flyangler

"Why Doesn’t It Feel Like Biden is Winning?" - Polls vs observations...

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If you could snap your fingers and remove the polls, the DEMedia talking heads, the cable opinion shows (Fox and DEMedia), Rush Limbaugh and the rigged "town halls", what would your personal observations and anecdotal evidence tell you about the upcoming election? What would you say, under those circumstances, that if feels like? What is your gut telling you?

 

It is a great exercise. Consider the PG's own Trump haters, their only means of supporting their belief in Biden is the polls. Take the polls and witty memes away from them and what do they have to offer to bolster their case that Biden is the future president?

  • Too many Biden lawn sign to counts?
  • Biden flotillas?
  • Biden caravans?
  • Vehicles festooned with Biden flags? 
  • Biden tshirts or tattoos? 
  • More Dem voter registrations than GOP?
  • A really strong feeling that their neighbors are more likely to vote for Biden over Trump? 
  • A giant BIDEN sign along the freeway in California? 
  • The Democratic leadership, and the NeverTrumpers acting like they are winning? 

 

Seriously, if not for the polls and the DEMedia constant harping, what are the signs that Biden is actually winning right now?

 

Observation: Trump campaign is moving TV ad spending out of Ohio and Georgia - why? If those states are on the bring of voting for Biden, why is Team Trump deemphasizing those states? Do their own polls tell them they are safe there and they can shift funds to more competitive arenas? 

 

Observation: If Biden, son of Scranton, has Pennsylvania nailed down, why is he spending so much time with and within the state and so my money on TV ads? 

 

Yes, yes, yes, this is all anecdotal evidence. But in a world devoid of professional public polling, those types of indicators are what opinions are based upon. 

 

Bill Clinton felt it in his gut in 2016 and was told to shut up by David Ploufe. Prior to that, WJC was called the sharpest retail politician of his generation. 

Why Doesn’t It Feel Like Biden is Winning?

President Trump has made fools out of thousands of prophets predicting his doom.
By Adam Mill | October 5, 2020

 

On Tuesday November 8, 2016 at 7:00 pm, I entered an Uber to travel to a Chicago-area stand-up comedy club in search of escape from the inevitable. The New York Times set Clinton’s percentage chance at victory in the high-90s. The driver had his radio tuned to a panel of NPR election experts assembled to announce the results as they came in. Most of the panel members chirped enthusiastically about Clinton’s inevitable victory. But one Clinton supporter spoke in hushed tones regarding the results from a particular county in Florida. I could hear it in his voice. My news sources still showed a likely Clinton victory. But this expert’s voice told the truth: The polls were wrong.

 

As we approach the next election, the polls again show an insurmountably persistent Trump deficit in the popular vote and even in key battleground states. Poll aggregator Nate Silver estimates Trump’s approval to be below Obama, Clinton, and Reagan at similar points in their presidencies. Silver fixes the chance of a Biden victory at 81 percent as of his writing on October 5th. The betting markets show a recent collapse in confidence that Trump will be reelected. 

 

So why doesn’t it feel like Biden is winning?

 

If we had no polls, betting markets, or professional pontificators, what outcome would we predict from the things that we can observe with our own eyes and ears? Let’s run through a few non-scientific intangibles that don’t seem to line-up with the polling.

 

The media is actively sheltering Biden. If a Biden victory were indeed inevitable, would we see such vigorous coordination by the media to shelter and prop up Biden? As I recently noted, even a casual observer could see the media seemed to be tipping-off Biden on the already-softball questions it intended to ask. It is also clear that the moderator at the first debate frequently interfered to protect Biden from questions about his son’s corruption, potential Biden Supreme Court nominees, Biden’s position on phasing out private insurance, Biden’s specific criticism of Trump’s COVID-19 policies, and the reasons for Biden’s law enforcement support deficit. 

 

In addition, it’s become patently obvious that the Biden campaign and the media intended a strategy of releasing a coordinated scandal hit on Trump every two to three days until election day. For example, the Bob Woodward piece, the Atlantic hit piece, the New York Times hit piece on Trump’s taxes, and the new coordinated mischaracterization of Trump’s “failure” to condemn white supremacists, since a mere 99 times of denouncing them simply doesn’t suffice and he is required to do it for the 100th time as called upon by Chris Wallace.

 

Voters don’t vote to ban their new guns. According to the Left-leaning Brooking’s institute, “But with roughly 150 million registered to vote, that’s a huge block of potential voters. Brookings made this observation before the awful rioting in Kenosha, Wisconsin and Louisville, Kentucky. There are no reliable statistics for the proportion of those weapons that might be subject to a future Biden-sponsored gun-ban.  In just the first six months of 2020, approximately 19 million firearms have been sold, representing more than one firearm for every 20 Americans.” But acute shortages of ammunition for AR-15s point to a large group of voters who might feel their guns will be targeted by a Biden Administration. It seems counter-intuitive that gun owners would vote for a candidate promising to ban those same weapons. 

 

What about Biden’s incompetent messaging? Biden and his campaign just don’t act like they think they’re winning. First his imitative theme, “Build Back Better,” despite the awkward alliteration, is essentially identical to “Make America Great Again.” He’s played a prevent-defense style campaign by avoiding issues and public appearances. Biden prefers to attack Trump rather than articulating policy intentions. 

 

After months of campaigning by Zoom, he suddenly emerged to conduct a smattering of lightly-attended functions. Yet, while polls tell us that Biden has never stopped beating Trump, the campaign abruptly lurched from raising money to bail out rioters to an unconvincing “law and order” stance. Then the Biden campaign made another radical lurch from encouraging their voters to mail in ballots to voting in person. Most recently, the Biden campaign promised to pull negative ads attacking the COVID-19-positive president but failed to do so. This tells me that the Biden campaign isn’t following advice from good political consultants and could easily be wrong-footed again.  

 

The campaign is full of toxic political correctness. In the face of the George Floyd death, the Left seemed to have stormed all of America all at once with new speech rules. Simply failing to enthusiastically cheer the violent neo-Marxist/Maoist groups burning and looting our cities will get you fired by our Chinese-canoodling corporate overlords. Many Trump votes were cast as a protest to the suffocating political-correctness atmosphere of 2016. Since that atmosphere has become even more suffocating, those protest votes may grow. Even as the media pushes the “Trump is a white supremacist” narrative, minorities have begun to peel away from the Democrats in increasing numbers. 

 

History is not on Biden’s side. It’s not a small thing that historical precedent strongly suggests Trump will be re-elected. Think of the last three times a challenger upset an incumbent: Bill Clinton over George W. Bush, Reagan over Carter, and Carter over Ford. Does Joe Biden have the umph of a Clinton or a Reagan? Remember, a younger, better-looking Biden lost to Michael Dukakis, who lost to George H.W. Bush. Taking that one step further, Bush lost to a charismatic Clinton. But all of that Arkansas charm wasn’t enough to prevent his wife from losing to Trump.  

 

The intensity of Trump’s campaign is unstoppable. To quote one phrase making the rounds, Trump supporters will fight murder hornets, COVID-19, and rioters to vote in person. Biden supporters hate Trump. But Biden himself does not inspire hope or confidence the way an Obama or Bill Clinton did. Trump frequently boasts of the enthusiasm of his followers, signs of which one can easily see in rally attendance and the ubiquity of MAGA hats and yard signs. The MAGA rally even followed the president to Walter Reed when he could no longer come to the rallies.

 

There is a great upheaval of our population underway. Many have commented on the mass exodus happening across the country as the middle class flees the urban areas. Some of this is brought on by the telework revolution that makes living near the office an expensive luxury. But a significant number of Americans are fleeing high crime, chaos, and taxes that plague the Democrat-run cities. Some will take their Democrat-voting habits with them, but many more will either fail to vote during the transition or will vote against the party that drove them from their city homes. 

 

President Trump has made fools out of thousands of prophets predicting his doom. While the public consumes a steady diet of polls commissioned by the same news organizations that so obviously want to wish a Trump defeat into reality, we know that the campaigns conduct their own secret polling. Thus, we should take note when the actions of the campaigns don’t match the numbers in the polls.

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Would this be an example of narrative torpedo?

 

Free Beacon

 

College campuses that once reliably boosted Democratic candidates in key swing states have seen voter registration rates plunge amid coronavirus shutdowns, public data show.

Universities across the country have embraced online-only classes or "hybrid" learning models in response to the pandemic. Those restrictions, a Washington Free Beacon review of voter registration data found, have likely dealt a blow to Democrats in some of the most competitive election races in the country. New voter registrations in the vicinity of seven major public universities in Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, and North Carolina have plummeted compared with 2016.

The locked-down college campus, in other words, could help determine the 2020 election, as thousands of students either vote from their home states or do not register at all. That could be a setback for Democratic contender Joe Biden, and for Democrats down-ballot, given the party's overwhelming popularity with America's most liberal and least politically engaged age group.

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38 mins ago, Little said:

People dont vote to ban their new guns.  Thoughtful, I like that.

 

 

Question for @flyangler  I never heard the "Clinton felt it in his gut "  about Trump.  Expound please.

FF8B1ADB-0FD6-439B-8F66-F43F8A472D66.jpeg.600200f05752250f27578b5aadd52fb0.jpeg

“Early on, Mr. Clinton had pleaded with Robby Mook, Mrs. Clinton’s campaign manager, to do more outreach with working-class white and rural voters. But his advice fell on deaf ears.”

 

—————

 

Bill saw/felt what Michael Moore did in 2016, his wife’s campaign was taking certain folks for granted. He was right, they were voting Trump feeling abandoned by Hillary. 


 

 

Edited by flyangler

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Flail away. Biden isn’t a cult of personality, this election will be about Trump, and Trump only. I would wager that the majority of this country is tired of a two bit con artist and his circus of clowns ruining this nation. All Biden has to do is sit back and let Donald beat himself in this one. 

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Again.

 

Here we have a portion of former Reagan speechifier and WSJ columnist Peggy Noonan's column the day before the election in 2012.  As part of her in depth analysis and calculations she used the "crowd size" and "yard sign" metrics and ignored the polls.

 

How'd that work out Peggy? :laugh:

 

Epic Fail.

 

  Quote

 

...Romney’s crowds are building—28,000 in Morrisville, Pa., last night; 30,000 in West Chester, Ohio, Friday. It isn’t only a triumph of advance planning: People came, they got through security and waited for hours in the cold. His rallies look like rallies now, not enactments. In some new way he’s caught his stride. He looks happy and grateful. His closing speech has been positive, future-looking, sweetly patriotic. His closing ads are sharp—the one about what’s going on at the rallies is moving...

 

...There is no denying the Republicans have the passion now, the enthusiasm. The Democrats do not. Independents are breaking for Romney. And there’s the thing about the yard signs. In Florida a few weeks ago I saw Romney signs, not Obama ones. From Ohio I hear the same. From tony Northwest Washington, D.C., I hear the same.

 

Is it possible this whole thing is playing out before our eyes and we’re not really noticing because we’re too busy looking at data on paper instead of what’s in front of us? Maybe that’s the real distortion of the polls this year: They left us discounting the world around us...    

 

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18 mins ago, slowroller said:

Flail away. Biden isn’t a cult of personality, this election will be about Trump, and Trump only. I would wager that the majority of this country is tired of a two bit con artist and his circus of clowns ruining this nation. All Biden has to do is sit back and let Donald beat himself in this one. 

You would wager? 
 

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13 mins ago, moonbat said:

Again.

 

Here we have a portion of former Reagan speechifier and WSJ columnist Peggy Noonan's column the day before the election in 2012.  As part of her in depth analysis and calculations she used the "crowd size" and "yard sign" metrics and ignored the polls.

 

How'd that work out Peggy? :laugh:

 

Epic Fail.

 

  Quote

 

...Romney’s crowds are building—28,000 in Morrisville, Pa., last night; 30,000 in West Chester, Ohio, Friday. It isn’t only a triumph of advance planning: People came, they got through security and waited for hours in the cold. His rallies look like rallies now, not enactments. In some new way he’s caught his stride. He looks happy and grateful. His closing speech has been positive, future-looking, sweetly patriotic. His closing ads are sharp—the one about what’s going on at the rallies is moving...

 

...There is no denying the Republicans have the passion now, the enthusiasm. The Democrats do not. Independents are breaking for Romney. And there’s the thing about the yard signs. In Florida a few weeks ago I saw Romney signs, not Obama ones. From Ohio I hear the same. From tony Northwest Washington, D.C., I hear the same.

 

Is it possible this whole thing is playing out before our eyes and we’re not really noticing because we’re too busy looking at data on paper instead of what’s in front of us? Maybe that’s the real distortion of the polls this year: They left us discounting the world around us...    

 

Peggy Noonan is a tool. Her career peaked with Reagan. Her piece about 9/11 was the best she wrote since them. Her “margin of safety” piece in early 2009 was the least thing she wrote that is relevant. She voted for Obama in 2008 by her own admission. O appalled her with the ACA so she tried to put her stuff behind Romney. 
 

She hates Trump. She is meaningless. 
 

Finny how you have going back to her, again, and avoid addressing the observations in the OP. Given your entire rationale for your Biden love is polls, the OP is probably inconvenient. 

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44 mins ago, slowroller said:

Flail away. Biden isn’t a cult of personality, this election will be about Trump, and Trump only. I would wager that the majority of this country is tired of a two bit con artist and his circus of clowns ruining this nation. All Biden has to do is sit back and let Donald beat himself in this one. 

“Flail”? How about YOU address the OP? 

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Keep in mind, especially during the primaries, Biden is not really the kind of guy college kids tend to support. Bernie is more their type of candidate and them have seen twice now how the DNC handles people like Bernie. I don't see them being overly motivated to come out for Biden like they would Bernie. 

 

It was mentioned before, but why is Biden spending so much time and money on Pennsylvania if it is his native state and is locked up for him? Constant town halls in PA, campaign ads constantly on every radio station and TV station. You can see where he is worried in the state too, he is not making trips to Philly, or Pitt. It is the working class towns and cities. He is worried those will still vote for Trump. 

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1 hour ago, flyangler said:

Peggy Noonan is a tool. Her career peaked with Reagan. Her piece about 9/11 was the best she wrote since them. Her “margin of safety” piece in early 2009 was the least thing she wrote that is relevant. She voted for Obama in 2008 by her own admission. O appalled her with the ACA so she tried to put her stuff behind Romney. 
 

She hates Trump. She is meaningless. 
 

Finny how you have going back to her, again, and avoid addressing the observations in the OP. Given your entire rationale for your Biden love is polls, the OP is probably inconvenient. 

You are so wrong.  I said Donald Trump would be a one term president 3 years ago.  The polls are supporting what I wrote three years ago.

 

Why did I think that?  Because the guy drew to an inside straight in 2016.  

 

That said the incumbent usually has the power of the presidency to look presidential for 4 years which is why it is so difficult to unseat an incumbent.

 

But after a year of watching this guy, and how he blamed any problem on anybody else, or threw his own appointees under the bus, and how he would embellish every little thing, I believed he was done.

 

Why?  Because every first term president has a moment that defines him, and I believed he would not rise to the occasion IN THE EYES OF THE AMERICAN PEOPLE. Enter Covid 19

 

I agree Noonan is a Tool.  That is why I posted the article.  She made the Tool argument  on why Romney would win.

 

It is the same argument I am seeing here, day after day and saw back in 2012 when I called the election before Nate Silver even had his site up.  It is not a hard thing to do if you do not have partisan blinders on.  

 

Any way the reasons for Romney victory were the same as today.

 

Trumps Lawn sign lead = Trump victory

Trumps rallies = Trump victory

Polls suck =     Trump Victory

All the people I know are voting Trump = Trump victory

 

You can put Romney's name in place of Trump any time.

 

Indeed it was the election of Dean Chambers and unskewed polls dot com.  He said the polls weighted democrats too much so he unskewed them.  He had Romney winning in a landslide about two weeks out.

 

So in IMO it's the same old same old from 2012.

 

Edited by moonbat

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