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Coronavirus and spring fishing

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The flu virus is not a corona virus.  No flu vaccine has any effect on it.  Nationwide, the US mortality rate for the flu is .1 percent, one tenth of a percentage point. Covid-19 mortality overall is 1.7%. 

 

I've never seen any public event cancelled for a flu outbreak. I've never seen airlines or booking agencies report major drops in use over the flu, or seen multiple cruise ships quarantined.

 

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Well I hope it all calms down in a few weeks so it doesn't screw up my annual cape trip in June. 

Travel and holiday companies are going to have a rough time and I can't see anyone to rush to book up a cruise any time soon. When this is all does calm down I hope China gets the sanctions and scrutiny it deserves, they are an incubator for pandemics. CV, Sars etc are all completely avoidable. They were supposed to clamp down on bush meat and these 'wet markets' last time.

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you're gonna have to fight me tooth and nail to keep me from fishing this spring, virus or not.  As long as you aren't fishing shoulder to shoulder with some guys at the ditch or pounding stockies or whatever overcrowded garbage you should be fine anyways.

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2 hours ago, jason colby said:

I was just on a jet with 240 passengers. Two were wearing masks. 

A week in Florida I saw another two masks. I think the public, in general realizes that the media is trying to whip this into more than it is. The death rate in Asia, where this is most prevalent, is less than 2% while here it "seems to be" in excess of 5%. An average of 10,000 people/year die in The USA from "the flu"; another 100 deaths will not skew the overall percentage above the normal percentage by enough of a percentage point to make an overall difference. Wake me up when the death count in the USA spikes to something above the norm.

This is just a "strain of flu" and a lot of the media hype is for ratings. Granted, the flu, in any form, is quite dangerous in people who are elderly or otherwise have weakened immune systems and that is where the death toll is particularly high. They are at risk and should be particularly cautious about getting "any flu". I used to get sick every winter until about 10 years ago I started getting flu shots every fall and I have not been sick since. Like any flu strain, we will soon have a vaccine for this one, we just have to ride it--this out without (unnecessarily) panicking.

Surely, "sometime in the future" (no one knows when, and it is "when" not "if") there will be a strain of flu or something easily transmittable that is far more deadly and if the death rate was in the double digits, we can all quarantine ourselves and we won't need the media to try and panic us to make us do it. We are not that stupid.... 

It’s not just the death part that is of concern. Do you really want to be sick and or quarantined for weeks?  Bring that into a house with kids and your looking at a couple months of chaos of missed school and work. 

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2 hours ago, jason colby said:

I was just on a jet with 240 passengers. Two were wearing masks. 

A week in Florida I saw another two masks. I think the public, in general realizes that the media is trying to whip this into more than it is. The death rate in Asia, where this is most prevalent, is less than 2% while here it "seems to be" in excess of 5%. An average of 10,000 people/year die in The USA from "the flu"; another 100 deaths will not skew the overall percentage above the normal percentage by enough of a percentage point to make an overall difference. Wake me up when the death count in the USA spikes to something above the norm.

This is just a "strain of flu" and a lot of the media hype is for ratings. Granted, the flu, in any form, is quite dangerous in people who are elderly or otherwise have weakened immune systems and that is where the death toll is particularly high. They are at risk and should be particularly cautious about getting "any flu". I used to get sick every winter until about 10 years ago I started getting flu shots every fall and I have not been sick since. Like any flu strain, we will soon have a vaccine for this one, we just have to ride it--this out without (unnecessarily) panicking.

Surely, "sometime in the future" (no one knows when, and it is "when" not "if") there will be a strain of flu or something easily transmittable that is far more deadly and if the death rate was in the double digits, we can all quarantine ourselves and we won't need the media to try and panic us to make us do it. We are not that stupid.... 

Quoting stats is fine, but a major difference between covid19 and seasonal flu is that science has been studying seasonal flu for many years now. Long enough to be able to create a unique vaccine for each flu season. Some work, some don't

 

What is not known considering how little time there has been to study this virus, is what will happen with this coronavirus as it moves along? Will the warmer weather kill it? How does it reproduce?  Will it respond to a vaccine? The study of the virus is new.  Hence the name novel coronavirus. Cases still seem to be spreading and multiplying across the globe. This is something totally and completely unknown.

 

While we are talking stats, if 5% of those infected here is the US die from this virus, how many deaths is that per 1,000 cases? per 10,000, 100,00 and so on.

I'm not panicking, heck, I'm not even being cautious. I wash my hands, take my vitamins as I always have. That's about it. But I have heard this argument so many times in the past couple of days, I felt I needed to respond. Hell my son is a funeral director, and he's exposed to far worse diseases than corona virus. And definitely all proven to be fatal.

 

We can talk about percentage of fatalities ad nauseum, but I'm sure you and a whole lot others would look at this stat much differently if you or a loved one were among that 2%, or 5% or any percent. At that point we may not be able to wake you when there is a spike above the norm.

 

As of today we are just under 4000 known cases here in the US. Going by that 5% death rate, we're already past that 100 new deaths that won't skew the normal percentage. Luckily for lack of a better way to say it, there has only been 17 deaths.

And instead of watching news we should all be watching reruns of Hill Street Blues, where the watch commander says it best in an un-panicked voice. " Be careful out there."

All else aside, I'm with you on this one point, we'll just have to ride it out.

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Posted (edited) · Report post

The point to what I wrote is that getting hit by lightening is "very often fatal" but the chances with coronavirus are really good. The chances of getting effected by either are both pretty remote (at this time) so just being sensible should be "enough" for now.

(I believe) All this hysteria is completely out of proportion....

 

Worse, the media blows the cv thing way out of proportion while ignoring this:

chicagomaine.jpg

Edited by jason colby
add image

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Posted (edited) · Report post

7 hours ago, CoffeeHangover said:

you're gonna have to fight me tooth and nail to keep me from fishing this spring, virus or not.  As long as you aren't fishing shoulder to shoulder with some guys at the ditch or pounding stockies or whatever overcrowded garbage you should be fine anyways.

If any thing this virus stuff will make people fish more and go out to eat and the movies less.

 

This head line from the national news does not help.

 

‘This is like a flu on steroids’

Edited by codfish

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9 hours ago, The TideRunner said:

 

 

As of today we are just under 4000 known cases here in the US. Going by that 5% death rate, we're already past that 100 new deaths that won't skew the normal percentage. Luckily for lack of a better way to say it, there has only been 17 deaths.

 

Corona virus 17 US deaths currently.

 

Here is some history on past epidemics: wiki

 

As of mid-March 2010, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) estimated that about 59 million Americans contracted the H1N1 virus, 265,000 were hospitalized as a result, and 12,000 died. The earliest reported cases in the US began appearing in late March 2009, in California,[118][119] then spread to infect people in Texas, New York, and assorted other states by mid-April. This spread continued across the country's population and by the end of May had infected citizens in all 50 states. The pattern continued through June of the same year. The total number of confirmed cases varied from 27,717[120] (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) confirmed and probable cases) and 25,453 (total of all state confirmed cases) as of June 26, 2009.

Changes in surveillance of cases of influenza-like illness, including new guidelines for identifying cases to test, increased laboratory testing, and new test kits able to distinguish this novel strain, resulted in a spike in the percent of cases tested positive for influenza. Of the positive cases, about a third were due to the novel strain. Also found were a substantial number of cases where the strain could not be subtyped

 

The new strain was identified as a combination of several different strains of Influenzavirus A, subtype H1N1, including separate strains of this subtype circulating in humans (see human influenza) and in pigs (see swine influenza). The strain transmits between humans and was initially reported to have a relatively high mortality rate in Mexico. The World Health Organization (WHO) and the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) have expressed serious concerns that the new strain has the potential to become an influenza pandemic.[145] It is reported that, because the virus is already widespread, containment will be impossible

 

Deja vu!

 

 

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21 hours ago, jason colby said:

a lot of the media hype is for ratings

Not just for ratings, there are other motivations at play, but won't get into it here.

 

As to fatality rate, it is abnormally high right now, not because it is more deadly than the regular flu, but because only a handful of people have been identified as being positive for it because only a handful of people have been tested, and those are generally the worst cases. There are no doubt a whole lot of people walking around with it that think it is just a regular flu or common cold, as the vast majority of cases are extremely mild. They just don't know it is actually Covid-19.

 

As more test kits become more widely available and many many more people are tested, you will see the death rate and serious hospitalization rate drop like a rock.

 

As to the member said that it is different from regular flu and that because it is new it is "Corona Virus", Coronaviruses (CoV) are a large family of viruses that cause illness ranging from the common cold to more severe diseases such as Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS-CoV) and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS-CoV).

 

Corona means "crown", and the viruses are named such for their molecular structure with has parts of it resembling a crown:

 

corona.jpg.0083c11c4badf346fb2dfc4040d83d98.jpg

 

 

Edited by Steve in Mass

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I was in Boston this week. Parked in Chinatown and ook the T with the kids to the museum of science and then went to the Celtics game. People were generally care free. 

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Shared a meal last night with a good friend who works at the Umass Medical Center where she teaches statistics, this past week she attend a conference about the virus from one of her peers who is an epidemiologist, its a 40 slide presentation, she will be sending the info to me latter this week, I will see what I can do to share the info.

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On 3/7/2020 at 9:39 AM, jason colby said:

I was just on a jet with 240 passengers. Two were wearing masks. 

A week in Florida I saw another two masks. I think the public, in general realizes that the media is trying to whip this into more than it is. The death rate in Asia, where this is most prevalent, is less than 2% while here it "seems to be" in excess of 5%. An average of 10,000 people/year die in The USA from "the flu"; another 100 deaths will not skew the overall percentage above the normal percentage by enough of a percentage point to make an overall difference. Wake me up when the death count in the USA spikes to something above the norm.

This is just a "strain of flu" and a lot of the media hype is for ratings. Granted, the flu, in any form, is quite dangerous in people who are elderly or otherwise have weakened immune systems and that is where the death toll is particularly high. They are at risk and should be particularly cautious about getting "any flu". I used to get sick every winter until about 10 years ago I started getting flu shots every fall and I have not been sick since. Like any flu strain, we will soon have a vaccine for this one, we just have to ride it--this out without (unnecessarily) panicking.

Surely, "sometime in the future" (no one knows when, and it is "when" not "if") there will be a strain of flu or something easily transmittable that is far more deadly and if the death rate was in the double digits, we can all quarantine ourselves and we won't need the media to try and panic us to make us do it. We are not that stupid.... 

Total agreement on the hype hysteria. However though the total # of infections are small the death rate in the US is actually statistically significant and certainly so as compared to the flu death rate.  Worldwide death rate from the flu is a fraction of a percent where Corona is averaging 3-4%.  Can’t ignore this shat and the viruses exponential potential.  If you are 60 and over take the common sense precautions and avoid large crowds especially if you are immune system compromised in anyway.... and for gods sake don’t go on a cruise unless of course the Darwin Award is a lifelong aspiration.

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44 mins ago, Tfole said:

However though the total # of infections are small the death rate in the US is actually statistically significant and certainly so as compared to the flu death rate.  Worldwide death rate from the flu is a fraction of a percent where Corona is averaging 3-4%

Did you not read and/or understand my post? :squid:

 

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