flyangler

What happens when a Left-leaning poll has Trump smoking the leading Dem candidates?

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This one is for the young whipper snapper who thinks he knows how to read polls. This comes from YouGov who, according to the 538 ratings that the young punk likes, is rated B- and has a mean-reverted bias of D+0.4. That means it leans Left so consider that while reading the following. 
 

Sample set of 1,500 ADULTS D=35% I=40% R=25%.........

So D-R=10%........

DEMS ARE OVERSAMPLED BY AT LEAST 7% vs Population
 

Which makes this polls finding a real problem for Dems, especially after impeachment. 

Poll: Trump leads Biden by 6, Sanders by 26, Warren by 30, Buttigieg by 41

by Paul Bedard  | December 19, 2019 02:10 PM

 

President Trump is starting to run away with the 2020 election.

 

In the second poll in two days to show his advantage, the latest YouGov/Economist "electability" survey found the president leading the top tier of Democratic challengers from 6 points to 41 points among registered voters, even amid his impeachment.

 

In the survey, 40% said that former Vice President Joe Biden would “probably beat Donald Trump.” But 46% said Biden would “probably lose to Donald Trump.”

 

Against Sen. Bernie Sanders, the margin favored Trump 57%-31%.

 

Trump also leads Sen. Elizabeth Warren, 57%-27%.

 

And against South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg, he is up 59%-18%.

 

“At the moment, registered voters don’t think any of the Democratic frontrunners will defeat the president next November. Biden comes closest: 40% of registered voters think he will win, while 46% believe the president will be re-elected if Biden is the nominee. Among Democrats, only Biden and Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders have a majority that believes they can win,” said the poll analysis.

It also suggested that Democrats have other reasons to be nervous.

 

“It may not be just worry about candidate electability and impeachment jitters that drive Democratic concern. The strong economy is helping the president. Although his approval rating remains low (40% in this week’s poll), his approval rating for handling the economy is at 50%, his second-best rating ever on that issue,” said the poll analysis.

 

It added, “One in three Americans believes the economy is getting better, while 26% believe it is getting worse — another positive evaluation. And when asked whether they personally are better off than they were four years ago, more say they are than say they are not.”

 

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you spend a lot of energy focusing on polls at a time when they are meaningless......

have fun.... cherry picking the ones that make you feel good.... and ignoring those that cause you butt hurt.

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I dunno, I see a lot of excitement out there for Warren and Biden.   They almost have no empty chairs at their rally in the auditorium in the sr living facility in places like Ottumwa. 

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7 mins ago, fish'nmagician said:

you spend a lot of energy focusing on polls at a time when they are meaningless......

have fun.... cherry picking the ones that make you feel good.... and ignoring those that cause you butt hurt.

Skippy, we have discussed this before, there is a time and place for everything. The key here is timing (middle of impeachment) and what was being asked (electability). Trump is beating them on the issue of electability in the middle of impeachment. Oh, and in a poll of ADULTS that is D+10%. What does that tell you Skippy? 
 

And "cherry picking"? This is a pollster who is rated as left-leaning for God’s sake. Not Rasmussen, not Zogby. Not registered voters, not likely voters. How could I pick a poll that is less likely to give Trump a positive spin? 
 

Skippy, feel free to start a discussion of a poll that you think I am ignoring, one that will cause me real butt hurt. Otherwise, ****. 

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15 mins ago, tomkaz said:

Skippy, we have discussed this before, there is a time and place for everything. The key here is timing (middle of impeachment) and what was being asked (electability). Trump is beating them on the issue of electability in the middle of impeachment. Oh, and in a poll of ADULTS that is D+10%. What does that tell you Skippy? 
 

And "cherry picking"? This is a pollster who is rated as left-leaning for God’s sake. Not Rasmussen, not Zogby. Not registered voters, not likely voters. How could I pick a poll that is less likely to give Trump a positive spin? 
 

Skippy, feel free to start a discussion of a poll that you think I am ignoring, one that will cause me real butt hurt. Otherwise, ****. 

Can you even begin to imagine what he's going to be like when Trump wins a 2nd term?

 

He's barely tolerable now.

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7 mins ago, Gotcow? said:

Can you even begin to imagine what he's going to be like when Trump wins a 2nd term?

 

He's barely tolerable now.

Remember, there is Frank's "truth" and reality, he doesn’t like too much reality interfering with his notions of "truth". 

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26 mins ago, tomkaz said:

Skippy, we have discussed this before, there is a time and place for everything.

the time and place always seems to be when you find a poll you like,

but it's not the time if you see a poll you don't like,

 

either way,

the polls don't mean much till the Democrat nominee is selected.

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10 mins ago, Gotcow? said:

Can you even begin to imagine what he's going to be like when Trump wins a 2nd term?

 

He's barely tolerable now.

Frank's a comedy act, nothing more, nothing less.

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3 mins ago, fish'nmagician said:

the time and place always seems to be when you find a poll you like,

but it's not the time if you see a poll you don't like,

 

either way,

the polls don't mean much till the Democrat nominee is selected.

it has nothing to do with a particular poll

 

it has everything to do with mental midgets spouting off from their mother's basement

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12 mins ago, fish'nmagician said:

 

 

the polls don't mean much till the Democrat nominee is selected.

Got to narrow that field to just one loser.

 

Then Trump can beat them like a drum.

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I’m not a poll advocate especially because of how wrong they were in 2016.  But this poll has to make the Democratic Party squirm for sure.

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