tomkaz

The Virus Thread

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1 min ago, tomkaz said:


Fascinating, young and old not getting infected, why? 
 

Did you find similar on mortality? Does lethality track incidence in same pattern? 

Young and old, usually aren’t the ones going out everyday.  It’s seems to be the virus lives a week or so on surfaces.  So when people go out to get supplies, they’re being exposed.  
 

I probably completely wrong, just like the info being reported.

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58 mins ago, ne_dan said:

Young and old, usually aren’t the ones going out everyday.  It’s seems to be the virus lives a week or so on surfaces.  So when people go out to get supplies, they’re being exposed.  
 

I probably completely wrong, just like the info being reported.

I don’t know, it just seems so odd and counter-intuitive to this layperson. 

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3 hours ago, KnewBee said:

In my line of work, a biological weapon can be discussed using LD50 or LcT 50 , and that means that 50% of those exposed will die.   These numbers for most biological weapons are/were derived from studies targeting healthy military age fighting males.   The LD50 is much higher for kids, elderly and suppressed.  

 

A virus cannot be "designed" to target a specific age group or demographic (except maybe ethnicity).  

-

Thanks...I'll do some reading on what you wrote.

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3 hours ago, patchyfog said:

Very sensible 

 

Scott Gottlieb, MD

@ScottGottliebMD

CDC will begin using the national flu surveillance tracking system with health departments in 5 cities to test patients with flu-like symptoms for #coronavirus. This is an important and prudent step that’ll help identify outbreaks earlier. The cities are SF, LA, ATL, Chicago, NY

I think Newark should be on that list.........oh well

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Doesn't make any sense that there are not more cases for the young, old and immune suppressed (all the most vulnerable), especially considering population density in China.   Has to be a correlation to exposure.  A virus is a virus is a virus.   It does not differentiate between hosts WRT age.   

 

Cold viruses can live outside a host for up to a week (many variables; Temp, humidity, etc...) whereas Flu viruses don't last more than a few hours outside a living host.   

 

Viruses are off my radar and I don't spend much time discussing them because they make for poor biological weapons as they are fragile and present difficulties when developing dissemination (weaponizing).    

 

Considering SARS and MERS, I'm thinking just another respiratory virus that that jumped from animal to human (zoonosis or zoonotic) and not a fan of a get away bio warfare agent that was accidently released.    Going to be a long time before all the facts are known.  

 

 

 

 

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This is a very long and informative post by a guest at a climate blog. I have not delved into who the guest is but the person appears both well informed and knowledgeable. I won’t paste the entire piece but maybe a couple of passages. 
 

Here is a discussion I found helpful and it touches in the UK citizen who was infested in Singapore and the infected many with him skiing in France. 
 

It also confirms that standard rectangular surgical masks are ineffective at containing varions coming out the the infected and keeping those healthy wearing them protected.

 

Wuhan transmission and clinical progression

Many more case reports are now giving a clear clinical picture.

 

Transmission route is either contact or inhalation (of real concern, because more flu like than cold like—even with annual flu shots influenza R0 remains about 2 because of flu vaccine issues covered in the previous post). Based on SARS and influenza, this means the likely Wuhan R0 is 3ish, so very contagious. The significant inhalation route is now shown by both the Diamond Princess cruise ship experiment (more below) and by the fact that ordinary surgical masks proved ineffective in the Wuhan hospital setting (JAMA, previous post).

 

Incubation period is 7-10 days from initial infection. The good news is that the 14-day quarantine adopted pretty much universally last week should therefore be effective (with a margin of safety) at Wuhan containment. But in most of Southeast Asia outside China, Japan, and Singapore, or in Africa should Wuhan spread there, 14-day quarantine will be difficult or impossible to maintain so the possibility of a pandemic remains.

 

The bad news is that Wuhan IS transmissible during some later part of the symptomless incubation period. The definitive clinical proof (there was comment debate about the reliability of previous post evidence from Japan and Germany) is an age 50’s UK male who attended an about 100 person sales conference in Singapore 1/20-1/22 2020. A single individual from Wuhan also attended this conference and was–per Singapore Wuhan containment policies– symptomless on arrival (no fever, no cough). That either symptomless or very early symptomatic individual transmitted Wuhan to the UK citizen in Singapore. The UK individual then flew to France for a 4-day family ski vacation 1/24-1/28 at Le Contamines-Montjoie. During the 4-day vacation the UK male remained symptomless (entire incubation time Singapore plus France at most 8 days) but transmitted Wuhan to 11 other individuals, 5 later diagnosed in UK (family and friends), 5 later diagnosed in France, and 1 later diagnosed in Spain. Clearly this case is NOT family close proximity contact transmission. This case may be a “super spreader” outlier, BUT it means a symptomless R0 as high as 11 cannot be ruled out, with a symptomless transmission period of several days. By comparison, the Rfor measles (absent vaccination) is 12-18, so a horrific Wuhan symptomless R0of 11 is within the realm of actual possibility.

This is VERY bad news, as the formal CDC guidance on URI’s is that transmission risk is highest with peak symptoms (equating to peak virion shedding)–as was the case with SARS. Not so with Wuhan, reinforcing the public health necessity of strict 14-day quarantine.

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They are lying to us. The Red Chinese Government is concerned with their exports, not their people. They fear people will reject their products for fear of contamination. That is their motivation for lying. I heard that satellites over China are detecting large mounts of the types of gases that are emitted when bodies are burned in large piles. Disgusting.

 

Our people are lying as well. No reports of Wuhan in Florida, and yet there is at least one case quarantined in a local hospital in my little podunk town. All hush hush, but scuttlebutt has disseminated amongst staff, who have warned their families and friends. The fear is that people will panic, so that is what is motivating our folks looking at this to lie to us. A very senior nurse there told me.

 

 100 years ago a flu ravaged our nation. It came from overseas. Go into any old cemetery and you can look at the dates of death for little children and see many happened at the same time. People were wearing cloth masks. I received instruction regarding mass epidemics because with them come mass deaths, and the need to properly remove infected corpses from society.

 

I read where AIDS came from village people eating monkey meat. We have seen many flus emerge from China that originated in their meat production farms, like duck ponds, pig pens, and chicken houses. When this one gets chased down, I would not be surprised to learn it involves their pigs somehow. They have suffered a huge loss in swine and pig meat feeds their huge population. 
 

My advice......prepay your casket and cemetery lots now to avoid the large burn piles that are certain to come. I can help. Send your money to me today, and I will mail you back papers regarding your individually tailored funeral planning guide. This important guide will be invaluable to you and will provide security for your family members. I have plans starting at just $15 a day. Full coverage can never be cancelled and you do not have to undergo an examination.

 

 

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On 2/13/2020 at 9:10 PM, tomkaz said:

I read the description that the virus looked like and animal virus combined with "something else" - What could that be? And why wasn’t that able to be identified? Unless it has been and it is either engineered or an impossible combination to occur naturally. 

Interesting discussion here about that.

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2 mins ago, tomkaz said:

$15 a day while you wait for me to die? That’s some racket. 

I was trying to elicit fear by describing a horrible event that over took us 100 years before. Even got AIDS thrown into the mix. Then the promise of protection that was obviously over the top. This to provide some levity. 

 

You sound like the prophet of doom describing ghouls spraying live virus through their scythes. It isn’t that serious. Millions of people will die this year from less exciting things. Hell, the commies will kill more babies this year than this virus could ever even make just sick.

 

Breathe.......the air is virus free here in Florida. Avoid planes traveling to and from New York. Avoid crowded buildings in New York City especially. The ventilation systems in those buildings simply recirculates the virus. Just avoid that entire area as infection is almost certain. Those carrying the virus will appear to look familiar to you, but they have been transformed. Soon the zombie apocalypse will be upon us and I can finally use up some of my stores of ammo. AVOID NEW YORK.

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Hmm, the symptoms are certainly different than influenza. Influenza gives you a fever, chills, body aches, maybe a dry cough and makes you extremely tired. Corona primarily attacks the lungs and you could think of it like a respiratory cold from hell.  The Checkerboard Pattern that appears on X-rays of the patient's lungs is a prime indicator of Corona virus damage.

 

Most of our generic drugs, viral samples, trials, tests, and vaccines are all done in China.

 

Gee maybe it is time to bring some of that work and manufacturing capability back in the USA.

 

You can't believe anything coming out of Communist China and their corrupt bureaucrats. Their response is the same as any other Socialist/Communist country: the forced control of the population and information by the military because it is the only effective tool left in their tool box. Like all dictatorships their primary tool is a hammer and you are the nail.

 

Let's hope they have not nailed the rest of us with the corrupt and filthy country.

Edited by Jay Blair

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14 mins ago, FishinMortician said:

Soon the zombie apocalypse will be upon us and I can finally use up some of my stores of ammo. AVOID NEW YORK.

That made me laugh :D .

 

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One factory in Chongqing reopened, immediately shut down after 2 workers tested positive. Entire work force equipped with masks and underwent multiple temp screenings, didn't make a difference there. Containing the virus' spread and not collapsing their economy has to be a harrowing balancing act...so far not looking great. 

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