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Trump Has 91% Chance of Winning Reelection: Political Science Professor

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Who the hell knows.  Have to wonder what's driving this, if true.

 

Maybe lots of red-pilling going on with the chaos tacitly endorsed by the democratic party?

 

https://www.mediaite.com/news/trump-has-91-percent-chance-of-winning-reelection-political-science-professor/

 

Trump Has 91 Percent Chance of Winning Reelection: Political Science Professor


By Rudy Takala

Jul 8th, 2020, 2:24 pm

 

President Donald Trump is almost certain to win reelection in 2020, according to a political science professor whose “Primary Model” has correctly predicted five out of six elections since 1996.

 

“The Primary Model gives Trump a 91 percent chance of winning in November,” Stony Brook Professor Helmut Norpoth told Mediaite Tuesday. He noted that his model, which he introduced in 1996, would have correctly predicted the outcome of all but two presidential elections in the last 108 years: “This model gets it right for 25 of the 27 elections since 1912, when primaries were introduced.”

 

The exceptions include John F. Kennedy’s election in 1960 and George W. Bush’s election in 2000, when Bush won a majority of the electoral college despite losing the popular vote.

 

Not only will Trump win, Norpoth’s model suggests, the president will expand his margin in the Electoral College from 304 electoral votes in 2016 to 362 in 2020. That would be nearly identical to the 365 electoral votes former President Barack Obama won in 2008.

 

The model calculates a candidate’s chance of winning based on their success in early presidential nominating contests, putting former Vice President Joe Biden at a severe disadvantage because of crushing losses in his party’s first two presidential nominating contests. He won 15.8 percent of the vote in Iowa’s caucuses, where he placed fourth, and 8.4 percent of the vote in the New Hampshire primary, placing fifth. It wasn’t until the Democratic Party’s third contest, South Carolina’s primary, that Biden began racking up victories on the way to his party’s nomination.

 

The only other candidate to win the Democratic nomination after losing those two critical states was Bill Clinton in 1992, and under significantly different circumstances. Iowa Sen. Tom Harkin won his state’s presidential primary that year, but fell to a fourth-place finish in New Hampshire while Clinton surged to second.

 

Norpoth said his model succeeds by placing an emphasis on how much enthusiasm candidates are able to generate early in the nominating process, and by discounting public opinion surveys. “The terrain of presidential contests is littered with nominees who saw a poll lead in the spring turn to dust in the fall,” Norpoth said. “The list is long and discouraging for early frontrunners. Beginning with Thomas Dewey in 1948, it spans such notables as Richard Nixon in 1960, Jimmy Carter in 1980, Michael Dukakis in 1988, George H.W. Bush in 1992, and John Kerry in 2004, to cite just the most spectacular cases.”

 

Surveys have largely suggested Trump is falling further behind Biden as the coronavirus pandemic wears on, with several polls conducted in June showing Biden with an eight to 12 point lead nationally. A CNBC survey late last month showed Trump trailing in swing states as well, with Biden ahead by eight points in Wisconsin; six points in Pennsylvania; and five points in Florida — all states Trump won in 2016. As of July 8, the Cook Political Report insists Biden is on track to win with 279 electoral votes — one more than it predicted Clinton would win in 2016. (She ultimately won 227.)

 

Norpoth said his model predicted Trump’s election in 2016 partially by discounting opinion surveys. “Polls and poll-based forecasts all handed Hillary Clinton a certain victory,” he said.

Edited by fishweewee

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4 hours ago, fishweewee said:

The exceptions include John F. Kennedy’s election in 1960 and George W. Bush’s election in 2000, when Bush won a majority of the electoral college despite losing the popular vote.

Kennedy won through fraud, though I always thought he generated a lot of excitement. Stupid me for believing the fake news. Is there anything they won't lie about? 

 

Bush never excited anyone. He was always the anti Clinton. Nothing more. 

 

If it's about the excitement of the electorate, Trump has it in the bag. He's got his base, which despite the fake news lies had only grown since 2016. He's got the anti-protest protest vote. He's got the last of the wypepo chased away from the party of tolerance. He's even probably picking up a few blacks walking off the plantation. 

 

In the bag. 

 

#TRUMPSLIDE2020

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Polls. ****ing worthless. Dems never learn. Never never land.

They've repeatedly shot themselves in the foot long before Trump got elected. HRC, and now Creepy Joe. Not to mention the antics of the last 16 years. 

Only knoobie, the Frankie twins, and SlackZ-simper would vote for the ****....

I'd bet Gami is smart enough to vote for anybody but **** Joe....he just wouldn't tell anybody.

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We have been inundated with polls showing Biden way ahead of Trump in the battleground states.  Something leftists had expected to see following-on their various political riots. I think those polls are used to convince leftist supporters that the plan is working. Only the plan is starting to look bad now. 

 

When osama ran for office he gathered large crowds of screaming idiots to chant and sing songs of love to him. Where are all the pretty people for Biden ? You could follow the messaging and believe he is simply social distancing , like a good little subject, or you could wonder if anyone even cares about the guy. Even if they were to drop the ridiculous ‘we must fear the flu’ rules, Biden can not excite a crowd of any substantial size.

 

Then there is Trump. While running unopposed in the primaries, he was racking up huge numbers of votes. This political science professor is gauging his prediction based on excitement, and that is why he has Trump winning easily. Why I predict Trump winning easily is because of the need for the organized riots. Internal secret polling must be showing that blacks are not excited about an old racist white man, and that is really bad news for Democrats. There is no first to ever be elected factor involved to generate necessary enthusiasm. If the black vote was all sewn up, like normal, we would be hearing about the gayes and criminal aliens and Gullible Warming and such. Fact is they are having to pass on the things that they would like to be talking about, simply to try to patch up the whole in the dam of black voters. Spending time shoring up what should be a given is not a good look for team genius.

 

Nobody seems to care about Joe Biden. In the real primaries he was doing his normal fifth place stuff. It was not until the DNC elitists got involved, did Joe finally win one, South Carolina. They ran to the Democrat leader in SC and asked him to whip the black vote totals up for Joe, which happened. Then they forced the remaining candidates that were easily beating him to simply drop out the night before the big contest, Super Tuesday. So there never was any big ground swell push to elevate Biden. Then they cancelled the rest of the primaries to protect this artificial lead. He has no base, just some friendlies here and there. Bernie had a base but they didn’t want him lead the socialist revolution.

 

So I think this professor has a good method about him. He simply ignores public polls, something that I think we all do anyways. Uses enthusiasm for the candidates to gauge future participation and figures from there. 91% chance is a little high at first blush, but I think Trump gains electoral votes over last contest and the House is handed over to the adults in the wash of Biden’s defeat. Trump was looking especially presidential at Mount Rushmore.

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Posted (edited) · Report post

6 hours ago, Jetty Jumper said:

If Joe ever comes out of the basement and debates Trump,it will be over for the DNC.

By-Dumb won't come out of the basement because he can't. Every time he does he loses votes and the NYT's has advised him not to come out until the election.

 

The Dummy can't-didate is about as viable as a cardboard cutout and By-Dumb won't be debating Trump either because he can't do it.

 

Won't happen.

 

 

Edited by Jay Blair

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6 hours ago, Jetty Jumper said:

If Joe ever comes out of the basement and debates Trump,it will be over for the DNC.

Tom Friedman knows that too, which is why he set up the ridiculous rubric he wrote about this week as preconditions for Biden to debate Trump. 

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5 hours ago, jonesg said:

so the polls and MSM are wrong?

again?

Again? Still....... 

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