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Abortion Rate at Post-Roe Lows, Is the “Roe Effect” a Factor?

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I would like to keep this discussion to The Roe Effect as defined below and not the umpteenth discussion of abortion itself. Please. 

 

The AP article below discusses the falling rate of abortions in the USA:

 

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According to the report, the 2017 abortion rate was 13.5 abortions per 1,000 women aged 15-44 — the lowest rate since the Supreme Court’s 1973 Roe v. Wade decision legalizing abortion. Following that ruling, the number of abortions in the U.S. rose steadily — peaking at 1.6 million in 1990 before starting a steady, still-continuing decline. The abortion rate is now less than half what is was in 1990.

 

But of all the possible reasons for this discussed plausibly below, one not mentioned by the AP writer is The Roe Effect, from Wikipedia:

 

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The Roe Effect is a hypothesis about the long-term effect of abortion on the political balance of the United States, which suggests that since supporters of the legalization of abortion cause the erosion of their own political base, the practice of abortion will eventually lead to the restriction or illegalization of abortion. It is named after Roe v. Wade, the U.S. Supreme Court case that effectively legalized abortion nationwide in the U.S. Its best-known proponent is James Taranto of the Wall Street Journal who coined the phrase "Roe effect" in Best of the Web Today, his OpinionJournal.com column.

 

The AP article is written with an abortion-friendly tone and is based on polling from an organization that promotes abortion rights and access to abortion. Thus, it would have a bias that might now want to accept that society’s views on abortion might be changing and that could be because for 40+ years, woman including to have an abortion are not raising the aborted children, and passing on their ideological views. That is, if people learn some of their views during their upbringing, reducing the number of future young adults who would be brought up listening to pro-abortion views might have an impact on the societal average views. 

 

And if one believes that there is at least some validity to the Roe Effect, does it not have wider application to wider views and political leanings? Poll after poll shows young people are more conservative than most adults think, they are having sex later and with fewer partners, are using less pot and other drugs and are worried about their financial futures. Young Conservatives groups are showing up on campuses more widely than in the past. These are complex topics and their is clearly no definite trend but there are signs that the current crop of young people might have more conservatives than in the past (note that the number who related to socialism is rising so maybe there is a balancing there). 

 

So, Is it possible that widespread abortion, resulting in the elimination of 50mm+ lives since Roe, is having an effect on the number of women who seek abortion or the number who are using other forms of contraception refusing to rely on abortion as contraception?  

Number of abortions in US falls to lowest since 1973

NEW YORK (AP) — The number and rate of abortions across the United States have plunged to their lowest levels since the procedure became legal nationwide in 1973, according to new figures released Wednesday.

 

The report from the Guttmacher Institute, a research group that supports abortion rights, counted 862,000 abortions in the U.S. in 2017. That’s down from 926,000 tallied in the group’s previous report for 2014, and from just over 1 million counted for 2011.

Guttmacher is the only entity that strives to count all abortions in the U.S., making inquiries of individual providers. Federal data compiled by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention excludes California, Maryland and New Hampshire.

 

The new report illustrates that abortions are decreasing in all parts of the country, whether in Republican-controlled states seeking to restrict abortion access or in Democratic-run states protecting abortion rights. Between 2011 and 2017, abortion rates increased in only five states and the District of Columbia.

 

One reason for the decline in abortions is that fewer women are becoming pregnant. The Guttmacher Institute noted that the birth rate, as well as the abortion rate, declined during the years covered by the new report. A likely factor, the report said, is increased accessibility of contraception since 2011, as the Affordable Care Act required most private health insurance plans to cover contraceptives without out-of-pocket costs.

 

According to the report, the 2017 abortion rate was 13.5 abortions per 1,000 women aged 15-44 — the lowest rate since the Supreme Court’s 1973 Roe v. Wade decision legalizing abortion. Following that ruling, the number of abortions in the U.S. rose steadily — peaking at 1.6 million in 1990 before starting a steady, still-continuing decline. The abortion rate is now less than half what is was in 1990.

 

Guttmacher noted that almost 400 state laws restricting abortion access were enacted between 2011 and 2017, but it said these laws were not the main force behind the overall decline in abortions. It said 57% of the nationwide decline occurred in the 18 states, plus the District of Columbia, that did not enact any new restrictions.

 

Between 2011 and 2017, the number of clinics providing abortion in the U.S. declined from 839 to 808, with significant regional disparities, the report said. The South had a decline of 50 clinics, including 25 in Texas, and the Midwest had a decline of 33 clinics, including nine each in Iowa, Michigan and Ohio. By contrast, the Northeast added 59 clinics, mostly in New Jersey and New York.

 

Over that period, the abortion rate dropped in Ohio by 27% and in Texas by 30%, but the rate dropped by similar amounts in states that protected abortion access, including California, Hawaii and New Hampshire.

 

Areas with the highest abortion rates in 2017 were the District of Columbia, New Jersey, New York, Maryland and Florida. Rates were lowest in Wyoming, South Dakota, Kentucky, Idaho and Missouri — many women from those five states go out of state to obtain abortions .

 

One significant trend documented in the report: people who have abortions are increasingly relying on medication rather than surgery. Medication abortion, making use of the so-called abortion pill, accounted for 39% of all abortions in 2017, up from 29% in 2014.....

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Did you even read your C&P?

 

One reason for the decline in abortions is that fewer women are becoming pregnant. The Guttmacher Institute noted that the birth rate, as well as the abortion rate, declined during the years covered by the new report. A likely factor, the report said, is increased accessibility of contraception since 2011, as the Affordable Care Act required most private health insurance plans to cover contraceptives without out-of-pocket costs.

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Herd a story on the radio news that says one major factor is that fewer women are actually getting pregnant.   Increased access to birth control and what not.

 

Regardless, numbers down, all good.   

 

 

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13 hours ago, KnewBee said:

The ACA effect...

 

13 hours ago, KnewBee said:

Herd a story on the radio news that says one major factor is that fewer women are actually getting pregnant.   Increased access to birth control and what not.

 

Regardless, numbers down, all good.   

ACA is mentioned in the pasted article, you did read it, right? 

 

Again, as I said, I do not dispute the reasons listed in the article, I just wondered if the long-discussed Roe Effect was at play.

 

This is not like someone is looking at these results and trying to create a theory out of thin air now, contemporaneously, to make an ideological argument. Taranto was talking about the RE nearly 20 years ago, before the ACA, before kids are having less sex, etc. 

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14 hours ago, The Dude said:

Did you even read your C&P?

 

One reason for the decline in abortions is that fewer women are becoming pregnant. The Guttmacher Institute noted that the birth rate, as well as the abortion rate, declined during the years covered by the new report. A likely factor, the report said, is increased accessibility of contraception since 2011, as the Affordable Care Act required most private health insurance plans to cover contraceptives without out-of-pocket costs.

BS. It's a combination of generation Zyklon being more conservative and the importation of s*itholies that refuse abortion skewing the math. They might vote Democrat but they ain't Democrats like you want them to be. 

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14 hours ago, KnewBee said:

Herd a story on the radio news that says one major factor is that fewer women are actually getting pregnant.   Increased access to birth control and what not.

 

Regardless, numbers down, all good.   

 

 

And isn’t the changing rate of youth opting in to traditional marriage—>children norm a societal shift that would affect the pregnancy rate?

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This is excellent news to me, of course.  I think women are generally having fewer children, more are availing themselves of birth control but I believe the biggest reason is the advent of sonograms.  The big lie of "clump of cells" has been overturned.  There isn't even that fig leaf anymore.  And I read that 90%+ of women who see a sonogram of their own "fetus" (latin for Little One) opt to have the child.  Much harder to kill when you see the arms, legs, head, movement, thumb sucking, etc.

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4 mins ago, saltydawg said:

And isn’t the changing rate of youth opting in to traditional marriage—>children norm a societal shift that would affect the pregnancy rate?

Pew;

 

"Half of Americans ages 18 and older were married in 2017, a share that has remained relatively stable in recent years but is down 8 percentage points since 1990. One factor driving this change is that Americans are staying single longer. The median age at first marriage had reached its highest point on record: 30 years for men and 28 years for women in 2018, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.

As the U.S. marriage rate has declined, divorce rates have increased among older Americans. In 2015, for every 1,000 married adults ages 50 and older, 10 had divorced – up from five in 1990. Among those ages 65 and older, the divorce rate roughly tripled since 1990."

 

Abortion numbers peaked in 1991. 

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From the Atlantic: 

 

“To the relief of many parents, educators, and clergy members who care about the health and well-being of young people, teens are launching their sex lives later. From 1991 to 2017, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s Youth Risk Behavior Survey finds, the percentage of high-school students who’d had intercourse dropped from 54 to 40 percent. In other words, in the space of a generation, sex has gone from something most high-school students have experienced to something most haven’t. (And no, they aren’t having oral sex instead—that rate hasn’t changed much.)”

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 Juxtapose this trend, along with the concept of the Roe Effect, against the fight regarding the supreme court. Also, against the most radical pro-abortion arguments that call for abortion up to the moment of birth, or beyond. 

 

As abortions go down in absolute number and in the rate, they influence a smaller portion of society. That means, that fewer and fewer women will feel that abortion restrictions are actually restrictions that could impact them personally. It becomes less of a concern. 

 

I suspect that the radical left and the abortion-political complex understand all of this. That is why they are desperate to prevent Roe v. Wade even coming up at the supreme court. And failing that, to somehow invalidate an overturn of Roe in the minds of Americans, by attacking the justices themselves on a personal level.

 

 As I have argued for years in the gun rights versus gun control debates, those who actually stand to lose something that they value are far more motivated to fight against any coming restrictions. Gun owners are always going to feel more passionate about the loss of their gun rights than are gun control advocates foe whom the issue is far more ephemeral. As abortion has a smaller and smaller direct impact on women, I suspect the same thing may be at play, a waning of support as the percentage of those who could be impacted directly and personally decreases. 

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So we are all in agreement that society is changing, views are changing and straight-line extrapolation is never a good idea in the ideological battles? 

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5 mins ago, tomkaz said:

So we are all in agreement that society is changing, views are changing and straight-line extrapolation is never a good idea in the ideological battles? 

Not entirely correct, conservatism is based on sound fundamentals that have stood the test of time, progressivism with its constant fluidity lacks sound fundamentals.

 

Put graphically, conservatism is built on rock, progressivism is built on quicksand.

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9 mins ago, tomkaz said:

agreement that society is changing, views are changing and straight-line extrapolation is never a good idea in the ideological battles? 

I am. 

My two cents- Kids and older teens are also in a digital and virtual age. Groups and party's are not what they used to be. Not as much "physical/present" inter-action. They are more content to "hang out" online. 

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