rst3

Isaias

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Models are tightly clustered at the western edge of the guidance envelope. NHC track forecast (blue line, bigger blue dots) is further east than the models have been running. 

Screenshot_20200801-165016_Twitter.jpg.6b7bd796426a0065f3fa090b1c262020.jpg

 

Personally, I think track has more to do with rain impacts, now, than anything to do with wind.

 

A Connecticut/NY area track leaves the Cape a little shortchanged in the rain department. A Cape Cod track means more rain for CC

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Brief look at potential rain impacts.

 

As Isaias gains latitude, it will be coming north with the assistance of a trough to the west. One feature nearby will be the right entrance region to a jet streak:

 

map up at 30000ft

Screenshot_20200801-205412_Twitter.jpg.f1b5089c8b8b833c776f219dbed0083a.jpg

 

This will serve to enhance and focus the rainfall on the *west side of the storm.

20200801_210553.jpg.69f26c4152ece5288810c816e279b35e.jpg

 

West side rain is pretty common for tropical systems impacting the mid Atlantic and esp New England, as it is many times a trough that brings these storms right up the eastern seaboard.

 

Still unsold on Isaias being much more than a windy rainmaker here late Tuesday into Wednesday. If the storm manages to remain off the coast of Florida over the next 24 hours, there's likely to be a brief window as it heads north towards the Carolinas where it may pick up a little more steam, as shear is forecast to temporarily relax. 

 

After that though, current forecast is it plows over land across the Carolinas before zipping NNE, towards New England. No real chance of strengthening after landfall in the Carolinas.

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At this point Isaias is a mess. The mid-level center decoupled from the vertical stack and reformed "down shear" under a burst of thunderstorms. The low-level center continued west. 

ezgif-7-00743ac7b7cc.gif.028ab1eaac15f933ccd0c7d14511fbc5.gif

 

Without being vertically stacked, Isaias will find it nearly impossible to intensify in the short term. Moreover, a weaker storm should track a little farther west. The further west it gets, the more land it goes over, and further weakening could occur.

 

I seriously doubt we will see even moderate wind here in New England. Might not see any at all! For Christ's sake-- if the storm can't get its act together in the deep tropics, there simply won't be much coming north to begin with. 

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17 hours ago, bob_G said:

I want lots of rain. I'm watering my tomatoes twice daily in this heat.   Besides, I like rain.

From the tracks I saw now, you will not be getting much rain at all down your way, likely less than 0.5 inches.

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18 hours ago, bob_G said:

I want lots of rain. I'm watering my tomatoes twice daily in this heat.   Besides, I like rain.

Too much rain and they'll split............

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22 mins ago, unskunk said:

Too much rain and they'll split............

Yup.......unless they have had consistent watering up until now........

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Posted (edited) · Report post

Can see the effect of mid-level shear on the structure of Isaias in this 24hr loop from yesterday.

 

Roughly 25kts of shear impinge on the circulation, and blow the thunderstorms completely off the west side, exposing a naked vortex. 

savetweetvid_EeYEH6LUMAALsfK.gif.e63da157660464cdd184535f3d21db65.gif

On the down-shear eastern side, thunderstorms pulse and ebb.. and fail to wrap back around the core.

 

* If you look closely in the upper left corner of the gif, you can see a few frames where clouds in the mid-levels are streaming along within a shearing flow from the SW.

Edited by rst3

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"Game over, man. Game over!"

 

That's it. I've seen enough. Game over.

 

There's not going to be any tropical storm to fish in Tuesday night. 

 

• system is small, weak, shallow, and badly degraded off Florida

savetweetvid_EeXDbgMXkAA2l0o.gif.7211ad95b2b7d4d8d76008f6f19ec41a.gif

 

• updated official track takes Isaias north almost completely over land

Screenshot_20200802-104947_Twitter.jpg.44d7e6e6172efa883adc991c7bf2fae9.jpg

 

• updated official odds of winds greater than 38mph on Tuesday night have been lowered. Now only a 20-30% chance. (And I think that's being generous)

Screenshot_20200802-104854_Twitter.jpg.fb4332fc438161da6a9bda901df6d0d9.jpg

 

Isaias:

Screenshot_20200802-111604_Reddit.jpg.e192b8fc16176383e7aa0cc75de3123d.jpg

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Posted (edited) · Report post

2 hours ago, west tide said:

I thought “Bob” was coming though?

Maybe Boob.

Definitely not Bob.

 

Bob was the real deal. That's for sure. Small but potent, was an upper-end New England hurricane. Not '38 or anything, but probably a top 5 storm in last 100, 150 years.

 

Bob

Screenshot_20200802-125151_Chrome.jpg.0475b0754da3213cc02dbc43fa4dd83d.jpg

 

 

Menauhant Yauct Club Before Bob

1991_bob_before_menauhant_001.jpg.d165b87cc4a31da7e155c58b48a928e2.jpg

During Bob

1991_bob_after_menauhant_001.jpg.57b6ae519d6ddfd35cf245a3cdb117db.jpg

 

5f26f32914285_images(16).jpeg.e7dea6f51c784c7844857bcecc7c5dd4.jpegEP-160819701.jpg.70031e06a5b3e92a7a9f9c4727c48056.jpg

***

Boob

Screenshot_20200802-130108_Chrome.jpg.4cee47d7ad80fd9145ee0805d1b68bec.jpg

Edited by rst3
Wrong picture

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why the pics of Naragansett towers before the storm? I've seen pictures after the storm and Ocean Drive, the road in the picture, was covered in big boulders. The restaurant in the picture next to the towers called the coast guard house and they have a line almost up to the ceiling on one of the walls showing how high the water got at its peak.

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14 mins ago, MakoMike said:

why the pics of Naragansett towers before the storm? I've seen pictures after the storm and Ocean Drive, the road in the picture, was covered in big boulders. The restaurant in the picture next to the towers called the coast guard house and they have a line almost up to the ceiling on one of the walls showing how high the water got at its peak.

Good catch.. I blame the NWS! Nah. Quickly clipped a few pictures from the NWS site on Bob. Why they included that one I have no idea. As for me..sometimes it's tough to see image detail when you're half-fishing/half quick-posting, on a phone, in full sunlight.

 

 

 

Here's the photos you discussed btw

Screenshot_20200802-133823_Chrome.jpg.621d4e4825b6735b198bbd09adacbb40.jpgScreenshot_20200802-133805_Chrome.jpg.aeacc928a20a2af1a0a0f016e63c8e6a.jpgScreenshot_20200802-133740_Chrome.jpg.3d38b447e38515204c183a8fe5191d07.jpg

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