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Lagerhead

How will stocks be impacted by election?

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18 hours ago, Lagerhead said:

I figure fake polls will drop the market. 

 

I found this... might get pinked.

 

https://www.thebalance.com/presidential-elections-and-stock-market-returns-2388526

 

 

 

Market's barely budged in two years. We're at a record, but not too far from where we were two years ago. The loss of of 36,000 manufacturing jobs last month will drag more on future returns than any polls.

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Gee. I wonder. A bunch of Democrats are talking about taking over 18%  of the economy and taxing you to $40tt to pay for it. 

 

What could go wrong?

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Flat til we know who wins.

I moved a large % to cash at the midterms.

People who make money and money decisions

like the current administration's game plan.

I'll stick my neck out and say a 25-30%+ correction

if parties change hand at the White House.

Then recession. 

Trump wins and Dow 35k+.

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16 hours ago, Gamakatsu said:

 

Market's barely budged in two years. We're at a record, but not too far from where we were two years ago. The loss of of 36,000 manufacturing jobs last month will drag more on future returns than any polls.

You must have your investments in the wrong places. Past year, averaging about 6-8%. Last 3 years, averaging about 11-13% annually.

 

I am expecting a spike over the next 6-7 months, then a sharp drop come late summer. After the election and a Republican win, bit of s spike, then a slow and steady recovery.

 

In the far outside chance the Democrats win, none of it will matter anyway, we will quickly become a third world country the likes they are seeing in Venezuela, and even cash with be worthless.

Edited by Steve in Mass

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7 hours ago, Steve in Mass said:

You must have your investments in the wrong places. Past year, averaging about 6-8%. Last 3 years, averaging about 11-13% annually.

 

I am expecting a spike over the next 6-7 months, then a sharp drop come late summer. After the election and a Republican win, bit of s spike, then a slow and steady recovery.

 

In the far outside chance the Democrats win, none of it will matter anyway, we will quickly become a third world country the likes they are seeing in Venezuela, and even cash with be worthless.

You're magical because the S&P was down 5.8% last year. Yes, of course cash will be worthless if a Dem wins. I remember that tripe when Obama won. Gold standard, fiat currency, blah, blah, blah.

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On 11/1/2019 at 10:16 PM, Lagerhead said:

I figure fake polls will drop the market. 

 

I found this... might get pinked.

 

https://www.thebalance.com/presidential-elections-and-stock-market-returns-2388526

 

 

IMHO it's utterly impossible to guess what the market will say. Zuckerberg and others are in a state of twitch at the idea of a President Warren. A President Biden isn't remotely as scary. A second term for President Trump will be celebrated by the capital markets and Vladimir Putin alike. 

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4 hours ago, BrianBM said:

IMHO it's utterly impossible to guess what the market will say. Zuckerberg and others are in a state of twitch at the idea of a President Warren. A President Biden isn't remotely as scary. A second term for President Trump will be celebrated by the capital markets and Vladimir Putin alike. 

You need to explain that last part. Why would a Trump win be celebrated by capital markets and Putin? I could see a Trump victory being despised by Globalists and last I checked, Russia is not part of the USA........Degraded globalism could be good or bad for US markets but that line you tossed out isn’t making sense to me. 

Edited by aae0130

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4 hours ago, BrianBM said:

IMHO it's utterly impossible to guess what the market will say. Zuckerberg and others are in a state of twitch at the idea of a President Warren. A President Biden isn't remotely as scary. A second term for President Trump will be celebrated by the capital markets and Vladimir Putin alike. 

Putin?  Seriously. Are you now on Franks payroll?

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I remember Dems saying the stock market was going to crash if Trump got elected. Of course the opposite proved true, and now it's Obama's economy because it hasn't.

I guess Putin installed the wrong candidate since he wants America to fail. I think the fake Indian will get Putin's help this time. I predict a lot of sketchy Russian meddling in the form of savage Facebook memes in another  year

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16 hours ago, Gamakatsu said:

You're magical because the S&P was down 5.8% last year. Yes, of course cash will be worthless if a Dem wins. I remember that tripe when Obama won. Gold standard, fiat currency, blah, blah, blah.

Just gotta pick the right mutual funds.

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11 hours ago, aae0130 said:

Why would a Trump win be celebrated by capital markets and Putin?

Well, he still thinks Trump and Putin are buddies. Nothing could be further from the truth, but you know the left, they like fantasies.

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On 11/2/2019 at 9:17 PM, Too Close said:

Flat til we know who wins.

I moved a large % to cash at the midterms.

People who make money and money decisions

like the current administration's game plan.

I'll stick my neck out and say a 25-30%+ correction

if parties change hand at the White House.

Then recession. 

Trump wins and Dow 35k+.

If investors think Trump will loose it will start sliding before the election.  If the Indian is the d nominee and wins I'd say 30% drop is conservative.

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