flyangler

Is bicameral and bipartisan censure of the President the best path for everyone, Trump included?

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Is it possible that we could see impeachment replaced by formal censure of Trump in BOTH the House and the Senate? Could a bicameral and bipartisan rebuking of Trump be the best path out for all parties, including Trump? 
 

I am moving back over to a greater sense that bipartisan censure is the smartest way out of this for the House Democrats. And not just the House Dems but also for some anxious GOP senators.
 

My belief that Pelosi could go for censure over full articles of impeachment flagged a bit as the House Dems started to excrete spittle when they talked about quid pro quo and obstruction. When polls had their initial spike, it looked as though the Dems thought they had gained the upper hand and thought they would soon see a preference cascade for impeachment. However, after the spike, nothing, the polls barely moved.
 

Worse, when adjusted for demographic overweighting of Dems (5-13%) in national polls and unregistered "adults" (up to 20% in some polls), only 40-45% really supported impeachment and removal. And, National poll slippage of a few % was almost all from self-identified GOP who backed away as they got to see more evidence. And even worse for Dems, support for the inquiry and/or impeach and remove, was supported by even fewer Independent snd GOP voters In battleground states. Meanwhile, support for Trump and feelings against impeachment are running close to 90% among Republicans. 
 

And through this all, Trump's overall approval rating across all polls has not budged outside of the MoE. Therein lies an incongruence, how could 50%+ of American adults suddenly want Trump removed from office and yet his approval rating has not budged? Of course, the Demedia is trying to convince both the Dems and the American people that the majority of Americans support removing Trump. The Demedia believe that sheeple will always want to be on the "correct" side of any issue so the Media is trying to convince the people that there is a consensus to impeach and remove. 
 

Not running in Trump's favor are the number of independents, and a lesser but significant number of GOP, who feels his phone call was NOT PERFECT and that it was not proper for him to ask for a "favor" related to the Bidens and Burisma. And therein lies the Democrats' opportunity to maximize what they can from their current weak hand and seek a bipartisan rebuke of Trump. 
 

Whether wishful thinking or not, the WaPo or Times have claimed there are up to 20 GOP senators who do not feel what Trump did was proper but that it does not rise to an impeachable offense (see NYT article below). My guess is there are at least that many GOP House members who feel the same. If Pelosi was smart, she would approach McConnell about a compromise: and end to the divisive drive to a toothless impeachment in exchange for a vote in both houses for a censure which rebukes Trump. The censure would have to be worded such that abuse of power is acknowledged but not claim an obstruction of justice. 
 

My $0.02 for your consideration. For the usual suspects, please don’t accuse me of trying to "influence" people as the couple dozen who will read this are almost certain to have their own opinions locked it. I am just tossing this out there for discussion. 

 

Republicans Try Different Response to Ukraine Call: Quid Pro Quo Isn’t Impeachable

By Katie Rogers and Catie Edmondson

NY Times

Nov. 4, 2019

WASHINGTON — Since the impeachment inquiry into President Trump began, most Republicans in Congress have made the argument that the president’s decision to withhold military aid to Ukraine in exchange for investigating a political opponent was not a quid pro quo or an abuse of power. 

 

But after a partisan House vote last week opening up a public phase of the inquiry — and a parade of government officials who testified to Congress that there was a quid pro quo — some in Mr. Trump’s party are testing out a new refrain: Even if a quid pro quo existed, it is not grounds for impeachment. They are merely concerned.

 

Concern is different than rising to the level of impeachment,” Representative Tom Cole, Republican of Oklahoma, said on NBC’s “Meet the Press” on Sunday. “Look, if I believed everything the Democrats are saying, I would still say this isn’t an impeachable offense.” 

 

The new line of attack, echoed by lawmakers and White House officials, is a turnabout for Republicans toiling to defend the president, who for weeks had led the cry of “no quid pro quo.” When Mick Mulvaney, the president’s chief of staff, admitted weeks ago that there was a quid pro quo and said that reporters should “get over it,” congressional Republicans, stunned by the mess Mr. Mulvaney had created, waited until he denied a few hours later that he had said what he said. They then embraced his denial...

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WaPo several days ago:

 

Growing number of GOP senators consider acknowledging Trump’s quid pro quo on Ukraine

November 1, 2019 at 7:22 p.m. EDT

A growing number of Senate Republicans are ready to acknowledge that President Trump used U.S. military aid as leverage to force Ukraine to investigate former vice president Joe Biden and his family as the president repeatedly denies a quid pro quo.

 

In this shift in strategy to defend Trump, these Republicans are insisting that the president’s action was not illegal and does not rise to the level of an impeachable offense as the Democratic-led House moves forward with the open phase of its probe.

 

But the shift among Senate Republicans could complicate the message coming from Trump as he furiously fights the claim that he had withheld U.S. aid from Ukraine to pressure it to dig up dirt on a political rival, even as an increasing number of Republicans wonder how long they can continue to argue that no quid pro quo was at play in the matter. 

 

The pivot was the main topic during a private Senate GOP lunch on Wednesday, according to multiple people familiar with the session who spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe the meeting. Sen. John Neely Kennedy (R-La.) argued that there may have been a quid pro quo but said that the U.S. government often attaches conditions to foreign aid and that nothing was amiss in Trump’s doing so in the case of aid to Ukraine, these individuals said.

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The Democrats in the HOR might vote for censure, but it would be certain death for Republicans to do so. Their best move is to simply stand by and watch the meltdown. They have nothing to gain by giving the Democrats an assist. This is their little deal. They brought it forward foolishly and they can live with it.

 

It is pretty obvious at this point that this has been another gigantic waste of time, over a non issue that never was. Why would a Republican sign onto this loser ?

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Not a smart move for many GOP politicians.  A fair percentage of r voters will withhold support if their rep/senator votes for censure.  In my district the r congressman gets a very slim majority.  And he votes against Trump most of the time.  If he looses three percent of his base he will loose. 

 

I have to wonder if this is the Mitt play?

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19 mins ago, FishinMortician said:

The Democrats in the HOR might vote for censure, but it would be certain death for Republicans to do so. Their best move is to simply stand by and watch the meltdown. They have nothing to gain by giving the Democrats an assist. This is their little deal. They brought it forward foolishly and they can live with it.

 

It is pretty obvious at this point that this has been another gigantic waste of time, over a non issue that never was. Why would a Republican sign onto this loser ?

 

16 mins ago, Steve_in_PA said:

Not a smart move for many GOP politicians.  A fair percentage of r voters will withhold support if their rep/senator votes for censure.  In my district the r congressman gets a very slim majority.  And he votes against Trump most of the time.  If he looses three percent of his base he will loose. 

 

I have to wonder if this is the Mitt play?

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These....fark the Dimm's, give them no help and way out of this mess..new rules fark you gloves are off!

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Nothing short of full blown Impeachment will satisfy the rabid left.

 

You can't make this many allegations of criminal and corrupt conduct by Trump and then deliver a nothingburger slap on the wrist.

Pelosi can kiss her speakers positon goodbye if she does not Impeach.

 

Not to mention Trump will be reminding them of their failure almost daily.

Edited by Gotcow?

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How many Dem Senators are on the campaign trail running for President?  If this impeachment goes forward, and it moves to the Senate, those Dem Senators have to be present and listen.  That could go on for weeks.  Taking them off the campaign trail.  Not good for their run.

 

Maybe that is the plan to help out the old perverted stroke victim.

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45 mins ago, nalu22 said:

 

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These....fark the Dimm's, give them no help and way out of this mess..new rules fark you gloves are off!

That is correct.....now the NY Times expects the Republicans to just fold up like they always do and work to save the Democrats.
 

Apprently the Times isn’t confident that Schifty can get it done. Too late they already voted for it. 

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7 mins ago, patchyfog said:

kaz, they're still in the investigation phase of possible impeachment. Why would Dems be considering censure at this point?

Because they know they don't have sh*t for evidence that will withstand cross examination in a Senate trial.

 

If they had the smoking gun that they have been claiming this Impeachment process would already be done and President Pence would be sitting in the White House.

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12 mins ago, patchyfog said:

kaz, they're still in the investigation phase of possible impeachment. Why would Dems be considering censure at this point?

The calendar, plain and simple. There is not enough time for them to run this out and handed over to the Senate without interfering with the primary votes in the earliest states. You can’t exactly have five Democratic senators out on the campaign trail while a Senate impeachment trial is underway. unless you assume that the Democratic establishment in the house is trying to stack the deck in favor of Joe Biden or mayor Pete.

 

And if you think the House investigation is going to go on into next summer, keep dreaming, there are enough witnesses in Washington to call to keep this pot boiling for that long.

 

 

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14 mins ago, patchyfog said:

kaz, they're still in the investigation phase of possible impeachment. Why would Dems be considering censure at this point?

They've been in the investigative phase since Trump came down the escalator.They're going to stay the path right up till the election and beyond if he's reelected.

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12 mins ago, Gotcow? said:

Because they know they don't have sh*t for evidence that will withstand cross examination in a Senate trial.

 

If they had the smoking gun that they have been claiming this Impeachment process would already be done and President Pence would be sitting in the White House.

^^^ this too.

 

Right now the entire charge of abuse of power vis-à-vis the quid pro quo is a Rorschach test. If there’s no smoking gun then enough arguments could be made either way to make it purely a partisan call.
 

The obstruction of justice charge that Schiff keeps alluding to is also not going to hold water as far as it being an impeachable offense. Mueller could cite examples that were arguable Lee obstructive, but he couldn’t bring a charged or make an indictment. How is it that the Democrats in the house think they’re going to do any better?

 

In the Senate all the GOP would have to do is bring in witnesses with historical perspective to remind Americans how many times prior administrations of both parties have flaunted Congressional demands for documents and testimony. 
 

Face it Patchy, the Democrats brought a knife to a gun fight and didn’t even know how to use the knife.

Edited by tomkaz

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1 hour ago, saltydawg said:

If what we know is all there is to know, then yes. 

If what we know is all there is then NO,

 

I understand why Republicans want to enable POTUS to rig elections.

I understand that Republicans bow to authoritarianism (so long as it's the RIGHT kind of leader)

but we cannot enable a president to declare he is above the law and act this way.

 

Nixon resigned for far less,

because Republicans of that era had character and principles.

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