flyangler

HAS BIDEN PEAKED? HAS TRUMP BOTTOMED? BOTH?

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Has Biden peaked? Are his public appearances and policy discussions started to be noticed by heretofore uninterested voters?

 

Is the worst behind Trump? 
 

Where is the Joementum? 
 

I have made clear how I feel about head-to-head polls during the summer but so much has been made of them by others here, as well as the DEMedia, it is worth asking the above, plus:

 

Has Biden peaked? 

Has Anti-Trump fervor peaked? 
For some of those polled, are they transitioning from using presidential preference polls for expressing their disappointment with Trump to now actually indicating how they will vote? 
Will Trump's trends in the head-to-head polls reflect the trends in his national approval polls? 

Battleground States and National below. The state-level polls are more important. I included the list of polls which RCP provides. You will note that unlike national approval polls with multiple weekly additions, state-level polls occur far less frequently and some of these averages are using polls from 5-6 weeks ago.

 

Note they the Margin of Error across most of these polls, N=900 to N=1,200, will be in the 3.0-4.0% range. Given the "Silent Trump Voter" factor, Trump is probably scoring 2-4% lower than what he will draw at the voting booth. That was the case in 2016 and will be as much or a bigger factor this year. 

 

 

FIRST, NATIONAL APPROVAL WHERE TRUMP HAS PUT IN A BOTTOM AND IS NOW RECOVERING. 

 

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COMING OFF THE BOTTOM IN FLORIDA 

 

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NC, BIDEN INSIDE THE MoE

 

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PA: BIDEN OUTSIDE THE MoE, BUT TWO OF THE FIVE POLLS ARE THE REASON FOR THAT. ONE OF THOSE TWO HAS A VERY HIGH MoE OF 5.5% BASED ON N<700. AVERAGE OF OTHER THREE POLLS ARE INDER 3.3%. 

 

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MI - BIGGEST MARGIN FOR BIDEN EXCEPT THWT MARGIN HAS BEEN LOWER ON MOST RECENT POLLS. IN LAST THREE, TRUMP HAS RISEN A COUPLE PERCENT WHILE BIDEN HAS LOST ABOUT THE SAME. THAT SAID, THIS IS A TOUCH ATATE FOR TRUMP. 

 

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AZ, GAP NARROWING AND NOW INSIDE THE MoE. BOTH HAVE BEEN RISING SO "UNSURE" VOTERS ARE PICKING SIDES 

 

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ANOTHER TOUGH STATE FOR TRUMP, BUT ALSO THE MOST UNDER-POLLED OF THESE STATES THE SPIKE IN TRUMP'S GRAPH IS LIKLEY DUE TO A POLL OR TWO ROLLING OFF THAT HAD BIDEN LEADING BY A VERY WIDE MARGIN. 

 

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NATIONAL GENERAL ELECTION POLL, THE MOST USELESS OF POLLS. BIDEN WELL OUTSIDE THE MoE, BUT THE GAP IS NARROWING. THIS GRAPH WILL MOST LIKELY FOLLOW TRUMP'S GENERAL APPROVAL POLL UP TO THE ELECTION. 
 

BTW, WITH NO THIRD PARTY CANDIDATES THIS TIME, THE NATIONAL POLLS ONLY ADD UP TO 92%, MEANING 8% DID NOT DECLARE A PREFERENCE. WHAT'S UP WITH THOSE POLLED?
 

ARE THEY REALLY NON-VOTERS?
 

WILL THEY BE LATE DECIDERS? HOW MIGHT THEY BREAK? 

 

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Biden's peak was 25 years ago.

So, yes, he has peaked.

 

Trump still has lots of rough seas ahead. The Democrats are not done throwing sand in his gears, and won't roll over, and give up.

I bet they have more dirty tricks up their sleeves in the next 90 days.

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Its all a mirage for the media show.  No minds are changing.  The media just needs a horse race and is desperate to do anything to help Biden.  Their efforts are unsuccessful.  You either like Trump or you haaaaaaaaate him and there is no in-between.

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That could be the case (Biden peaked)...for a while, all the polls showed Biden with significant leads. Now some polls show the same while others show Trump closing the gap....But to be honest, my interest in the polls have more to do with watching various reactions vs how I think it actually frames the race

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It's not just Biden, but the Dems have peaked as a whole. Between Basement Joe, Dems failing to denounce the riots, or even call them riots, and now the chance of adding Kamala in. They didn't like her to start with, now the chance of her being President will scare many of the voters. 

 

Not many that were voting for Trump will turn away. They are not blindly faithful, they are just terrified of what the Democrats have in store for the government. The rabid left wing Dems are not going to vote for Trump. The people in the middle are the ones who will move the polls. Many of them are afraid of the riots, afraid of the highway blockages, afraid of a visible political puppet, and afraid of the shadow games the DNC is playing with the VP role to become President. They will either turn to Trump or will just stay home on election day.

 

The DNC reminds me of the early scene in Star Wars were Leia says to Grand Moff Tarkin "The more the Empire tightens it's grasp, the more systems slip through their fingers". Same thing is happening. The more the Dems try to force themselves into control the more voters they turn away. 

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14 mins ago, dena said:

Biden's peak was 25 years ago.

So, yes, he has peaked.

 

Trump still has lots of rough seas ahead. The Democrats are not done throwing sand in his gears, and won't roll over, and give up.

I bet they have more dirty tricks up their sleeves in the next 90 days.

There is still talk of the House Dems trying to launch another impeachment effort when they return from their summer break. How lame will the optics be on that with social distancing and masks? 
 

But one has to wonder, what else might the Left have to throw at Trump? We saw the kitchen sink fly already, so what else could they have? The actual Russian pee tape?
 

As for October surprises, I think the Right might have a couple of their own. Investigation results? 
 

8 mins ago, mako capt said:

Its all a mirage for the media show.  No minds are changing.  The media just needs a horse race and is desperate to do anything to help Biden.  Their efforts are unsuccessful.  You either like Trump or you haaaaaaaaate him and there is no in-between.

Yes, viewer manipulation. I have mentioned elsewhere that Americans love the underdog and the comeback story. I have argued that Trump is in the midst of such a comeback and seems to relish the role of the underdog.

 

I DO NOT believe the DEMedia is trying to orchestrate a Trump blip just to knock him down again, and have Biden be "the comeback kid". I don’t believe that they believe that Biden is a natural winner and could recover from a loss of momentum. 

 

7 mins ago, albacized said:

That could be the case (Biden peaked)...for a while, all the polls showed Biden with significant leads. Now some polls show the same while others show Trump closing the gap....But to be honest, my interest in the polls have more to do with watching various reactions vs how I think it actually frames the race

I wonder if an effort was made to make Biden look like a winner (or at least competitive against Trump) just to stall any effort to continue the primaries and/or kill arguments of a contested convention and replacing Joe. Manipulated polling and the pandemic have locked the Dems into Biden where that was far from certain before Super Tuesday. 

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Between Epstein stuff being revealed and Durham indictments, the results of the election are a foregone conclusion. 

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@ihocky2 excellent comment and observations. Especially about the middle and those voters' fear of what the Dems would bring if in control.
 

You can see what Trump has done with his narrative of Biden. "Sleepy Joe" is mostly gone. Trump has hammered home that point, linguistic killshot, and it is in the public's mind now. For those willing to consider the possibility, they are now alert to signs that Biden is not 100% and every flub, gaffe and misstatement will reinforce the point. Trump can pull that one out every time there is a real public example but does not have to overuse that now.

 

Lately Trump has been talking about how far left Joe is or is being pulled. Trump is painting the image of Biden as puppet for far more left forces. For the political middle, this is important, possibly critical. 
 

For example, swing voters in Michigan recently said they will vote for President Trump in the November election because they believe Biden is a “puppet” who is “not mentally capable of being president.” They also said that they don’t watch Biden’s livestream events.
 

And the flub of the week by Biden, one that will be played over and over again in swing state commercials, is his response to a reporter in his first interaction with reporters in months. No notes, No thought, just Joe speaking off the top of his head, and likely had his handlers' teeth gnashing. Play this and then play it again and watch Joe and think about what is going on in his head as he formulates and answer. He has rolled up his notes and is speaking completely free, and say something that will cause hundreds of thousands of middle voters to turn against him. 
 

Also, how can NeverTrumpers hear that and say they will vote for Biden? How does anyone take The Lincoln Project people seriously when they hear Biden say that?  
 

 

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12 mins ago, dena said:

Bernie has been awful quiet since Super Tuesday.

It is like he dropped off Earth.

 

He’s been bought off. The agreement was he would demure, but be allowed to fund raise right up to "the end" so he could keep the donations after stepping aside. 

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4 mins ago, J said:

Between Epstein stuff being revealed and Durham indictments, the results of the election are a foregone conclusion. 

J, has your signature always mentioned "dolphin licking cat"? I nearly spit coffee at my iPad reading that. 

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47 mins ago, mako capt said:

You either like Trump or you haaaaaaaaate him and there is no in-between.

I’m in between.  I don’t love trump.  He’s the obvious better choice, but I’m not a big cheerleader of his.  I truly believe he loves this country and wants the best for it.  He just gives his enemies way to much fodder.

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1 min ago, Mummichog said:

I’m in between.  I don’t love trump.  He’s the obvious better choice, but I’m not a big cheerleader of his.  I truly believe he loves this country and wants the best for it.  He just gives his enemies way to much fodder.

Trump is an ignoramus, and you are right on the balance. Which is why he is likely to get more votes than his general approval rating. 

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Joementum? 

From Joe speaking at the virtual convention of the American Federation of Teachers, not even 250 viewers at the start of his comments. TEACHERS! The ultimate Dem cohort and no one cares about Joe nor his education policies. 
 

Now, I don’t think too many teachers need to be convinced to vote against Trump, but still, this is embarrassing. 
 

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As more of these happen....

 

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