foxfai

Is our winter going to get worst?

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https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/polar-vortex-collapse-winter-weather-europe-united-states-2021-fa/

 

Paging @rst3. Can we survive the last 3 months of winter?

 

 
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WEATHER FORECAST AFTER THE POLAR VORTEX COLLAPSE

 
We have now seen the changes that have happened after the stratospheric warming events in 2013 and 2004. But what can we expect from our current Polar Vortex breakdown event in 2021?

Looking 10 days ahead, we can already see a pretty wintery pattern. A strong high-pressure blocking system over Greenland appears around this time. It could be related to the stratospheric events, but further analysis will have to confirm a direct or indirect relation to it.

Such a strong blocking of course means lower pressure in the eastern United States and over the Siberian sector and Europe. We can see a negative anomaly extending towards Europe, imply a likely corridor for colder air transport, in a quasi cross-polar flow.

 

 

Edited by foxfai

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IDK...? But FF is right... we need a prediction.. I  read polar vortex was going to **** somebody up next week, but Spain chimed in a little early.. 20" in Madrid,  twice a century type thing.

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4 hours ago, wishiniwuzfishin said:

IDK...? But FF is right... we need a prediction.. I  read polar vortex was going to **** somebody up next week, but Spain chimed in a little early.. 20" in Madrid,  twice a century type thing.

Exactly. Madrid has not snowed in 70 years and this is one of their worst storm in 100 years. It's going to be a long winter for us.

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4 hours ago, wishiniwuzfishin said:

IDK...? But FF is right... we need a prediction.. I  read polar vortex was going to **** somebody up next week, .....


I will check Nostradamus’s quatrains for further information. 

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2 hours ago, bob_G said:

This winter we're blaming everything on la nina. 

Why not blame Donald Trump he gets blamed for every thing else now, some he deserves and some he does not. Peace and Prayers

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Lately seems like late February is when we've been getting most of the wintery weather. But I'm no weather man. 

It's the big fluctuations that always irk me. The swing from 50 degree weather, don't need a jacket, and the grass is practically growing, to polar vortex conditions a few days later. Those big swings always have me scrambling for my long-johns and warm clothes. 

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My take..fwiw 

***

tldr: large uncertainty remains in the Northeastern US...wrt future effects[cold/snow] from the current disruptIon to the Polar Vortex.

 

Today:

super warm (for mid January) across most of the country

Erj14UtW4AI3Zmv.jpeg.fb7ef19f8714bc9507aa1ad693bdf947.jpeg

 

Near/med term outlook(6-10days)

Continued above average temps, and no snowstorms [around Boston/SNE] for a week and a half

Screenshot_20210112-181250_Chrome.jpg.af61d28264b87134b9a6e58b9632f0b4.jpg

Read More
Screenshot_20210112-181345_Chrome.jpg.ce236c496e89a793199313f90e9d54b7.jpg
 

As you can see^, Northern Hemispheric cold is centered on Asia and Europe... while much of North America will continue to enjoy an above average January, temp-wise.

 

The 1st potential shot at a snowstorm for MA and SNE looks to be around the 23rd/24th. At that time we *may* be finally getting into some colder weather....though I wouldn't put too much stock in longer range outlooks at all right now. 

Screenshot_20210112-181448_Chrome.jpg.b05a15655cd8fd835443f80724eefd4c.jpg

 

***

Can't emphasize enough there's substantial uncertainty as to what happens in February -->> [as a direct result of the current PV disruptIon/split]

 

First off, February is our snowiest and second coldest month. So there's going to be some snow and cold regardless...because w i n t e r.

 

Q- But will we have a long Arctic outbreak in Feb?

A- There's no sign of that yet.

Q- Will there be a parade of snowstorms up the eastcoast?

A- There's zero sign of that.

 

Typically we can tell a cpl weeks out if a pattern conducive to storminess is on deck. As of today, I'm just not seeing it up the road.

 

As for cold... imo the current above average temperature pattern is likely to break down towards the end of month. There are [some] signs of a shift in the EPO from positive to negative. Whether this occurs and then persists into February is anyone's guess.

ErkC5SGXMBEBO1S.png.3a7dd771ed140365a688a7e6a1eb1848.png

 

The Eastern Pacific Oscillation(EPO) can help to promote or inhibit Arctic cold shots into New England.

 

Upstream near Alaska, a high pressure ridge can set up that promotes cold shots downstream. 

epo_neg.png.14937b43c50f70c348b4650954d79631.png

 

Conversely, lower pressures near Alaska tend to inhibit Arctic outbreaks here in the northeast

epo_pos.png.dfe255396b1448b371b25abad2521cea.png

 

 

***

So what the fark is going on with the Polar Vortex?

• Sudden Stratospheric Warming

• a reverse in the direction of flow

• disruptIon/displacement/split of the actual vortex

• Not unusual tho; happens every other winter or so

 

Quoted from Article:

 

But high-altitude heat waves called “sudden stratospheric warming events” can disrupt the vortex.

That’s what’s happening now. A wobble of the jet stream (the fast-moving wave of air that circles the Pole in the atmosphere below the polar vortex, has led to extreme warming in the stratosphere, disrupting the polar vortex.

 

“Essentially that vortex is getting shoved off the Pole and into the mid-Atlantic,” says IBM meteorologist Michael Ventrice.

 

It’s not especially unusual for the vortex to break down. Although this one is particularly powerful, “stratospheric warming events happen about every other year,” says Andrea Lopez Lang, an atmospheric scientist at the University at Albany.

 

Over the past week, a high-pressure ridge of air has sat in the lower atmosphere around Siberia. As the jet stream runs into that ridge, explains Lopez Lang, it directs waves of energy upwards towards the stratosphere.

 

“Think about ocean waves on a beach,” Amy Butler, a research scientist at NOAA Chemical Sciences Laboratory, wrote in an email. “when they crash on the shore, the energy from those waves is dissipated through friction with the beach surface. In the atmosphere, waves can also break, but in this case the energy from those waves slows the polar vortex and heats the stratosphere.”

 

That disruption caused the vortex to slow down and spread outwards. Now, Ventrice says, the vortex appears to be on a path to splitting, “where we have essentially two areas of a vortex.”

 

But it’s hard to predict what the exact on-the-ground consequences might be. “This field of research is still in its infancy,” Ventrice says. “We’re just understanding now that these splits are important for prediction of [weather patterns] going out weeks.”

“I think there’s going to be a spectrum of splits,” he says. Slightly different divisions could have different impacts on the weather, in ways that aren’t entirely understood, he says. “I’ve seen years where three vortices split out.”

This year, he thinks there will be “a little piece of the vortex that splits off and spins away.”

 

For most of the winter, says Ventrice, the jet stream has stayed to the north of the continental US. “That typically strangles all the Arctic air supply,” he says. But the breakdown of the vortex could change the shape of the jet stream below and end the pattern of mild weather.

 

“We’re starting to see some hints in our weather prediction models that there could be a pretty big shift in the North Pacific... that typically results in more of a connection with the Arctic Circle where cold arctic air can come down into North America”

 

It will take several weeks for the effects from the vortex to become clear on the surface. 

But once they’re there, they’ll likely be persistent.

 

“Most people think, why do we care what’s going on in the stratosphere? It’s 10 miles above us,” says Lopez Lang. “The reason we care is, when we disrupt this part of the atmosphere, it takes a really long time for it to recover. It can have impacts for up to two months for the lowest part of the stratosphere to get back to normal.”

 

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