flyangler

Do the Chinese realize that Trump is increasingly likely to be re-elected?

Rate this topic

30 posts in this topic

Summary for the attention deprived: The Chinese are now become more willing to deal with Trump because they realize three things:

 

  1. Trump's tariffs and trade restrictions are seriously hurting their economy. 
  2. It now appears Trump is increasingly likely to serve through his first term into 2021. Third
  3. Given his strength and his potential Dem competitor, the odds of Trump's re-election are increasing and the Chinese understand continued intransigence now will only make their future negotiations with Trump in 2021-2025 more difficult. 

 

For months we’ve been told that China has the upper hand in its dealing with Trump. That they have the money and wherewithal to wait out the US election in 2020 in the hope of dealing with a new president, a Democrat, in January 2021. 

 

And who could blame them? After they got over the shock of Trump's victory (they followed the Media's complete belief in her winning), they never thought he’d follow through on Trump's charges of China being an unfair trader, a currency manipulator, and an IP theft. But Trump did and after being ignored by China, he did bring in the first tariffs. 

 

But the Chinese didn’t react because they were told by the smartest people that he would not survive his first term, that the Americans would eliminate Trump for him. Once Xi was elected, he sensed the growing weakness, and played hardball against Trump's bluster and threats of tariffs. Xi was advised that Trump would acquiesce and not upset the delicate balance between trade, jobs and the Chinese funding the US fiscal deficit. Xi also got aggressive in the Asia region reading Trump as an isolationist who would not challenge Chinese hegemony. 

 

Two years later, Xi has learned the Trump does not bluff, that he is willing to double down on tariffs and more. Trump is also strengthening the depleted US military and letting it rearm itself - while warning China on its hegemony. 

 

So last spring, as the broad outline of a trade deal was forming, Xi pulled the plug on the deal. It has been reported that he was convinced by his advisors, western policy experts and polls of American voters that Trump would not be re-elected. That Robert Mueller's report would mark the beginning of the end for Trump and his time in office. If he did not end his term early, he would surely not be re-elected. 

 

And like many, Xi miscalculated on Mueller, having believed all that the US Media told him (except Fox News, which Xi was told to ignore by the former American diplomats and policy experts who were his outside advisors). 

 

But Xi sensed Trump was wounded by Mueller and continued to believe he could wait him out. But then Hong Kong happened which is a psychological issue in this saga. 

 

But the tariffs and reduced trade started to have real repercussions in the Chinese economy. Even with pumping massive stimulus into the system, greater bank lending, devaluing the Yuan and other interventions, their economy was hurting. Tariffs and reduced economic activity were having an impact. But they still felt they could wait Trump out. 

 

Then, out of nowhere, the Chinese started sounding more cooperative. Mention of a "light" trade deal that did not include foreign policy and other issues was made. The Chinese backed off on their restrictions on the import of US soybeans and swine. Even as the impeachment cries in the USA rose with the Ukraine phone call disclosures, the Chinese sounded more and more cooperative. This week, with howls in the US Media that Trump "is done" and headlines about polls telling of his decreasing support among Americans, the Chinese camp to make a deal in DC. 

 

Why? Just as the moment of Trump's wounding or removal they’d been waiting for was at hand, the Chinese came to make some sort of deal. They’d been told by their American advisors that Trump would likely be removed or chose not to run in 2020 due to exhaustion or just to escape future punishment. So why now? 

 

There are many factors at play here but I will offer one you do not see mentioned in the press: the Chinese have looked at the Ukraine matter and have decided this is no more devastating than was Muller. The Chinese are masters of using foreign aid as a lever to those taking it and they see this as no big deal. 

 

In fact, the Chinese, whether reading tea leaves or watching Trump work the G7 meeting and his subsequent political rallies, see a man driven to succeed. A vibrant leader who looks neither vulnerable nor defeated. An American President who appeared ready to take on any challenger the Democrats could throw at him. 

 

And that gets to the 2020 election, the Chinese have had a chance to evaluate the Democrat candidates as potential future presidents and they are not impressed. While they would love to deal with any of the front runners come 2021, they don’t see anyone who can be counted on the vanquish The Trump. 

 

So the Chinese, realists, are dealing with Trump, in small steps, now believing that odds are even or higher that Trump will be re-elected next year. 

 

How it is that the Chinese can see that but Democrats and their scribes in the Media cannot?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I just saw where Trump and the Chinese signed some sort of trade deal.

Just the headlines, though, and haven't delved into the specifics.

Trump was isolating the Chinese, signing trade deals with Japan, and other Asian countries, and the Chinese are feeling left out.

And feeling the tariff pinch probably provided a little pep in their step to get things done.

Even with all the headwinds, he is still getting business done.

The man thrives on chaos.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

@dena The deal is beyond food, it includes a relaxation of the demand that US financial firms doing business there must form a partnership with a Chinese bank. My firm has been in one of those for years, where their people call the shots and suck up all the intellectual chops we bring to the effort. Removing that IS a big deal. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 mins ago, tomkaz said:

@dena The deal is beyond food, it includes a relaxation of the demand that US financial firms doing business there must form a partnership with a Chinese bank. My firm has been in one of those for years, where their people call the shots and suck up all the intellectual chops we bring to the effort. Removing that IS a big deal. 

 

They did that with more than just banks.

It is how we lose so much tech to them.

 

Ah so, dat is how you do dat...next thing you know, there is a Chinese model of a product that was exclusively ours.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 mins ago, Riverboat33 said:

Trump getting re-elected, that was my first thought.

 

Everyone sees the writing on the wall, except the libs.

Can you recall how many here asked: “Why should the Chinese deal with Trump? They have their regional trade partners, a growing economy with non-US trade that will more than pick up the slack."

 

We heard it repeatedly on these pages. It also came in the form of Trump's unfulfilled campaign promises that certain magical thinkers claimed were "lies" just for the rubes. 

 

And now, Trump has gotten so far under their skin and they so badly need a deal that they are willing to give Trump a victory and the ability to check off another campaign promise. And doing that ahead of the US election. 

 

So, in an unintended way, the Chinese are now "supporting" Trump's re-election odds by giving him another talking point of his successes. 

 

Did you hear him last night talking about the $50Bn in trade? 

Edited by tomkaz

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 mins ago, tomkaz said:

 

 

So, in an unintended way, the Chinese are now "supporting" Trump's re-election odds by giving him another talking point of his successes. 

 

 

This needs to be investigated, could be another charge in the articles of impeachment, said in my best Schiff voice.

 

Trump is talking to China, is that collusion ?

 

China knows stuff, the entire world is laughing at the libs in this country.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

How does this development impact how Pelosi deals with the USMCA? Trump can now say: "I did what I could with China to support American businesses, workers and consumers. I cannot force Speaker Pelosi to do her share."

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 mins ago, makorider said:

For sure they are hedging, thus the slow walk in via ...what are they calling it, a soft deal?

But the slow walk was meant to stretch it out so that Trump would not get a deal before the election. The catalyst here are the increased tariffs that Trump was putting into effect on October 15th.

 

Recall that Trump pushed those back from October 1st, the rationale being that would fall on the Chinese 70th anniversary. The reality is this deal has been in development for weeks and they needed more time to agree to what was on the table. The talks this week had been previously scheduled and it would have been bad form to have higher and broader tariffs go into effect just before the next round of trade talks. 

 

So they were pushed back two weeks to allow the negotiations to continue. 

 

But make no mistake, it was Trump's wherewithal to imposed a third round of expanded tariffs that forced the Chinese hands, that and the realization that Trump will remain a factor until at least January 2021. 

 

If only the Chinese had read "The Art of the Deal" sooner...., 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 mins ago, makorider said:

For sure they are hedging, thus the slow walk in via ...what are they calling it, a soft deal?

I find the use of "lite" or "soft" deal from the Media interesting, as if it is meant to diminish even this development. I heard a MSNBC talking head complain that Trump did not get human rights guarantees as part of this deal, thus Trump failed. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to register here in order to participate.

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!


Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.


Sign In Now

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.