bob_G

Social distancing and the local economy

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On the bright side, one benefit of social distancing is I'm saving $50 a week on coffee and gas. But it ends there.

I can't see myself buying any kind of take out food for the foreseeable future. Now it's been said that barring a sudden vaccine, we're in modified shelter in place, social distancing and face mask mode into 2022. You wonder how any business will emerge from this?

 

Edited by bob_G

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Many will not.

Face masks will become the norm for many.

 

If we're lucky we climb out of recession in the 4th qtr.

 

This could get very ugly and very painful...…...

 

Stay safe.

Edited by Gotcow?

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Food shortages loom. Many meat processing plants have shut down due to employees working in close contact all becoming infected. 

Farmers are plowing under their entire crops because there's no restaurant business. 

My mom told me horror stories of food shortages in the great depression. Some of this stuff is beginning to sound eerily familiar. 

In the end I see Bill D, Joe G, Bernie and I sitting around a fire eating a squirrel on a stick.

Edited by bob_G

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I'm very concerned that the concept of herd immunity will be a solution to combatting C19.  You can see it being played out now, with the talk of opening up segments of the US on a rolling basis.  

 

Absent quick development of a vaccine, I'm afraid this could easily be the grim reality we all face .  Unfortunately, exposing most of us to the virus, a large number of us will die. 

 

That is more onerous  than our economy sputtering along on life support.

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1 hour ago, Gotcow? said:

...

If we're lucky we climb out of recession in the 4th qtr.

 

Lucky is right...for one, I'm not hopeful about that.  C-19 will dictate where the economy will go and it's still with us.

 

V shape, U shape,  or L shape recovery,  It's anyone guess.  Worst case is L shape.  As the first quarter earnings start filtering in, we should be getting some idea.  Personally, I don't think it will make for pleasant  reading. 

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1 hour ago, bob_G said:

On the bright side, one benefit of social distancing is I'm saving $50 a week on coffee and gas.

I'm saving at least a couple hundred a month between (work) parking, gas (working from home & price drop), paying for lunch & coffee at work, etc.

 

1 hour ago, bob_G said:

can't see myself buying any kind of take out food for the foreseeable future.  You wonder how any business will emerge from this?

 

My girlfriend & I are doing take out once a week from our favorite local restaurants to help them survive. We've also bought gift certificates from them as well.

 

The dry cleaner that's not far from where we live has permanently closed because of covid-19. The shop was empty when we walked by it recently with a sign on the door.  I'm sure there will be a lot of local mom & pop shops that disappear because of this. 

 

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4 mins ago, Joe G said:

 

Lucky is right...for one, I'm not hopeful about that.  C-19 will dictate where the economy will go and it's still with us.

 

V shape, U shape,  or L shape recovery,  It's anyone guess.  Worst case is L shape.  As the first quarter earnings start filtering in, we should be getting some idea.  Personally, I don't think it will make for pleasant  reading. 

Then we have to ask, what happens to future generations?

Trillions spent on stimulus and bailouts, and this is just phase 1. The next stimulus package promises to be just as big.  Factor in Medicare, Medicaid, entitlements, pensions, foreign aid, state aid, improvements to our infrastructure, the military. I'm sure there's much more. 

Who's going to pay this debt? We're on a slow train to eventually becoming a third world Bongo Congo.

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2 mins ago, zeke04 said:

The chance of a vaccine is a longshot, there has never been a successful vaccine for a corona virus in medical history, buy gold.

Dr. Sanjay Gupta says a vaccine is 12-18 months away.  :laugh:

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Just now, Joe G said:

I'm very concerned that the concept of herd immunity will be a solution to combatting C19.  You can see it being played out now, with the talk of opening up segments of the US on a rolling basis.  

 

Absent quick development of a vaccine, I'm afraid this could easily be the grim reality we all face .  Unfortunately, exposing most of us to the virus, a large number of us will die. 

 

That is more onerous  than our economy sputtering along on life support.

The number may be large but it appears the % will be low.

 

JMO, the potential lasting economic damage will be worse that the potential deaths.

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Well there's a bunch of options as to how this plays out.

 

Best case scenario is that, (unlike other coronaviruses), long term immunity develops after exposure (be it by infection or vaccine), and human effort and seasonal variation of the virus wins the battle this year, and the virus is eradicated from the planet.

 

This is a fairly low percentage shot.

 

More likely is that the virus becomes endemic, perhaps permanently circulating around the world.. forever. How could this happen? Even with a vaccine??

 

Some coronaviruses promote immunities as short as 40 weeks. Others, two years. This means absent a successful vaccine, and constant vaccination (and assuming the virus protein receptor site doesn't mutate to invalidate the vaccine)--- there could be yearly (40wk immunity) or biannual (104wk imm) outbreaks --essentially forever, ...as even those who've had it lose their antibody protection and can get it again. Although likely not quite as bad each additional round.

 

Black line is Cov2

Other lines are other coronaviruses 

Best shot(unlikely)

Screenshot_20200414-163923_Gallery.jpg.7a4b1f7059d0dccdd4a80c0e9eee0e07.jpg

 

40week immunity 

Screenshot_20200414-164024_Gallery.jpg.d9088182c6792beafacad77a01835dd4.jpg

 

104 week immunity 

Screenshot_20200414-163950_Gallery.jpg.fab592ff3ab3319262beddbc8be9fc6a.jpg

 

Most avenues from here on out look fairly devastating, short and long term, for the economy.. as periodic bursts of lockdown and social distancing may be required to keep the virus at bay as it flares and recedes

 

Ex) Blue bands are periods of social distancing

Screenshot_20200414-164640_Gallery.jpg.e7019b221c4904d1c528edc06d46d1e2.jpg

 

Well, we'll see how it shakes out. 

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And then there's the education dilemma. What happens in the fall when grade schools and high schools go back into session? Better yet what happens to colleges and universities? How good are you going to feel about spending $50k a year to send Junior off to a major university only to have it shut down because of c-19. Practicing social distancing in college is impossible. How do students live in dorms. Imagine a 250-seat lecture hall in an amphitheater with students who literally come from every corner of the Earth.  None of it seems feasible.

Edited by bob_G

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2 mins ago, capequahog said:

What a depressing thread, buy guns, ammo and bitcoin

seriously though,buy a bullet,rent a gun after reading this.Just what we needed was another social distancing post.

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3 hours ago, bob_G said:

On the bright side, one benefit of social distancing is I'm saving $50 a week on coffee and gas. But it ends there.

I can't see myself buying any kind of take out food for the foreseeable future. Now it's been said that barring a sudden vaccine, we're in modified shelter in place, social distancing and face mask mode into 2022. You wonder how any business will emerge from this?

 

I've been buying takeout for the family for the past several weeks...KFC, 99, Longhorn and last Friday I drove from Taunton to Braintree to get Cheesecake Factory takeout for my wife's birthday...the restaurant staff I've dealt with have all been very appreciative, and I've made sure to slip them a 10% cash tip just for bringing the food to my car...fingers crossed these restaurants can survive...

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