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Teddy

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As if the surf from Paulette wasn't bad enough. With Hurricane Teddy seeming to be heading toward down east Maine we are looking at even bigger surf. If that storm gets nudged closer by the high pressure it could be epic surf. Stay safe folks...

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Posted (edited) · Report post

Seems to be a bit of a split between several models on just what Teddy will do. Most models take the storm east of the GOM, possibly hitting Nova Scotia. At the moment, this is the official forecast.

210009_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png.c82ae6e82284844c3cbf1c9cfebd1da8.png

 

An outlier model is the EURO. Which moves the storm north faster and so it ends up further west. **Should be noted that the EURO has been absolutely terrible red hot stinking garbage, with tropical systems this season.

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Update: the above gif is a little old. Most recent EURO is out and shows a shift to the east, closer in line with other models. Notice the clustering has shifted from the GOM to Nova Scotia 

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Regardless of whether Teddy goes east or west, methinks waves on exposed coastlines are going to be substantial. At a minimum. 

 

Worst case is Teddy gets into the GOM and the surf goes from fishable to ridiculous to nutty.

Screenshot_20200917-180920_Twitter.jpg.f7666ed9244958fc65455640417cf180.jpg

 

Personally, I'm on board with the solutions much farther east. The number of storms that have hit Bermuda ...then recurved allll the way back west to hit New England are a grand total of... 1.

I'm putting my chips on history.

Edited by rst3

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The latest.

Screenshot_20200918-040625_Twitter.jpg.ffe036be0b734db1a68e27626bce19f0.jpg

Current consensus is Ted passes by roughly 300 miles east. Storm will be deteriorating fast after it comes north of the gulf stream, but it will be large. That, plus the pressure gradient between the Hurricane and high pressure will mean a sizable wind field, and large waves.

Screenshot_20200918-041607_Twitter.jpg.756ee10f3a93a77c4d5c563abdd02cce.jpg

 

Not the best time out at George's 

Screenshot_20200918-041317_Chrome.jpg.a691f62dc6d447831145fc39d7675c87.jpg

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The models have settled on a Nova Scotia and/or Newfoundland landfall. Storm will bypass New England hundreds of miles east.

Screenshot_20200919-160816_Twitter.jpg.87262833bbec968f852110beecf38d5c.jpg

 

Impacts to New England

 

Swells.

Screenshot_20200919-160839_Twitter.jpg.6fb1453ea0c6e002305fd321d3641841.jpg

 

High Surf Advisories.

Small craft everywhere except bays. Also gale warning from ACK Sound south and east

Screenshot_20200919-160948_Twitter.jpg.eabdf7f2b2205fcb373ff7b8aab826df.jpg

 

Winds increase to east, Mon/Tues 

Screenshot_20200919-160905_Twitter.jpg.88048855c95f75ee467ad907d6478d5f.jpg

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Me hopes for good fishing after all this goes away and the water clears up. Thursday Friday and Saturday. Years ago this weekend coming was the big fish time. Last year same time only fish to 26”. No big fish. ? 

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rst3 thank you for the explanation and putting up the map the way you do so well about this storm . It does make for a much better understanding of what is about to occur around here . Most times the better fishing would be just before it happens and at the very beginning. I have had some great fishing experiences  just inside the big river under similar weather conditions over the years fishing while the water was surging in from the bay, but the fish were staying just ahead of the surge and had there mouths open big time on Bait

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Posted (edited) · Report post

What is the deal with storm generated swells - what direction of coastlines should be affected the most/the least? It would take swells coming in from a southerly direction to spoil the area I fish

Edited by albacized

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Posted (edited) · Report post

The swells will initially be coming into the South Coast of New England from the SE and ESE.

Screenshot_20200921-194646_Windy.jpg.221ae80ff90f560c217ae361b6cd5748.jpg

 

They seem to escape the brunt of it. Swells along RI and MA south coast will range from 3 to 8 ft.

20200921_194119.jpg.7b55baba02cbb018872dee197fd4ef1f.jpg

 

Swells and waves impacting the east face of NE will be much bigger. Up to 14ft in a few areas 

Screenshot_20200921-195446_Windy.jpg.aab1aabdcaeade6c5b441a59d1bc3727.jpg

Edited by rst3

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Posted (edited) · Report post

Final Teddy Forecast

 

Yes, fishing storm conditions in the Fall can be great.

 

> Or it can suck. 

 

1) Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday will feature high-energy, long period swells impacting coastal New England.

Screenshot_20200922-000526_Chrome.jpg.b401fdb92ac23a2a917c0a295c55d3cd.jpg

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2) The tides themselves are very high. Two days after the highest tide of the month.

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3) The worst conditions will be late afternoon through overnight.

 

$ - I think it goes without saying that 10-15ft grave•makers, big tides, and rocks at night are not an uh, ideal mix.

Screenshot_20200922-012351_Windy.jpg.762b823a13e0a20af89a78ab260b4a7b.jpg

 

4) We're not surfing. 

Imo, these are surfing waves -- not fishing waves. At least for a decent swath of New England. 

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***

Final forecast from the NWS.

 

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2) The storm is 350-400mi away. Normally we wouldnt get any wind at that distance, but Teddy-the-Low-Pressure is butting up against a very strong 1030mb Canadian High. Big pressure differential. The opposite flow aound each also enhances winds.

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***

If you're going out tonight, please be reasonable and conservative in your spot choices. Consider backsides, estuaries, etc.. Don't have to fish Beavertail in sneakers at midnight with 8 ft breakers to catch striped bass.

Edited by rst3

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