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Tailslap

Rst3 Weather Report

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Ok it’s been a slow winter so far but where is rst3 on our first big storm of the season. What’s up with the ice situation. Looks like it could be bad.

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My storm thoughts are on "ice time" thread. But to reiterate you're right: sleet fest with this storm for most of metro-mass. Freezing rain threat in oval below, esp down by Providence.

Screenshot_20190118-160346_Twitter.jpg.f0de57323067b459616c70464eb878d2.jpg

 

More sleet to north of oval^, up to NH border or even north to Manchester in warmest storm scenario.

 

See, there's a warm nose aloft coming north at 5000ft. It melts the snow which then refreezes at lower levels as sleet pellets.

 

Further south, the freezing layer is shallower, so freezing rain becomes more of a threat.

 

 

This type of overall situation is common with "cutters" .. storms that track to our west or even right over us. Need these storms SE of Nantucket passing over the benchmark to get most folks into snowy cold zone for entire storm

 

So: Heavy snow overnight changing to sleet around daybreak for many.

ezgif-3-60ac04aa93fd.gif.c74fa6c9d4d9c5cfa0d5e0dbdf18d20b.gif

 

Arctic blast after storm into Monday

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Just now, TimS said:

You gotta do @rst3 to make sure he's paying attention ;)

 

TimS

Never mind...he was on the ball! :th:

 

TimS

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Lot of moisture coming north with this storm.

Screenshot_20190118-173314_Twitter.jpg.71ba4c185e72e990f7341f89905ca5ec.jpg

Cape takes it on the chin with slop then hvy rain, while areas to north in full cold see well over 1ft of snow

 

Here's the official NWS forecast.

Screenshot_20190118-173415_Twitter.jpg.477b5b6ebc14e3236647b2cc7d9a4bd5.jpg

Much closer to my thoughts than they were yesterday, when their "495 to NW CONNECTICUT belt" totals were much too high, imo, due to hvy sleet knocking down totals. 

 

Should see shovel-able amts of sleet in metro west

 

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Not a powerhouse storm, but already high lunar tides mean minor coastal flooding is to be expected anyway.

Screenshot_20190118-174450_Twitter.jpg.13fabb0c9d42887d89f48ed885a60291.jpg

 

Doubt much erosion on Sandwich, but will have to watch

 

 

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Snowmaggendon turned into icemaggedon :scared:  

 

I'd rather have snow...and I hate snow :o

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High resolution model shows extended time in sleet zone for metro mass all day Sunday.

ezgif-3-a3ba9bc56ead.gif.a058bd038d8db4e5ebcf4d7b7a89ee09.gif

Most snow totals occur deep overnight Sat/Sun, before sleetline moves north after dawn on Sunday

 

 

 

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Posted (edited) · Report post

If folks wonder why all the meteorologists are stressing a sleetstorm, here's why:

 

Atmospheric sounding.

Screenshot_20190118-215350_Twitter.jpg.f1415af8ce97d3ca3fdc2e9d0ceaee4c.jpg

 

Reading this "Skew-T plot" shows the nose of above-freezing temps at 850mb(5000ft) [red oval] which melts the snowflakes that form in the dendritic growth zone higher up. 

PicsArt_01-18-09_59_01.jpg.eae9f1bee72886693f6d6d687cb9714d.jpg

slt2.gif.5cab3f50954eb0b52d9a0ab0d1bdb356.gif

Then as these melted snowflakes fall, they hit the dammed up cold air closer to the ground(blue oval) which refreezes the droplets as sleet.

 

Gotta look at the whole air column for snowstorms. Not just what the temp is at ground level. Kinda like fishing, a whole lot happens beneath the surface at different levels

 

Result of warm nose, cold ground = sleetfest

Over an inch of straight sleet on this model

Screenshot_20190118-222102_Twitter.jpg.d242884c20b64483c187aac246377b99.jpg

 

Edited by rst3
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Freezing rain to me is the worst case scenario. Seems like that is getting trumped by sleet and i hope it stays that way. At least you can shovel sleet. Try shoveling up to a half inch of glaze ice in plunging temps. :scared:

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Posted (edited) · Report post

Luckily the winds dont look too strong with this storm, and areas of tree glazing will be limited by the large area of thick cold at ground level leading to widespread sleet vs. minimal frz rain.

 

But any area that gets into warm sector with rain will flash freeze Sun night as arctic blast moves in.

 

Big storm takeaway/bottom line forecast: quick burst of snow overnight, followed by many hrs of heavy sleet, followed by Arctic pummeling with wind

 

Big takeaway #2: most all meteorologists have lowered their snow totals markedly. Minimal snow totals, maximum sleet storm

Edited by rst3
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They have the south shore in the high 40s tomorrow before the flash freeze. Will there be any accumulation on south shore? Maybe at the end of storm?

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12 mins ago, Tailslap said:

They have the south shore in the high 40s tomorrow before the flash freeze. Will there be any accumulation on south shore? Maybe at the end of storm?

Very little snow overnight tonight. Then sleet then rain for SS. Means ugly wet slop is the main feature for that area. Possible backlash flurries as cold air moves in. But any wet from the rain will ice up quick Sunday night 

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