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Ebbtide231

How's the Montauk economy doing?

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It would be a big burden on the local districts if they registered for the schools out there.

 

On the other hand, probably 98%+ of that crowd's kids have been going to private school all along.  They tend to believe that if you don't go to a $25,000 kindergarten, you'll never get into Harvard.

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I’m pretty sure richie rich is gonna decide they don’t like it out of the city full time. NYC will forever be an industrial mecca. I guarantee there are start-ups already figuring out how to take advantage of the lowered office rents in Midtown. The rents will still raise by 3+% a year and it’ll be back where it was eventually.  


It’s white flight (only not everyone is white anymore). It’s happened here many times. My wife’s family is from Flatbush Brooklyn. All Irish. They all ran to the island in the 70/80s because the neighborhood got too dangerous. Well here in Ditmas Park Brooklyn (part of Flatbush) two units in my co-op building just sold — 2br for 725k and a 4br for 1.09m. 10 years ago these apartments were 250k. If my building can be used as a sample, there are people still digging in here. Its a cycle, just like everything else.

 

Some people will move out there, eventually shed their city skin, and become locals. Some will not like the slow pace, the lack of some services, and come back. 
Hopefully the ultrawealthy who bought houses all over the tristate area with all cash, 30% over ask, and no inspection didn’t set a new standard. A run down house in Kingston should not be 400k. Only time will tell. 

Edited by chuckbucktail

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2 hours ago, chuckbucktail said:

I’m pretty sure richie rich is gonna decide they don’t like it out of the city full time. NYC will forever be an industrial mecca. I guarantee there are starts up already figuring out how to take advantage of the lowered office rents in Midtown. The rents will still raise by 3+% a year and it’ll be back where it was eventually.  


It’s white flight (only not everyone is white anymore). It’s happened here many times. My wife’s family is from Flatbush Brooklyn. All Irish. They all ran to the island in the 70/80s because the neighborhood got too dangerous. Well here in Ditmas Park Brooklyn (part of Flatbush) two units in my co-op building just sold — 2br for 725k and a 4br for 1.09m. 10 years ago these apartments were 250k. If my building can be used as a sample, there are people still digging in here. Its a cycle, just like everything else.

 

Some people will move out there, eventually shed their city skin, and become locals. Some will not like the slow pace, the lack of some services, and come back. 
Hopefully the ultrawealthy who bought houses all over the tristate area with all cash, 30% over ask, and no inspection didn’t set a new standard. A run down house in Kingston should not be 400k. Only time will tell. 

Technology is a game changer. NYC was always a balance of quality of life and commute. I worked 70+ hours a week but lived 10 mins from my office so I dealt with the NYC income tax, 5am dog walk, $400 per month parking for a $5k car, tight space, high expense for everything etc... and on Saturday I really didn’t feel like going to a museum or a 3 hour sit down dinner. I want to get out of the city.   
If you could work from home in a much large space, see the kids before they go to bed at 8pm, free parking, backyard for the dog, decent public school, no NYC income tax (and potentially no NYS) in a safe neighborhood, why would you ever move back? 
And if you’re a NYC landlord with a surge in empty apartments and higher tax/utility/insurance/labor costs to meet, why would you not consider renting to the city for affordable housing?   It becomes a vicious downward cycle and it has happened before but the need to come to work at corporate HQ was always the constant. 
 

I work from home in Montauk and I love it. My desk looks out over the ocean and my families’ quality of live (and mine) has never been better.  Wish I could get a tee time but otherwise, it’s all good.   
 

ive been in the office neck deep in work when the wife called about some nonsense, it’s the most frustrating thing. I really don’t need to hear about protests and parks being inaccessible to kids because of homeless or vagrancy, crime going unchecked (and it is) blah blah blah. Look at Seattle today, it’s worse then Detroit ever was.  

Edited by blastwater

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BTW, Montauk’s economy is not exactly thriving but business here are thinking outside of the box and are not only adapting but being creative.  Being a seasonal economy catering to people with money to burn certainly helps. Covid really hurt with seasonal employees from overseas being unable to come to the US to work and short term housing for chefs and wait staff is non existent.  The supply chain disruption is also a big factor as people are unable to get bike parts, boating supplies, cheap beach crap etc. but the cost on most items is an afterthought so less sales is offset but higher margins (in theory)  plus Amazon delivery here takes a week longer  vs NYC or Westchester so either think ahead or pay the vig in town. 

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On 8/10/2020 at 11:04 PM, hydraman said:

Montauk has the busiest 7-11 in America what does that tell you. It’s not the same but you can make It what you want. Fall is still ok. A lot more restaurants in the last 10 years to accommodate all the influx of citydiots 

Yup! And Pete keeps collecting rent. 

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It will be interesting to see if the city folk keep moving out here, which I think will be the worst thing for the island. Bloomberg came out last week and said NYC/NYS is run/owned by 2000 people. Says if they all leave NY will fall. Kinda crazy to think that millions of people kinda all work for just those few..... I sincerely hope they all leave the state so that maybe one day I can afford a MTK property but I guess there's always the cape just that it's not MTK. 

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There's also a lot of doom and gloom being sold by the MSM, so we have to take that into account.

My take is that the upper echelon will tire of life in the sticks once the vaccine is out and the restaurants are safe again.

Winter is coming :)

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6 hours ago, RL Bucktails said:

How is that supermarket holding up out there?  I would imagine some serious shortages.

Zero shortages since the great toilet paper run of march 2020.

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My $.02......Disastrous start. People have been out here since March. Restaurants are adapting and trying to make up for lost revenues. Nightlife is none existent, unless sitting down for a meal, so you see more people on beach, overlook etc.....where they would have been at a Montauket, Navy Beach having a beverage. Gas is expensive. Goldbergs bagels still stink. Sharks are eating fish off the beach. Fluke Fishing Sucks.  School enrollments are up. Principal says kids will be going to school 5 days a week (I don't think it will last) Old saying "August People Suck" still holds true. Everybody is mad at everyone else who has a different outlook on life. Ticks haven't been so bad. Thongs are still a thing. Waves haven't been great. Last week seemed to be a lull in tourists (I found parking at beach). Great Tuna bite offshore. That about sums up 2020......Oh we got another Dog!

Cheers,

Mike

Edited by mikemontauk
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