flyangler

Biden/Harris/Dems Need Gen Z to Vote - What if they don't turnout?

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What have we here? A liberal professor of politics at a liberal school talks to students and wonders aloud whether the turnout next month by Gen Z is over-stated, maybe materially so. 

 

Read the following and add to it the distanced that Harris-Biden are trying to put between themselves and the GND. 

 

The only poll that matters is the one that logs actual votes. So much enthusiasm is supposedly displayed by young people in the public polls, but what if that is a mirage and the Dems have miscalculated? 

 

Don't Assume Gen Z Will Show Up

As the November presidential election approaches, stories abound showing overwhelming support among Generation Z for former Vice President Joe Biden over President Trump, with claims like “Young voters backing Biden by 2-to-1 margin.”

 

While many may assume widespread electoral support for Biden among younger voters is a fait accompli, a surprising number of Gen Z voters may have already chosen to opt out of voting come November.

 

The idea that these voters would essentially “stay home” on Election Day is counterintuitive, given their heightened interest in our polarized times, but my ideas changed once the fall school year reopened and I had a chance to speak with scores of students around the country. Their stories were consistent: Gen Zers were having trouble accepting Joe Biden as their candidate of choice and staying home and opting out was appealing to them. Despite my comments that this could lead to a second Trump term, students consistently said that Biden did not inspire them. New survey data suggests that Gen Z’s turnout may be overstated. Politicos should take note.

 

First, the fall youth poll from Harvard’s Institute of Politics finds a significant enthusiasm gap between the candidates: 56% of America’s 18-to-29-year-old likely voters who support Trump are "very enthusiastic" about voting for him. This stands in stark contrast to just 35% of likely voters who back Biden. Those in Gen Z are generally not excited about the Democratic nominee and tell me that they were deflated when more progressive candidates dropped out of the race. Such low levels of enthusiasm may not translate to actually casting a ballot.

 

Second, as the American Enterprise Institute’s new “Socially Distant: How Our Divided Social Networks Explain Our Politics” survey reveals, just 7% of Gen Zers have a very favorable view of Biden while another 40% have a favorable view – making for a 47% overall favorability rating. While this is appreciably higher than Trump’s 20% favorability rating, it is anything but a landslide of support from younger Americans for Biden. My students regularly share the fact that they have trouble getting behind Biden given his  history of inappropriately touching women and his less than consistent left-of-center positions. This fact, along with the Harvard enthusiasm data, again suggests that the drive to vote for Biden may indeed be lower than many narratives assert; candidates need to inspire voters to drive turnout.

 

Relatedly, the survey asks if it has been easy or hard to make a decision about who to vote for this year (2020). Given the polarized climate and the overall disdain for the Trump administration among young people, one would think that making a decision about voting in a few weeks should be fairly easy. However, 30% of Gen Zers and Millennials state that their decision was hard – this is significantly higher than their parents (21%) and grandparents (14% for Boomers and 10% of Silents) – and again provides a hint of evidence that Gen Zers may opt out of voting entirely.

 

Going further, when asked who they’d vote for if the election were held today, Gen Z is not uniformly in support of Biden: 57% would vote for Biden and 18% for Trump. But 6% state someone else and another 19% say that they will sit this election out. And compared to the older cohorts, this intention to sit out is very different: Just 8% of Gen Xers and 5% of Boomers do not intend to vote.

 

Moreover, when asked about how certain they are about their choice, those in Gen Z are less certain compared to older cohorts. Just 51% of those in Gen Z state that they are absolutely certain that they will vote in the 2020 election; this shows that Biden’s support in large numbers is not assured. In contrast, 71% of those in Gen X and 80% of the Boomers state that they are absolutely certain that they will vote.

 

Finally, the survey data makes it clear that those in Gen Z are politically engaged, but not necessarily with the election. Two-thirds (67%) have been following the election fairly or very closely, notably lower than the 88% who have been paying attention to the COVID-19 pandemic and the 80% who are following the BLM protests. Gen Zers are not ignoring current events, but they may be increasingly disinterested in the election itself.

 

Collectively, these data points confirm a story that my students have been sharing with me for the past month: Do not assume that Gen Zers will vote this fall. Excitement for Biden is low and large numbers of Gen Zers already report that they do not intend to vote in November. Given the fact that survey data on vote intentions often over-report turnout intention, it is quite possible that participation will be far lower among our youngest cohort of voting-aged Americans. The electoral implications could be significant and help swing the nation back to Trump for another four years.

============

Samuel J. Abrams is professor of politics at Sarah Lawrence College and a visiting fellow at the American Enterprise Institute.

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Just now, moonbat said:

Sam Abrams doing his best to keep flagging hopes up.

Why don't you stop being a douche and actually try to refute the professor's observations? He gives you all sorts of data to pull apart, as well as his personal observations from the students he deals with on a daily basis. 

 

But you know better, right? 

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2 mins ago, flyangler said:

Why don't you stop being a douche and actually try to refute the professor's observations? He gives you all sorts of data to pull apart, as well as his personal observations from the students he deals with on a daily basis. 

 

But you know better, right? 

We know this professor is liberal how?

 

Anyway, If all sorts of demographic groups don't show up there may be trouble- for either candidate.

 

Do you not think this is factored in to the national and state by state polls?

 

If you believe the polls are fraudulent, then this article will give you hope. 

 

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42 mins ago, moonbat said:

Sam Abrams doing his best to keep flagging hopes up.

A "Fellow" to you son.....................and an eyeing opening article too at that.............When's the last time you had a great Gen Z showing at the booth moonie??  :howdy:

 

 

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I feel like Trump lost a healthy percentage of seniors and suburban women who voted for him last time around. Not sure the Dems need GenZ to win but I also think they will finally come out and vote. Unlike in the past the younger generations actually seem interested in politics. What I thought would be very close race a few months ago now looks more and more like a slaughter.....

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14 mins ago, Tailslap said:

I feel like Trump lost a healthy percentage of seniors and suburban women who voted for him last time around. Not sure the Dems need GenZ to win but I also think they will finally come out and vote. Unlike in the past the younger generations actually seem interested in politics. What I thought would be very close race a few months ago now looks more and more like a slaughter.....

What's your measuring stick for this assumption?

 

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Trump has to get demeadia on his side....half the American public is so misinformed and they still haven't voted yet ......can he do something in n y and deblasios mess? He can't just spew his mouth off....did trump call for a town meeting with Biden in Philly ....a debate is not going to work so just have at it,loud talking,the whole c h I t.they both are  listening to polls and both know there are discrepencies....gen z want free college free healthcare with no strings attatched....perhaps meaning jobs would get their attention 

Edited by Surf bomber

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8 mins ago, yogiiiboy said:

What's your measuring stick for this assumption?

 

Just calling it like I see it. Same as you. I am sure one of us will be right. 

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It's fairly traditional for the voting baby class to not turn out

at this age their main interest is saying "up yours" to their parents, and rioting and virtue signaling is how they do it... not by voting.

They view their parents in simplistic black and white... "you made these problems... and its so easy fix them... all you do is just <fill in the blank with various forms of unicorn fart>

 

 

 

They get serious about voting when life kicks their butts... either by being a BS is debt with no job, or by being creative and productive and having it confiscated.

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1 hour ago, Tailslap said:

Just calling it like I see it. Same as you. I am sure one of us will be right. 

What’s  your take on “mail-in” ballots there slick?

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2 mins ago, yogiiiboy said:

What’s  your take on “mail-in” ballots there slick?

I would rather no mail in voting personally but during a pandemic I can see why people want it. Hopefully back to normal voting post pandemic. 

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2 hours ago, flyangler said:

What have we here? A liberal professor of politics at a liberal school talks to students and wonders aloud whether the turnout next month by Gen Z is over-stated, maybe materially so. 

 

Read the following and add to it the distanced that Harris-Biden are trying to put between themselves and the GND. 

 

The only poll that matters is the one that logs actual votes. So much enthusiasm is supposedly displayed by young people in the public polls, but what if that is a mirage and the Dems have miscalculated? 

 

Don't Assume Gen Z Will Show Up

As the November presidential election approaches, stories abound showing overwhelming support among Generation Z for former Vice President Joe Biden over President Trump, with claims like “Young voters backing Biden by 2-to-1 margin.”

 

While many may assume widespread electoral support for Biden among younger voters is a fait accompli, a surprising number of Gen Z voters may have already chosen to opt out of voting come November.

 

The idea that these voters would essentially “stay home” on Election Day is counterintuitive, given their heightened interest in our polarized times, but my ideas changed once the fall school year reopened and I had a chance to speak with scores of students around the country. Their stories were consistent: Gen Zers were having trouble accepting Joe Biden as their candidate of choice and staying home and opting out was appealing to them. Despite my comments that this could lead to a second Trump term, students consistently said that Biden did not inspire them. New survey data suggests that Gen Z’s turnout may be overstated. Politicos should take note.

 

First, the fall youth poll from Harvard’s Institute of Politics finds a significant enthusiasm gap between the candidates: 56% of America’s 18-to-29-year-old likely voters who support Trump are "very enthusiastic" about voting for him. This stands in stark contrast to just 35% of likely voters who back Biden. Those in Gen Z are generally not excited about the Democratic nominee and tell me that they were deflated when more progressive candidates dropped out of the race. Such low levels of enthusiasm may not translate to actually casting a ballot.

 

Second, as the American Enterprise Institute’s new “Socially Distant: How Our Divided Social Networks Explain Our Politics” survey reveals, just 7% of Gen Zers have a very favorable view of Biden while another 40% have a favorable view – making for a 47% overall favorability rating. While this is appreciably higher than Trump’s 20% favorability rating, it is anything but a landslide of support from younger Americans for Biden. My students regularly share the fact that they have trouble getting behind Biden given his  history of inappropriately touching women and his less than consistent left-of-center positions. This fact, along with the Harvard enthusiasm data, again suggests that the drive to vote for Biden may indeed be lower than many narratives assert; candidates need to inspire voters to drive turnout.

 

Relatedly, the survey asks if it has been easy or hard to make a decision about who to vote for this year (2020). Given the polarized climate and the overall disdain for the Trump administration among young people, one would think that making a decision about voting in a few weeks should be fairly easy. However, 30% of Gen Zers and Millennials state that their decision was hard – this is significantly higher than their parents (21%) and grandparents (14% for Boomers and 10% of Silents) – and again provides a hint of evidence that Gen Zers may opt out of voting entirely.

 

Going further, when asked who they’d vote for if the election were held today, Gen Z is not uniformly in support of Biden: 57% would vote for Biden and 18% for Trump. But 6% state someone else and another 19% say that they will sit this election out. And compared to the older cohorts, this intention to sit out is very different: Just 8% of Gen Xers and 5% of Boomers do not intend to vote.

 

Moreover, when asked about how certain they are about their choice, those in Gen Z are less certain compared to older cohorts. Just 51% of those in Gen Z state that they are absolutely certain that they will vote in the 2020 election; this shows that Biden’s support in large numbers is not assured. In contrast, 71% of those in Gen X and 80% of the Boomers state that they are absolutely certain that they will vote.

 

Finally, the survey data makes it clear that those in Gen Z are politically engaged, but not necessarily with the election. Two-thirds (67%) have been following the election fairly or very closely, notably lower than the 88% who have been paying attention to the COVID-19 pandemic and the 80% who are following the BLM protests. Gen Zers are not ignoring current events, but they may be increasingly disinterested in the election itself.

 

Collectively, these data points confirm a story that my students have been sharing with me for the past month: Do not assume that Gen Zers will vote this fall. Excitement for Biden is low and large numbers of Gen Zers already report that they do not intend to vote in November. Given the fact that survey data on vote intentions often over-report turnout intention, it is quite possible that participation will be far lower among our youngest cohort of voting-aged Americans. The electoral implications could be significant and help swing the nation back to Trump for another four years.

============

Samuel J. Abrams is professor of politics at Sarah Lawrence College and a visiting fellow at the American Enterprise Institute.

they're all going to vote by mail 3 days after the election

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8 mins ago, Tailslap said:

I would rather no mail in voting personally but during a pandemic I can see why people want it. Hopefully back to normal voting post pandemic. 

I already voted.  Requested a ballot.  Received it at my house.  Filled it out while having coffee at the kitchen table.  Dropped it off in the drop box at the courthouse.  Done.

 

Election day at the polls is tradition - like opening day of trout season - some people love the social aspect of the thing.  But it probably is not the most effective way of getting the majority of your population to vote.

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