Cliff Huxtable

Biden leads Trump in Wisconsin and two other battleground states

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Could this be bad news for Camp Trump?

 

https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/2020/08/10/biden-leads-trump-wisconsin-new-poll-says/3333514001/

 

Democrat Joe Biden led GOP President Donald Trump in Wisconsin and two other battleground states in a poll released Monday by the University of Wisconsin-Madison.

Biden was ahead of Trump 49% to 43% in Wisconsin, 47% to 43% in Michigan and 50% to 41% in Pennsylvania, according to the survey by UW-Madison’s Elections Research Center.

Trump won all three states in 2016, when Democrats wrongly presumed they provided a “blue wall” that would go to Hillary Clinton.

The poll came out just as one was released by CBS and online polling firm YouGov that showed similar results. In that survey, Biden led Trump 48% to 42% in Wisconsin and 49% to 43% in Pennsylvania. (That poll did not include Michigan.)

On Tuesday, Marquette University Law School will release its latest poll of how the presidential candidates are faring in Wisconsin.

The UW-Madison poll was conducted July 27 to Aug. 6 by YouGov in conjunction with the Wisconsin State Journal. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points. YouGov conducted online interviews with registered voters from an opt-in panel, which was weighted for gender, age, race and education level.

Among registered voters who said they were certain to vote, Biden did even better. He led 52% to 44% in Wisconsin, 50% to 45% in Michigan and 52% to 42% in Pennsylvania.

In the three states, 55% of voters said they were more concerned about how the coronavirus pandemic was affecting people’s health than the economy, while 45% said they were more concerned about the economy. Those who worried more about health tended to support Biden while those who worried more about the economy tended to support Trump.

Asked who they blamed for the virus, 41% said Trump, 35% said China and 13% said another entity.

Fifty-six percent of respondents in Wisconsin said they were dissatisfied with Trump’s handling of the protests over George Floyd, the Black man in Minneapolis who died after a white police officer kneeled on his neck.

Biden fared well among younger and better educated voters, the poll found. Trump did better with older voters and those will less education. White voters were nearly evenly split over the two candidates, while Black voters supported Biden by a lopsided margin (83% to 7%).

Trump had an advantage with men, while Biden had a much bigger advantage with women. In Wisconsin, Trump led men by 8 points (52% to 44%), but Biden led women by 19 points (54% to 35%).

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I live in Pa. and I can tell you the silent majority is alive and well, and growing. Normal people are afraid to speak out about their voting choices for fear of physical retribution. My boss showed me pictures of his grandfathers tailor shop this morning. Has been in the same location for 35 years in what has become an inner-city neighborhood. The front of his store was spray painted with BLM all over it. He is afraid to go out and remove it in fear that he'll be attacked. He doesn't disagree with BLM, but doesn't support them either and doesn't want the front of his shop that he works hard for to be vandalized. How do you think acts like that are going to affect the voting public in the next few months?

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6 mins ago, ihocky2 said:

I live in Pa. and I can tell you the silent majority is alive and well, and growing. Normal people are afraid to speak out about their voting choices for fear of physical retribution. My boss showed me pictures of his grandfathers tailor shop this morning. Has been in the same location for 35 years in what has become an inner-city neighborhood. The front of his store was spray painted with BLM all over it. He is afraid to go out and remove it in fear that he'll be attacked. He doesn't disagree with BLM, but doesn't support them either and doesn't want the front of his shop that he works hard for to be vandalized. How do you think acts like that are going to affect the voting public in the next few months?

I agree with you that BLM is a nightmare right now for Dems.

There is no rational way to dispute that.

But that is just one slice of the whole pie.

 

 

 

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Posted (edited) · Report post

11 mins ago, ihocky2 said:

He doesn't disagree with BLM

 

At this point?   Then he deserved it

Edited by 55555s

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3 mins ago, Cliff Huxtable said:

But that is just one slice of the whole pie.

 

Yep.  And that slice is below,  on the right side, not the left...

Screen Shot 2020-08-10 at 10.39.19 PM.png

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7 mins ago, flyangler said:

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https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2020/08/10/new_arizona_poll_shows_trump_inching_ahead_of_biden_143927.html

 

As the White House struggles to contain the pandemic, the electoral map continues to favor Biden. At a Monday press conference, Trump expressed a strong belief that a vaccine would be in production before the end of the year. But that wish is up against a persistent virus and the accompanying recession.

Trump now trails Biden by 6.9 points in the RCP national average, compared to a 7.7-point deficit against Clinton at this time in 2016. “I'm not a big believer in polls,” he added in the White House briefing room. “If I was, I guess I wouldn't be standing here right now.”

 

 

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43 mins ago, 55555s said:

 

Yep.  And that slice is below,  on the right side, not the left...

Screen Shot 2020-08-10 at 10.39.19 PM.png

Yup.

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All of you people are intelligent adults.  Even the Libs.

 

There's no way, NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO WAY! that any of you, even the Libs believe a single thing that any poll has to say about any thing, any time, any where, right?

 

There's no way that any of you could be that dumb.  Believe a political poll?  Come on man.

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Posted (edited) · Report post

2 hours ago, JoeyZac said:

All of you people are intelligent adults.  Even the Libs.

 

There's no way, NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO WAY! that any of you, even the Libs believe a single thing that any poll has to say about any thing, any time, any where, right?

 

There's no way that any of you could be that dumb.  Believe a political poll?  Come on man.

Joey, you are exactly correct, the polls are useless now and I think they will be nearly useless two months from now. Trends might be meaningful, but absolute results are not to be trusted. I had those charts from another polls thread started by another liberal so though I would cast them at Cliffie. 
 

My philosophy on polls this cycle is that the Trump vote will be undercounted more than it was in 2016. We all know "shy Trump voters" and we know how many there are that are not being picked up by pollsters. Gami tried to suggest there are many silent Biden voters but I don’t buy it. He claims that up in his area, there are so many strong Trump supporters that Biden voters need to keep a low profile. Perhaps, on a hyper local basis, but not widespread. 
 

Donna Brazil, a savvy Dem strategist, said today on Fox that she expects the polls to tighten. She knows how the Media plays the polls, and plays with the polls, and how their methodology has to get tighter as the election approaches. She knows that the Covid numbers are improving, that the economy will be recovering by October. And she knows that concerns about law and order and public safety will not a true to Biden's benefit.

 

The comeback is afoot. 
 

 

 

Edited by flyangler

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2 hours ago, Jetty Jumper said:

Biden has this election in the bag.

Too many Libs, here and in DEMedia, trying to convince someone of that. Question is, convince themselves or everyone else?

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