135 years of precise weather station measurements, taken daily from the same location, is significant in that most weather stations around the world have not operated and collected continuous data for 135 years.

 

So Blue Hill Observatory is great for comparing apples to apples: today.. to 135 years ago. It's significant because it demonstrates Massachusetts is warmer now, than during the 19th and 20th century. 

 

BHO data shows things are definitely changing on the local thermometer, and in the local environment.

ErF_uczVoAEbqy4.jpeg.4bf6f9a0f9ec2cecba108c0b6ba61bed.jpeg

EsCROaHW4AUAp73.jpeg.d7c80c54300eb459a791fcd43ca9d769.jpeg

 

 

As far as 135 years of temp data in comparison to the age of the earth? 4,540 million years/4.54B (Give or take 50 million..) Well in most respects that tiny snapshot of records doesn't tell us jack squat about the big picture.. but it can help us interpret recent changes when viewed in proper context.

 

To gain context, let's look back further. How about the past 2020 years, when compared to the 20th century average?

Er9oXkjXcAAF-Bm.jpeg.7158eda4b79cd125991466ed90e490b8.jpeg

 

Still though, 2020 years is but a skin cell on a pimple on the ass of 4.54 Billion years. Need more context!

 

So let's look back further.  Here's the past four ice age cycles-- about a half-million years. At the beginning of this time, "humans" were H. heidelbergensis, and had just made fire a part of their daily routine.image_369.jpg.a9c562be1c8ce0669e073726a6c734ac.jpg

John-Englander-4-Ice-Age-Cycles-Slide-Update-2020-800x600.jpg.1e892013221bca8da59596c840160db8.jpg

 

Things that stand out are the synchronization of Temperature, CO2, and Sea Levels. 

 

But again, 500,000 years is only 0.01% the age of the earth. So back further we go. 

Here's the last half-billion. Which for all intents covers the entire history of "advanced" life on earth. 

graph-from-scott-wing-620px.png.bfccfaaf3148f19d249cf4be6825a516.png

 

Breaking this time period down further, using a quasi-log scale, we can see more detail in climate cycles.

blog4_temp.png.6ccd7214bea3d8ab38901b1ae3ecb534.png

 

Ultimately, BHO data is great for demonstrating that, on average, Massachusetts' winters in the 21st century are warmer than those in the 20th, and the 19th.

 

Sure, there were warmer periods which occurred many times during earth's long climate history. But what stands out wrt our recent warming is the incredible speed of the rise. Normally these things take mucho time to cycle up and down. 

 

Besides reduced ice fishing locally... :)... what I worry most about wrt the current warming are rapid changes in local ecosystems[*fish*], and more broadly-- changes in sea level over the next few centuries. No sea level rise will not happen quickly. It's not like in 2035 Boston will be half underwater. But by the middle of the 22nd century and beyond? Ehh, no good. 

 

Sea level rise is not something you can fix. Unless you want to force the earth back into an ice age for a few millenia.. to transfer sea water back to land glaciers... but I doubt that'll be a popular option down the road. :).

Edited by rst3

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59 mins ago, zeke04 said:

One of the most troubling effects being observed is the rise in ocean acidity, a direct result of CO2 in the atmosphere.

Yep. Not to derail/hijack thread.. but I wouldn't want to be an oyster farmer in the mid-22nd century. Another hundred, hundred fifty years of acidification and shellfish are going to be in dire straits. 

***

Back to winter!

Or.. "March-uary" ...whatever you want to call it.

Despite all the shenanigans with the Polar Vortex, models continue to suggest no sustained cold on the horizon.

 

Looks like there'll be a small blip of negative EPO in the short term, which should allow for more seasonable temps/cold to briefly move through. Then right back to +EPO which shuts it back off

EsBQbVNU0AAiAl5.png.c97244238135c2046dc04c714e436c39.png

EsBQbxIVEAAKf-_.jpeg.b3719f158daa59d89b4279c16ab751f4.jpeg

 

EURO sticks with an overall continued above average temp pattern for next couple weeks

savetweetvid_EsDqWgFXUAI3tNP.gif.025060c7ea4f200a8196b457eddec50e.gif

 

Storm-wise, setup in mid-atmosphere is conducive for a shot or two during the last week in January. 

EsDE6AvXYAA8gpu.jpeg.f1b9c40129a26713a7368af58591ee07.jpeg

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21 mins ago, rst3 said:

Yep. Not to derail/hijack thread.. but I wouldn't want to be an oyster farmer in the mid-22nd century. Another hundred, hundred fifty years of acidification and shellfish are going to be in dire straits. 

***

Back to winter!

Or.. "March-uary" ...whatever you want to call it.

Despite all the shenanigans with the Polar Vortex, models continue to suggest no sustained cold on the horizon.

 

Looks like there'll be a small blip of negative EPO in the short term, which should allow for more seasonable temps/cold to briefly move through. Then right back to +EPO which shuts it back off

EsBQbVNU0AAiAl5.png.c97244238135c2046dc04c714e436c39.png

EsBQbxIVEAAKf-_.jpeg.b3719f158daa59d89b4279c16ab751f4.jpeg

 

EURO sticks with an overall continued above average temp pattern for next couple weeks

savetweetvid_EsDqWgFXUAI3tNP.gif.025060c7ea4f200a8196b457eddec50e.gif

 

Storm-wise, setup in mid-atmosphere is conducive for a shot or two during the last week in January. 

EsDE6AvXYAA8gpu.jpeg.f1b9c40129a26713a7368af58591ee07.jpeg

Good stuff, but damn, the lousey ice fishing really sucks!

I have to increase my carbon footprint by driving farther to find ice. ;)

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So if not here, where's the big cold?

Eurasia.

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Canada currently having it's warmest January on (meteorological) record.

 

This warmth has had a profound impact on the growth of Great Lakes ice. 

EsD_3ntW8AEZtXI.jpeg.4f291962ffa5916b4776c8a234106168.jpeg

 

So it's not just here in Mass with the crappy ice problems

 

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Thank you for the informative post. I see on the Co2 chart that each spike in Co2 was followed by a drop in the overall temp of the planet and sea levels.  So theoretically we have most likely maxed Co2 and will now start it's downward cycle of temp drop and sea level drops without any assistance from billions of dollars wasted on climate change. I find it interesting that the earth on average is the coldest it's ever been recently.  

graph-from-scott-wing-620px.png.bfccfaaf3148f19d249cf4be6825a516.png

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I’ve been waiting to put up our back yard skating rink until I see some below freezing daytime temps in the extended forecast. It doesn’t look like it’s happening anytime soon. I probably won’t set it up at all this year. Last year was pretty lame too with only a couple weeks of useable ice. 

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