DragonsLax48

Fall Prediction

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Its nearly mid August and I've been travelling a little bit in search of big bass. I've come up empty handed in the XL department so naturally i am planning and gearing towards my Fall approach.

 

A few observations... 

Water temps feel warmer than usual in NJ. Maybe someone can add a link to confirm this observation.

Water temps up north have felt warmer than they did last year.

Currents earlier in the holdover season are weaker than the past few years. 

Pelagics showing up earlier and earlier over the past few summers.

The biomass are not in the canal and I believe they are offshore

We have a ton of bait including: sandeels, 1-2" rainbait, peanuts, adult bunker, and mullet and begun to show early. 

Lots of holdovers have stuck around this year and they seem larger than the past couple of years on average.

Heavy currents in late summer and early fall

 

My forecast for the Fall: we will finally break this 3 year rat plague and see some larger fish push in and stick around for a bit. 

 

Cane season will dictate how much bait is around come migration time. 

 

Let me know if you agree or disagree below. My opinion is worth about as much as the smelly eel rag in my bait cooler so take these observations and forecasts with a grain of sand. 

 

 

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Posted (edited) · Report post

Like where your heads out DragonLax. I think the season will start very late as it typically has the last few years with the first real bite not until the October 20s. As you said, mother nature will dictate how long bites last, or if they even get started. I remember in 2018, I had a really good bite on October 23. really was the 1st one of the season that year. A couple days later a soaking, flooding Noreaster hit and it really sort of destroyed the next 2 to 3 weeks. My hope is we have a repeat of 2016 when we had some great shallow water back bay bites. Those were solid fish..not huge, but 27-32s for several days.

 

Albies, we are due because last year was very dissapointing. I think theres been so much great activity with bluefin and yellowfin, spanish macs, that the albis will hopefully follow suite and come join the party in close.

Edited by joefishnj21

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I would be optimistic but for three things, beaches are really flat at the moment; think we will have an active tropical season; bait is already on the move & might be out of here before the water cools 

 

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I predict, with 100% certainty, that the water will be wet and some people will catch fish and some won't!  Check back with me in December to see if I called it.

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2 hours ago, nam1969 said:

I predict, with 100% certainty, that the water will be wet and some people will catch fish and some won't!  Check back with me in December to see if I called it.

December?? I’m just getting started. Best month of the year for us NJ guys. 

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7 hours ago, libertyminded said:

I predict a great Albie season with all the  rain bait, and hopefully not any spot burning As in which part of a certain county and all like that and all...

The bait is setup. The concern is the hurricane prediction season. My feeling is we got blown out last year with back to back NOreasters. And consistent NE winds.  
 

8 hours ago, DragonsLax48 said:

Its nearly mid August and I've been travelling a little bit in search of big bass. I've come up empty handed in the XL department so naturally i am planning and gearing towards my Fall approach.

 

A few observations... 

Water temps feel warmer than usual in NJ. Maybe someone can add a link to confirm this observation.

Water temps up north have felt warmer than they did last year.

Currents earlier in the holdover season are weaker than the past few years. 

Pelagics showing up earlier and earlier over the past few summers.

The biomass are not in the canal and I believe they are offshore

We have a ton of bait including: sandeels, 1-2" rainbait, peanuts, adult bunker, and mullet and begun to show early. 

Lots of holdovers have stuck around this year and they seem larger than the past couple of years on average.

Heavy currents in late summer and early fall

 

My forecast for the Fall: we will finally break this 3 year rat plague and see some larger fish push in and stick around for a bit. 

 

Cane season will dictate how much bait is around come migration time. 

 

Let me know if you agree or disagree below. My opinion is worth about as much as the smelly eel rag in my bait cooler so take these observations and forecasts with a grain of sand. 

 

 

good write up and summary.  Bait never seems to be a problem around here.   We seem to always have bait it seems. The storms seem to push it out.  
 Let’s hope for west winds for two months.  That’s what I’m hoping for. 
 

 

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I predict if we get sand eels we will have a night surf fishing bite, not much faith in big fish, but the sand eels could keep things interesting. And bluefish, who ever knows, some years steady action, others nada.

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My prediction:  I hope the weather, bait and fish cooperate because I sure as hell will be there !  And if the weather is brutal, the bait and fish don’t show up, I will still be there.  Face it guys we have an addiction just buy more plugs and fish.

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Posted (edited) · Report post

My prediction is that most of the guys that can't catch most of the fish in Spring still wont catch most of the fish in the fall. It will make for the same conversation though.:howdy:

Edited by SIC34
Sp

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Guess its worth keeping an eye on the track of Josephine, the latest potential hurricane now down in the eastern Caribbean. hopefully it stays out to sea.

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13 hours ago, blind squirl said:

December?? I’m just getting started. Best month of the year for us NJ guys. 

Quiet Squirl. Don't give it away. Most of the guys by then are out killing Bambi or are in couch potato football trances!

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12 hours ago, Highlander1 said:

I predict if we get sand eels we will have a night surf fishing bite, not much faith in big fish, but the sand eels could keep things interesting. And bluefish, who ever knows, some years steady action, others nada.

The sand eels definitely make things interesting but I have a hard time finding bigger fish patterns on the smaller bait. I think back to 2015 and 2016 when the beaches were loaded with pnut and adult bunker with gators and big bass hot on their tail.

 

right? @Goldy

 

West winds and bunker :bigeyes:

 

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8 mins ago, DragonsLax48 said:

The sand eels definitely make things interesting but I have a hard time finding bigger fish patterns on the smaller bait. I think back to 2015 and 2016 when the beaches were loaded with pnut and adult bunker with gators and big bass hot on their tail.

 

right? @Goldy

 

West winds and bunker :bigeyes:

 

The peanut blitzes were going on before i moved to moco and started surf fishing. Any idea what conditions allowed for them to stay tight to the beach? Seems like past few falls they dont stick around and head straight out.

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