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Hurricane season

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Heard this thing is supposed to meander offshore when it gets up north and hit either the Canadian Maritimes or far eastern Maine...and while we (here in MA) will be spared the more destructive stuff, it'll slop up the waters for a while

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4 hours ago, albacized said:

Heard this thing is supposed to meander offshore when it gets up north and hit either the Canadian Maritimes or far eastern Maine...and while we (here in MA) will be spared the more destructive stuff, it'll slop up the waters for a while

Good news is, we have a week until any potential surf and slop from Dorian get here. But that's assuming a ton (with respect to its future track) at this time range.

 

##

 

Dorian underwent a period of rapid intensification this afternoon and now bordering on Category 4 windspeed.

 

Subtleties in the track forecast are of enormous consequence for Florida, and points north. We're talking differences of 50 miles here. Does the eyewall of the storm make it inland? Scrape the coast? Or stay just offshore of the Florida peninsula-- then drift north toward the SE US Coast?

 

All of this is literally up in the air right now. 

 

If you're interested in an extended technical discussion of what's going with the storm, here's Levi Cowen's analysis for this evening.

 

 

 

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Current thinking keeps the dangerous core of the storm completely offshore of Florida.

Screenshot_20190831-072208_Chrome.jpg.349afd328678b25b8905bdd4241e29df.jpg

Thereafter, a slow weakening trend should commence before approaching the SE coast ..somewhere in the vicinity of SC. That said, we're talking next Thursday for that, and track errors at 5 days out are historically 200miles... so it remains to be seen what happens after the storm moves north off the Florida coast.

 

Any highly degraded remnants could pass by the NE region next weekend, if at all.

 

 

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Posted (edited) · Report post

What I just saw on the link I posted, early models have it at Hatteras then way out to sea. That was as of 6AM today:

 

dorian2.png.34c92cd06f722d9ab19d9da9e860bb87.png

 

If I run the late models, it is pretty much the same.

 

I sure hope so cause a week from today, I will be on my way to the New Jersey Coast for a week at the beach with my wife.........

Edited by Steve in Mass

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Yes, this is the general idea at this time. But models are notoriously erroneous at long time ranges. So being a week away, the track error is likely to be hundreds of miles. Could be close by, could be hundreds of miles offshore, transitioning into an extra tropical cyclone. (From a warm core hurricane, to cold core nor'Easter type storm). Irregardless, the possibility for increased swells impacting the fishing grounds starting mid week should be considered.

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Kind of a neat graphic.

savetweetvid_EDTUKESWsAEBOz2.gif.dc96c16629e1c8f3b3b947bde82d39d9.gif

Gif shows how the huge waves from Dorian upwell cooler deeper water in the wake of the storm. When a storm slows markedly, or stalls, this cold water upwelling becomes a factor in cutting off the storm's fuel supply. Slow storms and "stallers" typically weaken a bit from this phenomenon.

 

But... there is the Gulf Stream. It is a 50mile wide river of extremely deep warmth, (100m), so if the hurricane stalls directly over the GS, upwelling becomes much less of a factor.

 

Will be offshore tuna-ing the next 3 days, and out of cell range, so any future changes with the storm will be news to me until I get back. Hopefully the track continues to stay off Florida, as this one'll be a real doozy just off the coast. Not so lucky are the Bahamas, who look to get flattened.

 

 

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15 mins ago, rst3 said:

Kind of a neat graphic.

savetweetvid_EDTUKESWsAEBOz2.gif.dc96c16629e1c8f3b3b947bde82d39d9.gif

Gif shows how the huge waves from Dorian upwell cooler deeper water in the wake of the storm. When a storm slows markedly, or stalls, this cold water upwelling becomes a factor in cutting off the storm's fuel supply. Slow storms and "stallers" typically weaken a bit from this phenomenon.

 

But... there is the Gulf Stream. It is a 50mile wide river of extremely deep warmth, (100m), so if the hurricane stalls directly over the GS, upwelling becomes much less of a factor.

 

Will be offshore tuna-ing the next 3 days, and out of cell range, so any future changes with the storm will be news to me until I get back. Hopefully the track continues to stay off Florida, as this one'll be a real doozy just off the coast. Not so lucky are the Bahamas, who look to get flattened.

 

 

Yup, Andros, Cat Island and Eleuthera have a problem. Those poor people are on their own.

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1 hour ago, rst3 said:

Yes, this is the general idea at this time. But models are notoriously erroneous at long time ranges. So being a week away, the track error is likely to be hundreds of miles. Could be close by, could be hundreds of miles offshore, transitioning into an extra tropical cyclone. (From a warm core hurricane, to cold core nor'Easter type storm). Irregardless, the possibility for increased swells impacting the fishing grounds starting mid week should be considered.

You have a surface map showing high pressure centers?

 

From what I heard this AM, the main reason for the change in track is that the large high pressure center in the middle of the Atlantic is moving away/breaking down. That is what was originally pushing it to cross Florida.

 

Now the low has to slide up between what is left of that and and high that may be in, oh say, the Ohio Valley or east of that....that high could steer it out to sea depending on how strong it is and how fast it comes toward the coast from the west.

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32 mins ago, Steve in Mass said:

You have a surface map showing high pressure centers?

 

From what I heard this AM, the main reason for the change in track is that the large high pressure center in the middle of the Atlantic is moving away/breaking down. That is what was originally pushing it to cross Florida.

 

Now the low has to slide up between what is left of that and and high that may be in, oh say, the Ohio Valley or east of that....that high could steer it out to sea depending on how strong it is and how fast it comes toward the coast from the west.

Not handy. Currently on way to marina to get ready for tuna fishing, so can't dig out out. I would direct you to the YouTube link I posted last evening for an in-depth explanation of the atmospheric factors in charge of steering Dorian over the next couple of days. The video covers everything from a technical perspective on how and why the storm is expected to move. Also, that YouTube channel (Levi Cowen) will post another update this evening, so check it out after say,  9pm, to get his updated explanation based on the most recent data to come in.

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Hurricane Dorian has likely reached its westernmost position with respect to Florida. Now, as the stall ends, it will begin making its way into the northern latitudes.

 

First up is the SE Coast, where the storm will get precariously close to northern SC and NC. That said, an offshore track remains slightly more probable than not for those locations. At least according to the models. 

 

After that Dorian will undergo extratropical transition to a powerful nor'Easter type storm, likely as it passes well to the south of Nantucket.

Screenshot_20190902-191657_Twitter.jpg.96c8d514c619cf3276e820d1ff780b55.jpg

 

But for us here in New England, we're by no means out of the woods with respect to Dorian. The broadening wind field as it spins down will push heavy seas into all of New England proper on Fri and into early this weekend. Near impossible boating conditions as well as dangerous shore break are likely to occur.

 

Heres the marine forecast for off of New Hampshire on Friday. 

Screenshot_20190902-110452_Chrome.jpg.cd48fe55da2f117a6fff2cd18a3e91ae.jpg

 

For those interested in a technical explanation of Dorian over the next several days, here's Levi Cowen's latest update 

 

 

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Dorian is finally on the move north, as a 110mph Category 2. Cold water upwelling while stalled over the Bahamas was one factor that contributed to the decline in intensity.

 

Much of what existed before, in the Bahamas, was largely obliterated.

Screenshot_20190903-173525_Twitter.jpg.17e7cb2349f8ffebc12e127aa707212a.jpgScreenshot_20190903-173418_Twitter.jpg.a77ad16aef318d137a0bd2f4b97fb48c.jpg

 

So what's next for Dorian?

 

Well, it's now over fresh warm water, with fairly low atmospheric vertical shear, so further declines in intensity are not anticipated in the short term. As for re-strengthening: Dorian has spun out and expanded/broadened its wind field, and sports a large eye. Typically, these spread out "mature" storms find it tougher to substantially ramp up and tighten up again. Though some re-strengthening is certainly not off the table.

 

Impact:

The SE coast looks to get grazed by the storm, just offshore, with NC closest to the crosshairs. This will be a very close call.

5d6ede288c93a_Screenshot_20190903-173252_SamsungInternet.jpg.8f20377f5200b8d9cf9c5cf0178f3554.jpg

5d6ede309dee8_Screenshot_20190903-173147_SamsungInternet.jpg.bc0ebcc12fce6c284aa3ca3e98658ee3.jpg

 

152656_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png.fb89761362e034c3a36fca46afb55d59.pngScreenshot_20190903-172647_Twitter.jpg.8a7b464eeb1e6c40fbab346cc7f63d54.jpg

 

As for NE... the hurricane will likely zip on by as a Category 1, well to the south of Nantucket, sometime overnight Friday or perhaps early Saturday. I'm somewhat doubtful significant winds will extend into the Cape, though Nantucket may get a little gusty. Despite the absence of substantial winds, swells should begin to impact coastal areas as the storm nears and then passes by.

 

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Those upwelling graphics are great!

I was wondering, with a storm pushing up the coast, if this drives southern fish, like Albie, further north,

I realize NE winds drive them back home, but the tropical wave may be opportunities.

Thoughts?

 

 

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I dont think tropical systems drive fish north, but do know they can displace southern birds, which get caught in the raging eyewall and shelter in the calm eye

This is a phenomenon that has been fairly well documented.

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Overview of hurricane for this evening.

 

Bottom line: Dorian looks a little better organized this evening, even for a spun out mature hurricane. It will rake the Carolinas over the next 24hrs, then head NorthEast out to sea, south of New England 

 

 

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