foxfai

Is our winter going to get worst?

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A SSWE (Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event) doesn't mean every region in Northern hemisphere will get cold, IOW, below normal.  Early effects from the polar vortex disruption caused by the SSWE will hit Europe and Russia.   When the effect rolls around to North America in 2 to 3 weeks they maybe less severe after mixing with troposphere for extended time.  The thrust of the below normal temps appears to be aimed west of NE, especially in central Midwest and southeast.  There will be an enhancement of storm frequency either way (due to stronger warm/cold contrast) but early indications are the main storm tracks may aim slightly west of NE, which would mean mixed/precip/ice/rain scenarios could dominate more so than lots of snow.  La Nina is fading but still strong enough to exert some influence.  The thing to watch more closely is the MJO which has been suppressed for an extended period but is a strong factor when it comes to determining our weather trends.

 

Hey - last year it was 74F on this day.  

Edited by mumichog

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1 hour ago, rst3 said:

My take..fwiw 

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tldr: large uncertainty remains in the Northeastern US...wrt future effects[cold/snow] from the current disruptIon to the Polar Vortex.

 

Today:

super warm (for mid January) across most of the country

Erj14UtW4AI3Zmv.jpeg.fb7ef19f8714bc9507aa1ad693bdf947.jpeg

 

Near/med term outlook(6-10days)

Continued above average temps, and no snowstorms [around Boston/SNE] for a week and a half

Screenshot_20210112-181250_Chrome.jpg.af61d28264b87134b9a6e58b9632f0b4.jpg

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Screenshot_20210112-181345_Chrome.jpg.ce236c496e89a793199313f90e9d54b7.jpg
 

As you can see^, Northern Hemispheric cold is centered on Asia and Europe... while much of North America will continue to enjoy an above average January, temp-wise.

 

The 1st potential shot at a snowstorm for MA and SNE looks to be around the 23rd/24th. At that time we *may* be finally getting into some colder weather....though I wouldn't put too much stock in longer range outlooks at all right now. 

Screenshot_20210112-181448_Chrome.jpg.b05a15655cd8fd835443f80724eefd4c.jpg

 

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Can't emphasize enough there's substantial uncertainty as to what happens in February -->> [as a direct result of the current PV disruptIon/split]

 

First off, February is our snowiest and second coldest month. So there's going to be some snow and cold regardless...because w i n t e r.

 

Q- But will we have a long Arctic outbreak in Feb?

A- There's no sign of that yet.

Q- Will there be a parade of snowstorms up the eastcoast?

A- There's zero sign of that.

 

Typically we can tell a cpl weeks out if a pattern conducive to storminess is on deck. As of today, I'm just not seeing it up the road.

 

As for cold... imo the current above average temperature pattern is likely to break down towards the end of month. There are [some] signs of a shift in the EPO from positive to negative. Whether this occurs and then persists into February is anyone's guess.

ErkC5SGXMBEBO1S.png.3a7dd771ed140365a688a7e6a1eb1848.png

 

The Eastern Pacific Oscillation(EPO) can help to promote or inhibit Arctic cold shots into New England.

 

Upstream near Alaska, a high pressure ridge can set up that promotes cold shots downstream. 

epo_neg.png.14937b43c50f70c348b4650954d79631.png

 

Conversely, lower pressures near Alaska tend to inhibit Arctic outbreaks here in the northeast

epo_pos.png.dfe255396b1448b371b25abad2521cea.png

 

 

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So what the fark is going on with the Polar Vortex?

• Sudden Stratospheric Warming

• a reverse in the direction of flow

• disruptIon/displacement/split of the actual vortex

• Not unusual tho; happens every other winter or so

 

Quoted from Article:

 

But high-altitude heat waves called “sudden stratospheric warming events” can disrupt the vortex.

That’s what’s happening now. A wobble of the jet stream (the fast-moving wave of air that circles the Pole in the atmosphere below the polar vortex, has led to extreme warming in the stratosphere, disrupting the polar vortex.

 

“Essentially that vortex is getting shoved off the Pole and into the mid-Atlantic,” says IBM meteorologist Michael Ventrice.

 

It’s not especially unusual for the vortex to break down. Although this one is particularly powerful, “stratospheric warming events happen about every other year,” says Andrea Lopez Lang, an atmospheric scientist at the University at Albany.

 

Over the past week, a high-pressure ridge of air has sat in the lower atmosphere around Siberia. As the jet stream runs into that ridge, explains Lopez Lang, it directs waves of energy upwards towards the stratosphere.

 

“Think about ocean waves on a beach,” Amy Butler, a research scientist at NOAA Chemical Sciences Laboratory, wrote in an email. “when they crash on the shore, the energy from those waves is dissipated through friction with the beach surface. In the atmosphere, waves can also break, but in this case the energy from those waves slows the polar vortex and heats the stratosphere.”

 

That disruption caused the vortex to slow down and spread outwards. Now, Ventrice says, the vortex appears to be on a path to splitting, “where we have essentially two areas of a vortex.”

 

But it’s hard to predict what the exact on-the-ground consequences might be. “This field of research is still in its infancy,” Ventrice says. “We’re just understanding now that these splits are important for prediction of [weather patterns] going out weeks.”

“I think there’s going to be a spectrum of splits,” he says. Slightly different divisions could have different impacts on the weather, in ways that aren’t entirely understood, he says. “I’ve seen years where three vortices split out.”

This year, he thinks there will be “a little piece of the vortex that splits off and spins away.”

 

For most of the winter, says Ventrice, the jet stream has stayed to the north of the continental US. “That typically strangles all the Arctic air supply,” he says. But the breakdown of the vortex could change the shape of the jet stream below and end the pattern of mild weather.

 

“We’re starting to see some hints in our weather prediction models that there could be a pretty big shift in the North Pacific... that typically results in more of a connection with the Arctic Circle where cold arctic air can come down into North America”

 

It will take several weeks for the effects from the vortex to become clear on the surface. 

But once they’re there, they’ll likely be persistent.

 

“Most people think, why do we care what’s going on in the stratosphere? It’s 10 miles above us,” says Lopez Lang. “The reason we care is, when we disrupt this part of the atmosphere, it takes a really long time for it to recover. It can have impacts for up to two months for the lowest part of the stratosphere to get back to normal.”

 

Damn. Doesn't look very cold to me. Another sucky ice season. 

 

We're on one hell of a run for warm, going back to early last winter at least.

How many warm records have broken in the past year, year and a half?

 

No, that's not a climate change comment, just remarking on the recent past.

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4 hours ago, mikez2 said:

Damn. Doesn't look very cold to me. Another sucky ice season. 

 

We're on one hell of a run for warm, going back to early last winter at least.

How many warm records have broken in the past year, year and a half?

 

No, that's not a climate change comment, just remarking on the recent past.

Well right now there's a pretty even split in opinion as far as what February holds. Folks looking at the same data, but completely different interpretations. That doesn't give me any confidence. Moreover, I don't think the models have much of a handle on what the future holds rn..more than a week --or maaaybe two-- out. So the experts are split and the models are jumping around. Given all that-- I wouldn't throw in the towel just yet for a sucky 2nd half of ice season.

 

However... even if the floodgates open and a sustained Arctic outbreak occurs in February, we're already approaching the peak climatological bottom for winter temps (appx Jan 21st in Boston) After Feb 1st, the sun increasingly starts to make its presence felt. It's the opposite of early August ...when you first start to notice the dwindling hours of daylight. So a February freeze-up here in Southern NE doesn't have the staying power vs one in early January. 

 

The big stinkfist for me is, if, in response to the PV split we end up with 6wks of garbagey cold and storminess, from mid Feb through late March. Nothing worse than a below normal March, when for all intents winter is fading/done and folks are ready for spring... but winter just holds on. 

 

Yes, we've been trending warmer for a long time now. The numbers are silly if you dive into them. Since 2010, Blue Hill Observatory has recorded 39(I actually think it's now up to 40) "Top 10 warmest months" vs 1 Top 10 coldest. The data goes back to 1885 -- 135 years -- which is significant. 

 

Eeh0aLHWsAE_9QM.png.696b07882aae05d11043bef9920f6525.png

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@mumichog I agree that during many winters, the effects of a PV split or displacement arrive here in the northeast 2-3 weeks after the stratospheric shenanigans. Doesn't always take that long.. but prob worth penciling in as a guide. Also agree that any cold outbreak this winter will likely start to our west, then move east.

 

Pretty sure we'll have a much better sense of how the second half to winter might go in another two weeks.

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Contrary to the old poem, March is the cruelest month. Especially the first half. Too many false starts of spring. 

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I always felt that beginning of Feb is always the stormiest time of the winter. Wither we get snow or ice, that depends on if we are lucky.

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10 hours ago, rst3 said:

Well right now there's a pretty even split in opinion as far as what February holds. Folks looking at the same data, but completely different interpretations. That doesn't give me any confidence. Moreover, I don't think the models have much of a handle on what the future holds rn..more than a week --or maaaybe two-- out. So the experts are split and the models are jumping around. Given all that-- I wouldn't throw in the towel just yet for a sucky 2nd half of ice season.

 

However... even if the floodgates open and a sustained Arctic outbreak occurs in February, we're already approaching the peak climatological bottom for winter temps (appx Jan 21st in Boston) After Feb 1st, the sun increasingly starts to make its presence felt. It's the opposite of early August ...when you first start to notice the dwindling hours of daylight. So a February freeze-up here in Southern NE doesn't have the staying power vs one in early January. 

 

The big stinkfist for me is, if, in response to the PV split we end up with 6wks of garbagey cold and storminess, from mid Feb through late March. Nothing worse than a below normal March, when for all intents winter is fading/done and folks are ready for spring... but winter just holds on. 

 

Yes, we've been trending warmer for a long time now. The numbers are silly if you dive into them. Since 2010, Blue Hill Observatory has recorded 39(I actually think it's now up to 40) "Top 10 warmest months" vs 1 Top 10 coldest. The data goes back to 1885 -- 135 years -- which is significant. 

 

Eeh0aLHWsAE_9QM.png.696b07882aae05d11043bef9920f6525.png

***

@mumichog I agree that during many winters, the effects of a PV split or displacement arrive here in the northeast 2-3 weeks after the stratospheric shenanigans. Doesn't always take that long.. but prob worth penciling in as a guide. Also agree that any cold outbreak this winter will likely start to our west, then move east.

 

Pretty sure we'll have a much better sense of how the second half to winter might go in another two weeks.

At this point January looks like a wash for ice fishing locally. I shelled out the big bucks for the NH non-resident license so I can go north for ice.

February cold is all well and good but if it’s stormy, it can still screw up the fishing for my lazy Oldman ass. Just don't have the hunger to get out when there's six inches of slush and water under a foot of snow.

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17 mins ago, John O' said:

March is the new February.

 

2015 wasn't bad until February and then March. SLAMMED!

Oh for sure.

Highly anomalous cold and snow that February. Big time cold. In fact, I think that February was the single "Top 10 coldest month" over the past decade

Eeh0aLHWsAE_9QM.png.8df2d892977611bae054bcc7e3fe34ac.png

 

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19 hours ago, John O' said:

March is the new February.

 

2015 wasn't bad until February and then March. SLAMMED!

I remember commuting on public trans in that ####. :squid:

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Winter weather is a fickle mistress...some years it's calm and mild, others it's an angry maelstrom.

We usually have our worst weather in late January thru early March. (I gave a couple weeks as a buffer)

 

Now what we would LOVE to know is "Will we get lots of snow, lots of freezing temps, or BOTH?"

 

I would hate to have a winter where I wasn't able to ice fish or open water fish because of bad conditions for either.

You know, not enough safe ice or not enough open water. Kind of an "in between / limbo" kind of thing.

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I hate when we have a mild Winter. Usually means a cold wet spring.Drives me crazy, snow in April. Or 40s and rain.  When it’s 60 in February, but 30s in March and April.  Winter is winter, Cold, and wet. If it’s wet in spring so Be it, but that damn cold raw feeling makes me lose it.

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