KnewBee

Here's the most important number in Trump's re-election bid

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1 min ago, zak-striper said:

We ain't making any more of Trump's base, aka old, angry white racists.

 

It's almost another 1 1/2 years till the election. Based on simple statistics he'll lose quite a few of his base by attrition, aka death.

 

These guys ->

 

old.jpg.b2567dee84948443c06b4b536c388406.jpg

↑↑↑↑ - Thinks (been told) DJT's base in only only angry white people - ↑↑↑↑

-

I was right before the election in 2016 and I'll be correct about what I've said here in 2020; DJT wins by a larger margin, emotionally infantile folks like yourself will continue to groan and moan.

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1 hour ago, KnewBee said:

Article From NBC news.   Posting for Tom and Maine (especially for Maine as this is a C&P with commentary in my own words.  Psssst, those come after the quotes)). Bold added for emphasis.

 

"Here's the most important number in Trump's re-election bid"

 

WASHINGTON — "Notice a common number — or thereabouts — in the latest national NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll?

 

Trump’s percentage against Joe Biden in a hypothetical matchup: 42 percent.

 

His percentage against Bernie Sanders: 43 percent.

 

His percentage against Elizabeth Warren: 43 percent.

 

His percentage against Kamala Harris: 44 percent.

 

His job-approval rating: 45 percent.

 

And just to expand on this exercise, Trump’s job rating exactly a year ago in the NBC/WSJ poll was — you guessed it — 45 percent.

Ditto his job rating in the exit poll for the 2018 midterms.

It’s a reminder of how constant Trump’s numbers are, despite the always-changing news cycle … how similar Trump’s ballot numbers are to his job rating … and how perilous his political standing is given the overall state of the U.S. economy.

 

...And as we saw in 2016, a person can still win the electoral college by getting just 46 percent of the popular vote.

But don’t lose sight of just how unpopular the president of the United States is — and has been."

 

 

Basically:   Trump's numbers have remained relatively consistent.  He is not winning over more 'base" support and may even be loosing some independents as a result of reckless tweets.  Maybe ?  There is a very strong effort to get the Womens vote out and Trump's campaign is worried about the Womens in PA.

 

 

Then there is this:

 

"Data Download: The number of the day is … +1

 

That was Barack Obama’s margin versus Mitt Romney in the August 2011 NBC/WSJ poll – taken in the aftermath of the debt-ceiling fight with Congress.

Obama had the support of 46 percent of registered voters in that national poll, while Romney got 45 percent in that hypothetical general-election matchup.

Compare that with President Donald Trump’s deficits – at nearly this same point in time – versus Joe Biden (-9), Bernie Sanders (-7), Elizabeth Warren (-5) and Kamala Harris (-1) in the latest NBC/WSJ poll.

By the way, Obama ultimately beat Romney by 4 points in the 2012 general, 51 percent to 47 percent."

 

 

Question:     Can Trump increase his support before the election?    Based on the nearly consistent numbers after three years, the dreadful tweets, the precarious tariff situation, and the GOP lack of any replacement to the ACA,  I say no and I hope to see him replaced.

 

 

Very thought provoking , cited your source, but still wrong..,.:..

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5 mins ago, nalu22 said:

↑↑↑↑ - Thinks (been told) DJT's base in only only angry white people - ↑↑↑↑

-

I was right before the election in 2016 and I'll be correct about what I've said here in 2020; DJT wins by a larger margin, emotionally infantile folks like yourself will continue to groan and moan.

he conveniently forgot that a majority of white women did as they were told by their husband and voted for Trump too

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Posted (edited) · Report post

8 mins ago, nalu22 said:

I was right before the election in 2016 and I'll be correct about what I've said here in 2020; DJT wins by a larger margin, emotionally infantile folks like yourself will continue to groan and moan.

We have another 1 1/2 years of Agolf Twittler being a huge donkey's arse while pissing off a lot of people. Then we have the presidential debates where he'll continue to be a huge donkey's arse.  Then there's Mueller's house testimony, the ongoing Epstein affair (which Twittler's latest racist tweet storm has nicely buried), Trump's taxes getting released and so on and so on.

 

A LOT can, and will happen, between now and the election. It's safe odds, whatever happens until then, will only be more negative baggage for the Hater-in-Chief.

Edited by zak-striper

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OK, as discussed previously:  

 

1) National head-to-head polls at this point mean nothing of value for a race 15 months out. 

 

2) Trump’s current approval level is about where he was on Election Day 2016. 

 

3) Other academic studies show the most important numbers in a RE-Election is the economic landscape in the months prior to an election. 

 

4) Bradley Effect may get renamed the Trump Effect. 

 

The above is meaningless. 

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1 hour ago, KnewBee said:

Article From NBC news.   Posting for Tom and Maine (especially for Maine as this is a C&P with commentary in my own words.  Psssst, those come after the quotes)). Bold added for emphasis.

 

"Here's the most important number in Trump's re-election bid"

 

WASHINGTON — "Notice a common number — or thereabouts — in the latest national NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll?

 

Trump’s percentage against Joe Biden in a hypothetical matchup: 42 percent.

 

His percentage against Bernie Sanders: 43 percent.

 

His percentage against Elizabeth Warren: 43 percent.

 

His percentage against Kamala Harris: 44 percent.

 

His job-approval rating: 45 percent.

 

And just to expand on this exercise, Trump’s job rating exactly a year ago in the NBC/WSJ poll was — you guessed it — 45 percent.

Ditto his job rating in the exit poll for the 2018 midterms.

It’s a reminder of how constant Trump’s numbers are, despite the always-changing news cycle … how similar Trump’s ballot numbers are to his job rating … and how perilous his political standing is given the overall state of the U.S. economy.

 

...And as we saw in 2016, a person can still win the electoral college by getting just 46 percent of the popular vote.

But don’t lose sight of just how unpopular the president of the United States is — and has been."

 

 

Basically:   Trump's numbers have remained relatively consistent.  He is not winning over more 'base" support and may even be loosing some independents as a result of reckless tweets.  Maybe ?  There is a very strong effort to get the Womens vote out and Trump's campaign is worried about the Womens in PA.

 

 

Then there is this:

 

"Data Download: The number of the day is … +1

 

That was Barack Obama’s margin versus Mitt Romney in the August 2011 NBC/WSJ poll – taken in the aftermath of the debt-ceiling fight with Congress.

Obama had the support of 46 percent of registered voters in that national poll, while Romney got 45 percent in that hypothetical general-election matchup.

Compare that with President Donald Trump’s deficits – at nearly this same point in time – versus Joe Biden (-9), Bernie Sanders (-7), Elizabeth Warren (-5) and Kamala Harris (-1) in the latest NBC/WSJ poll.

By the way, Obama ultimately beat Romney by 4 points in the 2012 general, 51 percent to 47 percent."

 

 

Question:     Can Trump increase his support before the election?    Based on the nearly consistent numbers after three years, the dreadful tweets, the precarious tariff situation, and the GOP lack of any replacement to the ACA,  I say no and I hope to see him replaced.

 

 

There is nothing important about anything regarding Trump relative to the Democrat candidates at this point. There is no nominee yet and there have been no debates, furthermore the election is 16 months away.

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23 mins ago, zak-striper said:

We have another 1 1/2 years of Agolf Twittler being a huge donkey's arse while pissing off a lot of people. Then we have the presidential debates where he'll continue to be a huge donkey's arse.  Then there's Mueller's house testimony, the ongoing Epstein affair (which Twittler's latest racist tweet storm has nicely buried), Trump's taxes getting released and so on and so on.

 

A LOT can, and will happen, between now and the election. It's safe odds, whatever happens until then, will only be more negative baggage for the Hater-in-Chief.

-

I hope Mueller Time testifies and has to answer questions...my money says he won't end up testifying though.

 

Until then keep TDSing, it's fun to watch.

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29 mins ago, jkrock said:

he conveniently forgot that a majority of white women did as they were told by their husband and voted for Trump too

Now that mine is finally a US citizen, I can tell her whom to vote for, more winning! - :laugh:

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Posted (edited) · Report post

31 mins ago, nalu22 said:

TDSing

Not at all. I have too many things going  on to give a rats arse about Agolf Twittler.

 

However, it is fun to rain on the PG hate & intolerance parade...just sayin'.

Edited by zak-striper

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2 mins ago, zak-striper said:

Not at all. I have too many things going to give a rats arse about Agolf Twittler.

 

However, it is fun to rain on the PG hate & intolerance parade...just sayin'.

Rain on parade? With meaningless polling data that has no bearing to anyone but liberal headline writers and the TDS afflicted. 

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3 mins ago, tomkaz said:

Rain on parade? With meaningless polling data that has no bearing to anyone but liberal headline writers and the TDS afflicted. 

Just the PG as a whole. It's the safe space and echo chamber for deplorables. It's fun it rain on it once in a while. When the deplorables get a little too comfortable with their non-stop "brown skinned people bad" or "gays bad" or "mooslums bad" it's fun to lay a big old stinky fart in your church of hate.

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Posted (edited) · Report post

8 mins ago, zak-striper said:

Just the PG as a whole. It's the safe space and echo chamber for deplorables. It's fun it rain on it once in a while. When the deplorables get a little too comfortable with their non-stop "brown skinned people bad" or "gays bad" or "mooslums bad" it's fun to lay a big old stinky fart in your church of hate.

-

When using quotations “ “ it’s meant for things actually said, but don’t let your fantasies get in your way.

Edited by nalu22

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16 mins ago, RiverRaider said:

 

That EC stuff is soooo last month :rolleyes:

I thought that was abolished already??

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