rst3

Isaias

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36 mins ago, bradW said:

it's 2020 so this thing is sure to blow up into something...

 

here is the events of the last 12 1/2 months at my job; gasoline truck rollover 12k gallons in the street, direct hit from a tornado, global pandemic, now this....it's bound to happen

That's the spirit. :p

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Guidance nudged west today. Here's the EURO ensemble. 

Screenshot_20200731-210947_Twitter.jpg.b7dabcd4bdcc42c69f208cbbc8b0afef.jpg

 

Shows a strong signal for a storm that rides up the coast -- either partially or totally over land.

 

The result of a track like that? for us, that would mean basically a gusty summertime rainstorm. I struggle to see how we could get any sort of real wind in this scenario.

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1 hour ago, SalmonAndStriper Stalker said:

hopefully it doesn't delay the bonito 

I think we'll be Aok. 

Consensus started building today on a westward track, mostly over land. In the atmosphere, mid-level shear looks high on the road ahead. There's some dry air nearby too. Taken together, the setup and track looks pretty darn poor for Isaias. 

 

I wouldn't be surprised if nothing more than a breezy tropical rainstorm zipped up the Hudson Valley. We get gusty rain. Sure it may still have a "name" when it gets up here, but for all intents just be a breezy tropical rainstorm. 

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Bummer about it being at best a short term wind event, at least for striper fishing, No guarantees with this stuff. Probably good news for tiny tunas in that it won't muddy the waters for days on end.  

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13 hours ago, rst3 said:

Guidance nudged west today. Here's the EURO ensemble. 

Screenshot_20200731-210947_Twitter.jpg.b7dabcd4bdcc42c69f208cbbc8b0afef.jpg

 

Shows a strong signal for a storm that rides up the coast -- either partially or totally over land.

 

The result of a track like that? for us, that would mean basically a gusty summertime rainstorm. I struggle to see how we could get any sort of real wind in this scenario.

What does the consensus say about which part of the state to fish as the barometer falls?

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1 min ago, bob_G said:

I want lots of rain. I'm watering my tomatoes twice daily in this heat.   Besides, I like rain.

If you have rhododendrons, don’t hesitate to water them as well. 

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It's already falling apart.

> In the Bahamas. 

savetweetvid_EeWfow3WsAAOYc0.gif.d64e9ab1ddf2e59d74e87a52feb2d188.gif

Vertical shear did a number on it today.

 

Shear is expected to relax a touch for a little while, and an upper level anticyclone will move overhead.. while it's moving over the Gulf Stream. These three things can help drive a little intensification.. but due to Isaias's poor structure? it may not do much more than help it hold serve.

 

At this point, at least imo.. the odds of any *significant* wind affecting New England are pretty close to nil. Of course, I've shat the bed on many weather predictions before.. so maybe mother nature throws a random curveball and we get a peppy 65mph tropical storm... but I really, really don't think so.

 

The question for me that remains is:

> do we get a breezy tropical storm?

Like 35-45mph?

> or just a tropical rainstorm?

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35 mins ago, rst3 said:

It's already falling apart.

> In the Bahamas. 

savetweetvid_EeWfow3WsAAOYc0.gif.d64e9ab1ddf2e59d74e87a52feb2d188.gif

Vertical shear did a number on it today.

 

Shear is expected to relax a touch for a little while, and an upper level anticyclone will move overhead.. while it's moving over the Gulf Stream. These three things can help drive a little intensification.. but due to Isaias's poor structure? it may not do much more than help it hold serve.

 

At this point, at least imo.. the odds of any *significant* wind affecting New England are pretty close to nil. Of course, I've shat the bed on many weather predictions before.. so maybe mother nature throws a random curveball and we get a peppy 65mph tropical storm... but I really, really don't think so.

 

The question for me that remains is:

> do we get a breezy tropical storm?

Like 35-45mph?

> or just a tropical rainstorm?

I never trust these storms...something slows it down a little...it misses some steering..something else sucks it north faster, grabs some other low pressure system that was meandering east...then before you know it the damn thing parks just offshore from my house and spins for three days :squid:  I like them to keep moving...shake some palm trees in Florida, then pick up speed and make a bee line for North Atlantic...

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