Tailslap

Hurricane season

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OK looks like we might as well kick this off. Looks like a potential CAT 3 or greater storm is heading towards Florida. Up our way looks to be protected by a large ridge that will form and block the storm from coming north. Hopefully our favorite weatherman will chime in here.

Edited by Tailslap

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Not sure who you're speaking of...:)... but if you need a long-winded storm report, I'm happy to fill in for the guy!

 

Yes, that's exactly right. The dome of high pressure to the storm's north is like a mountain it can't drive over. So we're protected here in NE.

 

Instead, storms travel around the edge/periphery of high pressure cells, and meteorologists look for these edges to determine where the hurricane can begin to turn north.

 

Couple quick points:

 

Hurricanes are tremendously powerful, but sissies when it comes to two things: dry air, and shear.

 

Dry air flowing into the storm guts the thunderstorms, depriving them of fuel. and even something as little as 20kts of shear can cripple a category 5.

 

So we always look at the shear forecast and the humidity forecast in the regions a cyclone moves into. If the shear is low, and the atmosphere humid? Well that's a recipe for the storm to take advantage of the warm ocean waters below it.

 

But rather than go on ad infinitum, I'll just turn it over to Levi Cowen, who is my favorite weather nerd when it comes to tropical cyclones.

 

Here's his report for this evening. Yes it's a little technical, but also highly watchable. So if you're interested in learning more than what the mega-Corp weather guys give you on TV, then Levi's your guy:

 

 

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Quick follow up 

Reasons why meteorologists think Dorian will be a strong to perhaps very strong hurricane as it nears the Florida coast 

1) Plenty of warm water? Check.

Screenshot_20190829-011510_Twitter.jpg.57a7e2b38e59429aae1ad63db6a1ddde.jpg

 

2) Humid atmosphere, with no dry air close by? Check.

Screenshot_20190829-011603_Twitter.jpg.8717a7c29d9937b44571d7d7f5703f7d.jpg

 

3) Low wind shear levels? Check.

Screenshot_20190829-011535_Twitter.jpg.1e0a84406bbbf71dcd413c0f17a6342a.jpg

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3 hours ago, rst3 said:

Not sure who you're speaking of...:)... but if you need a long-winded storm report, I'm happy to fill in for the guy!

 

Yes, that's exactly right. The dome of high pressure to the storm's north is like a mountain it can't drive over. So we're protected here in NE.

 

Instead, storms travel around the edge/periphery of high pressure cells, and meteorologists look for these edges to determine where the hurricane can begin to turn north.

 

Couple quick points:

 

Hurricanes are tremendously powerful, but sissies when it comes to two things: dry air, and shear.

 

Dry air flowing into the storm guts the thunderstorms, depriving them of fuel. and even something as little as 20kts of shear can cripple a category 5.

 

So we always look at the shear forecast and the humidity forecast in the regions a cyclone moves into. If the shear is low, and the atmosphere humid? Well that's a recipe for the storm to take advantage of the warm ocean waters below it.

 

But rather than go on ad infinitum, I'll just turn it over to Levi Cowen, who is my favorite weather nerd when it comes to tropical cyclones.

 

Here's his report for this evening. Yes it's a little technical, but also highly watchable. So if you're interested in learning more than what the mega-Corp weather guys give you on TV, then Levi's your guy:

 

 

Thanks for the link. Great presentation! As a fellow meteorologist I found that highly valuable. Excellent analysis. 

Lee

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51 mins ago, R.R. Bridge Fisher said:

When will any effects of this make an impact on our coast?

New moon friday:hooked:

They're saying not until next weekend...Sept. 6-7th

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Looking at model guidance developing today and we see some marked uncertainty amongst the spaghettios: there are two camps on this one.

 

> Impacts Florida peninsula and stalls

-or-

>> Turns north and only scrapes coast/misses FLA entirely

savetweetvid_EDJdlGCWkAIj9N2.gif.b30d4af2bbb0f7d5986cc1f27e827b38.gif

The strength of the subtropical ridge to the storms north will dictate where the edge of the ridge ends up, and where the hurricane can begin to make its turn. A stronger ridge plows the storm into Florida; a weaker ridge may present an opening on its western flank for the storm to sneak north early

 

More atmospheric sampling by the hurricane hunter aircraft will be added to data coming in from satellite observations to help resolve this discrepancy over the next 24-36hrs

 

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my neighbor was flying down to boca on tuesday for the week. i suggested he might want to reconsider. like a true floridian used to these storms, hes taking a wait and see attitude. 

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1 hour ago, Steve in Mass said:

As of midnight. White line is model consensus, numbers are hours from midnight that just passed.

 

 

Dorian.png.1a7908beaa62f6fde78eacc7a4bf74ce.png

That does not look good 

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2 hours ago, bdowning said:

my neighbor was flying down to boca on tuesday for the week. i suggested he might want to reconsider. like a true floridian used to these storms, hes taking a wait and see attitude. 

You only get use to the near misses. Living in punta Gorda when hurricane Charlie hit watching my roof tear off windows blown in and trees crashing onto the house is something you never get use to. We all have the I'm gonna ride it out perspective until your in the eye of one. Including me and why I was still in the house when it hit. Looked like a war zone for months 

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Posted (edited) · Report post

3 hours ago, JBA said:

That does not look good 

Well, this thing is changing tracks all the time. The latest models (6AM today) have it doing this:

 

Dorian.png.5853c8c63d5a38c61e5ca8dfe8ff0ef2.png

 

This is just the few latest models so doesn't go out the full 9 days as I only ran the late (most current) models for this picture.

 

I am getting them from this interactive site where you can pick and choose what you want to see:

 

http://hurricanecity.com/models/models.cgi?basin=al&year=2019&storm=05&display=google_map&latestrun=1

 

You can pick particular models, all the late models, all the early models or any combo, and also pick how you want it displayed. Pretty cool site.

 

 

Edited by Steve in Mass

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There's no question Dorian is going to be a problem. Kind of like area 51 on a moon tide with macks and bass in the vicinity. So a big storm is pretty much guaranteed.

 

The question that remains is whether the eyewall crawls up the coast offshore, onshore, or inland. 

 

The difference here between getting flattened and getting brushed is like 50miles. Still way too far out for the models to resolve track differences at the 50mile scale. Typically, 4 days out, the average track error is 155miles.

 

This EURO run here is a brush job.

Screenshot_20190830-153058_Twitter.jpg.bd7def51a4d0c5f2f6b99d501ae0abb6.jpg

But move the storm just 50 miles closer and it's a catastrophe. Like 100 billion dollar disaster, vs like 2

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5 hours ago, alpha baiter said:

You only get use to the near misses. Living in punta Gorda when hurricane Charlie hit watching my roof tear off windows blown in and trees crashing onto the house is something you never get use to. We all have the I'm gonna ride it out perspective until your in the eye of one. Including me and why I was still in the house when it hit. Looked like a war zone for months 

I'm with ya. Unfortunately a lot of people learn it the hard way, if they learn at all. 

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Dorian is supposed to reach Cat 4 strengthen as it passes over the Bahamas islands of Eleuthera, Cat Island and Andros.  I've been on both Cat and Eleuthera months after hurricanes, and they were still cleaning be up from hurricanes that hit a couple years before. 

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