ChuckieP

Will this mild winter mean a strong early striper bite, if so how early?

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Pretty tough to plan on that.  A lot depends on the early Spring weather, if it stays colder as we get into spring the water will stay colder, the fish will lag.  

 

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I'm betting on an early spring and few fish. Not just in Mass, but the whole striper coast. 

 

We'll be doing sea robin and bergall tournaments soon enough.  Or are they cunners in Mass?

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Personally, I doubt it. It hasn't been "record breaking" warm like 2012. Just mild.

 

Rats will show in SNE by 3rd week in April. Better fish 2 wks later. Then the main push of post-spawners sometime after mother's day in May. Maybe 3rd wk or so. Happens more years than not. 

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18 mins ago, BrianBM said:

I'm betting on an early spring and few fish. Not just in Mass, but the whole striper coast. 

 

We'll be doing sea robin and bergall tournaments soon enough.  Or are they cunners in Mass?

yea... cunners...

 

maybe an early spring for bass (?) the way the winter has been going but right... what's "coming" regardless (?)

 

def lots of sea robins in ny (n shore and s shore).  don't they have a sea robin tournament on the north shore of li already (?).

 

hell.. we had an over abundance of juvenile bonito and some banded rudder fish outer cape last fall.  who needs bass anyway (?).   albies have been good the past couple falls.  i miss the bluefish.  i have personally only found lots of small ones s shore of the cape and long island.  anticipating "similar" spring 2019.

 

also - anticipating a good amount of weakies s shore of li and also LOTS of fluke... recent years have been a LOT of fluke (and shad), not ton's of  "keeper" fluke but LOTS.  nothing stupid early or stupid late like last year was.

 

i'm getting my lighter tackle ready for late april s shore weakie, small bluefish and fluke... and maybe some decent back bay school bass action (? population concerns more than seasonal timing) on the fly by late april s shore and early may outer cape.

 

personally, i'm thinking haddock right now and trying to back into what weekend i'll turn the water etc back on so the house is ready and i can tow the boat back out 

 

Edited by nicknotsebastian

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In my experience and based on 20 years of records, Not for stripers.

 

Maybe a few holdovers will stir, but the migratory fish are withing 2-3 days every year pretty much without exception

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31 mins ago, bob_G said:

What Terry said.  Its always 2-3 days either side of Mothers Day in the canal.

What's interesting is that I'm coming to believe the tarpon migration in Florida follows similar clockwork. Really has to be an exceptionally warm or cold year to deviate the fish from showing up on time, about the same time, every single year. Seems fish really go by the sun as much as possible, as it is more reliable than fickle and fast changing weather patterns 

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2 mins ago, rst3 said:

Seems fish really go by the sun as much as possible, as it is more reliable than fickle and fast changing weather patterns 

yup.  fish, birds, plants (fall foliage etc), reindeer, etc...

that, their own natural cycles (weakfish) and, let us not forget, human "management" (fluke)

Edited by nicknotsebastian

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11 hours ago, BrianBM said:

I'm betting on an early spring and few fish. Not just in Mass, but the whole striper coast. 

 

We'll be doing sea robin and bergall tournaments soon enough.  Or are they cunners in Mass?

Brian, your omitting the ever elusive skate.

What Terry said and what Bob and John concur is the large fish and I agree, not much deviation there.

What most people are looking for here is "action with schoolies" and the variance on their arrival can be quite broad. I believe there is an even stronger factor than water temps and that is "abundance". Simply put, when there is a lot of fish they extend both their geographic and their seasonal range.

For example in the early 2000's we had school bass blitzing in Boston Harbor by mid April (in spite of some very brutal winters). The past few years the fish have not shown up until "into May", in spite of warmer winters...…..JC

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Down in south coastal Massachusetts somewhere between April 10th and the 15th I will get my first striper. Doesn't really matter how cold the winter was. Small schoolies and micros.  But I do feel the bigger fish can lag a little behind after a cold winter/spring like last year.  The general consensus last year was about 2 weeks late for big fish in our area. Usually bigger fish for us start last week of April/1st week May. This year didn't get first keepers till May 14th. So I believe the cold does slow the migration to some degree. Not the most important factor but a factor for sure in my mind. 

 

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I'm hoping this milder winter will improve this year's blues fishing. 

 

Last years we had a frigid Jan -Feb, a warm March, then a pretty cold April. The blues barely showed up last year in the spring. Bigger stripers seemed to show up on the late side of normal.

 

A lot can happened in March, big storms, a deep freeze or warm temps. The next 6 weeks of weather will be interesting. 

 

I have the week of April 21st off to fish Quabbin & the 'Chu. If the weather stay as it is, I'll probably try for my 1st saltwater fish as well.

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