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More hopeful polling data

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"Trump’s State-by-State Approval Ratings Should Scare the MAGA Out of Him"  New Yorker Magazine Intelligencer.

 

There has been a lot of discussion in political circles about Donald Trump’s job-approval ratings, what they portend, and Trump’s Electoral College strategy for 2020, which doesn’t necessarily require a popular-vote plurality. But in the end, of course, the conjunction of the Electoral College with Trump’s state-by-state popularity is where the deal will go down.

 

The online polling firm Civiqs has published a new set of State-by-State job approval ratings for Trump as of August 11, and it shows how the president’s overall standing (a 43 percent approval rating nationally, which happens to match the current RealClearPolitics  polling average) might translate into electorate votes. It’s not a pretty picture for the president, to put it mildly.

 

Civiqs shows the president’s net approval ratios being underwater (i.e., negative) in 10 states he carried in 2016: Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas, and Wisconsin. If that were to represent how the 2020 elections turn out, Trump would have a booming 119 electoral votes. And it’s not as though he’s on a knife’s edge between victory and defeat in all these Trump 2016 states where he’s doing poorly: He’s underwater by 12 points in Pennsylvania, 11 in Michigan, and nine in Arizona, North Carolina, and Wisconsin. And there’s virtually no indication that states that narrowly went for Clinton in 2016 are trending in Trump’s direction: His approval ratios are minus 18 in Colorado, minus 15 in Minnesota, minus 12 in Nevada, and minus 27 in New Hampshire. These are, by the way, polls of registered voters, not just “adults,” so they should be a relatively sound reflection of the views of the electorate.

 

In case you just don’t trust this particular pollster, the other publicly available survey of state-by-state presidential job approval is from Morning Consult, and its latest numbers (as of July) are pretty similar. They show Georgia and Texas as positive for Trump, and North Carolina as very close. But all the other “battleground states” are quite the reach for the incumbent..."

 

Not a matter of "trust" in the polling, more just heartening news in my opinion.

 

Any bets on accuracy of the articles premise?  

 

Landslide? A dream scenario indeed. 

 

 

12-electoral-map-2020_w700_h700.jpg

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But seriously - the map highlights a major problem for America.  As the Dems flood TX and FL with more illegals, it won't be too long before those states succumb to free stuff Democrat votes forever.  Just like CA.

 

Once you lose those two states, it will be almost impossible for an "R" to win the EC ever again.

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I hope Trump loses to a superior candidate...but that's obviously assuming that one declares between now and the deadline. 

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56 mins ago, Maine Guide said:

But seriously - the map highlights a major problem for America.  As the Dems flood TX and FL with more illegals, it won't be too long before those states succumb to free stuff Democrat votes forever.  Just like CA.

 

Once you lose those two states, it will be almost impossible for an "R" to win the EC ever again.

"Some see a problem while others see a solution".  Perspective.    

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52 mins ago, EBHarvey said:

a poll that says trump will definitely lose huh?

"State-by-State job approval ratings for Trump" leads to the hypothesis.  The "poll" does not say "trump will definitely lose", 

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38 mins ago, GuiltyAsCharged said:

That is a reprint of the 2016 poll. 

As President, Trump did not have a job approval rating in 2016.   

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