boscoebrea

Experience vs. Luck

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 I know people come here to "learn" and I know it is said 10% of the fishermen catch 90% of the fish,butt you know those guys use Nets!So you have the right gear ,fishing at the right time and the right tide,.how much luck will it take to catch a Nice Striper?

    Tough question?

I know I have to have some luck to catch a nice Striper,no matter what.

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You can have the right gear, be fishing at the right time and the right tide and if the fish are not there no amount of luck is going to catch you a striper. Even if you got a fancy flathead tool :laugh:

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How many times does it take to flip heads five times in a row?  One in 2000 people will get it on the first try, 1600 people will get it in 2000 tries, 399 people in more tries than that. Just like some people give up on flipping a coin, people run out of fishing days.

 

So I think there is some luck, provided we are talking all fisherman equally skilled as a group.  Flipping a coin takes no skill: so, I would argue the “luck” of all skilled fisherman is the same as a coin flip.

 

Now, if you talk about non-skilled, and this is where all fishermen start, maybe the same as flipping heads 15 times in a row, where 1 person in 30,000 gets it on the first attempt.

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Nothing beats time on the water.....and confidence in what you are doing.

If you fish places enough, you’ll see patterns develop that will lead to your success.

SF

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On 12/27/2018 at 9:39 AM, StripedBasstardz said:

IMO

1.) Skills and knowledge - 70%

2.) Gears - 20%

3.) Luck - 10%

I agree with this statement the most, except mine would be 80-10-10. Going from striper greenhorn in high school & college, where I knew next to nothing about fishing the surf, to where I am at today which I would consider myself proficient to fair at best, in no way am I an expert or pro. Couple of things I have learned with time in my 20+ years fishing for them and am still learning many of these still to this day. 

  • How to read water- troughs, holes, sandbars, rips etc. the more time on the water and visiting the same beach at very low and then at high tides. Beach structure changes, sand moves. Knowing and being able to interpret what the water is telling you is a big part of catching fish. When you do catch a fish at a spot note where and what the structure was if possible. Did the fish strike after you pulled your lure over a sandbar and dropped off into the rip. how far out was the fish on the outter break, right next to shore, was the fish in white water on a sand bar. 
  • What are they eating-match the hatch as they say: sandcrabs, predominate baitfish - sardines, mackerel, anchovies, juvenile jack smelt, etc. Sand worm hatch, pile worms, clams. If and when I do catch one and keep it for the table, stomach is checked everytime to see contents. You can learn a lot from this.  
  • Fish with someone that you consider a better fisherman- Anytime I fish with someone new or someone I would consider a better fisherman (the few times I have fished with Mike Fixter as an example) take the time to ask questions, don't be afraid to stop fishing and just watch them, how are they casting, what retrieve do they use and rod motions & with which plugs or lures. Where are they concentrating their efforts with the lure, outside the break, middle water, last 10 yards, are they pausing after a cast to let it sink, if so how long, do they change their cadence or retrieve, where do they expect a fish on certain structure and why? Even someone that is for a lack of better words "not as proficient" a fisherman as you consider yourself, keep your mind open, you might be surprised what they show you. I have taken people out for their first time ever in the surf on many occasions and had them plain out fish me to the point where I had to walk over and ask, "okay what are you doing differently than I am, same lure and everything, so what is the deal?" Luck is usually not the answer, but something I was overseeing or wasn't doing, however minute. Also be open to suggestion, don't shrug off any help a fellow angler offers, even if you suspect he might be lying. 
  • Keep a Log- this is something I am terrible at, but have the best intentions every season of doing; Everytime you fish log date, time, length of session in hours, tide, weather not just that day but before and expected (was there just a storm or rain in the forecast & when) , barometric pressure, temperature, swell height, location, and if you catch a fish or many fish, what lure, the color, retrieve, structure, stomach contents if you kept any fish, size of the fish & sex of the fish its stomach contents. Overtime you will start to see patterns, they may not always hold true or be set in stone, but you can start to piece together the puzzle a little better. 
  • Use Quality Gear - this does not mean expensive gear either, but you also sometimes get what you pay for. I like the guys I see that have a $300 reel and $400 rod and then by cheapo swivels or line. Buy proven quality gear that doesn't break the bank. This site is a huge wealth of knowledge on what gear works and what doesn't. Use the search function, I know I do & keep in mind this site is not google, so try a few different searches before starting a post. 
  • Lures- Think of time tested lures that cover the three areas of the water column. Top/Surface (pencils, poppers, floating needles, surfsters, etc), Mid-depth (Swimbaits, SP minnows, Diving Metal Lips, Gliders, mod-sinking needles, Darters, etc)  & Bottom (tins & metals, Bucktails, heavy sinking needles, Sinking SP minnows, dredge darters, bottle plugs, etc.) Most days with all the plugs in my bag and garage I find myself fishing the 4-5 lures I have confidence in, that I have caught fish with and cover these three areas of the water column. If you said you only get 5 lures today here are my top choices: 6 in Cotton Cordell Pencil Redhead/white (Surface), Floating SP minnow (Sub-Surface to Middle), Kastmaster with Bucktail (Bottom-Middle), Hairaiser Bucktail white with sparkle chenille paired with white 4 in curly tail grub or white pork rind strip (Bottom), & 5 in Big Hammer Swimbait on 1.5 oz head in Sardine or Anchovy colors (Bottom to Middle).  
  • Learn to tie Good easy Knots - nothing like finally hooking a good fish just to have it pop off and find a pig like curly tail at the end of your line a sure sign your knot failed. Learn the difference between good mono or flouro knots & braid specific knots (even I learned the hard way about applying a good mono knot to braid just to have it slip out, back when gorrilla braid just came on the market). Practice your knots. Test them to see how far you can push them before they break with differ lb test and see where they break, in the middle of the line, it probably wasn't your knot. I prefer to use the easiest knots to tie that give me the greatest strength. Complicated knots are great when you can see, but ever have to re-tie in the pitch blackness of night on a windy beach with no headlamp? Show me that bimini twist or FG knot then?  Three essential knots I use; Improved Clinch (for mono & floro) Polamar (braid) Dropper loop for highlow baitfishing or teasers. I use a few others, but these are my mainstays and could tie them all blindfolded. Line to Line- Double Uni. One last tip-wet your knots before cinching- a little lube goes a long way. 
  •  Don't be afraid to Move- think Moocks made this point, can have all the right lures, skills, read structure, etc, but if the fish are not there, it won't matter. If I fish a beach for two hours on a good tide and the conditions seem right, I am watching other fisherman, and bait fisherman, do nothing, yes the bite could turn on with a tide change or bait moves in, but more than likely a move is in order. Try another beach a few miles or many miles away. This has saved many a skunking for me, even though it can be a pain when you have already walked a distance. Get in your car and drive, try another spot or another after that. 1-2 hours and if you have done the above something should go bump on your line. Skunks suck, I know, but again try to figure out why there were not fish there, did they move on, did the bait move, did the conditions change, etc. 
  • Finally Enjoy the act of Fishing & be Confident- Attitude and Mentality I feel play a big part and make the difference between having a good outing and catching fish vs being miserable and not catching. Don't give up, go out with the attitude that you are going to catch a fish and keep that attitude up until the last cast. Hit it hard and have no regrets. Even if you didn't get a single bite, go through the a fore mentioned skills, what did you learn, what was your take away, how was your casting form, etc. Even Michael Jordan attended practice, when your not catching your still practicing your slam dunk for when the game is on! Too many times I go out with a newbie and halfway through the session they have given up hope or sit down on the beach. Keep your line in the water as much as possible. If you already have the attitude that you are not going to catch anything, better off fishing from your couch at home. 

Sorry got a little carried away on this one, but to wrap this up, luck to me has very little to do with it, but to me acquiring experience, time on the water, & knowledge will catch you more fish in the long run. Tightlines... 

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1 hour ago, Linesideslayer said:

I agree with this statement the most, except mine would be 80-10-10. Going from striper greenhorn in high school & college, where I knew next to nothing about fishing the surf, to where I am at today which I would consider myself proficient to fair at best, in no way am I an expert or pro. Couple of things I have learned with time in my 20+ years fishing for them and am still learning many of these still to this day. 

  • How to read water- troughs, holes, sandbars, rips etc. the more time on the water and visiting the same beach at very low and then at high tides. Beach structure changes, sand moves. Knowing and being able to interpret what the water is telling you is a big part of catching fish. When you do catch a fish at a spot note where and what the structure was if possible. Did the fish strike after you pulled your lure over a sandbar and dropped off into the rip. how far out was the fish on the outter break, right next to shore, was the fish in white water on a sand bar. 
  • What are they eating-match the hatch as they say: sandcrabs, predominate baitfish - sardines, mackerel, anchovies, juvenile jack smelt, etc. Sand worm hatch, pile worms, clams. If and when I do catch one and keep it for the table, stomach is checked everytime to see contents. You can learn a lot from this.  
  • Fish with someone that you consider a better fisherman- Anytime I fish with someone new or someone I would consider a better fisherman (the few times I have fished with Mike Fixter as an example) take the time to ask questions, don't be afraid to stop fishing and just watch them, how are they casting, what retrieve do they use and rod motions & with which plugs or lures. Where are they concentrating their efforts with the lure, outside the break, middle water, last 10 yards, are they pausing after a cast to let it sink, if so how long, do they change their cadence or retrieve, where do they expect a fish on certain structure and why? Even someone that is for a lack of better words "not as proficient" a fisherman as you consider yourself, keep your mind open, you might be surprised what they show you. I have taken people out for their first time ever in the surf on many occasions and had them plain out fish me to the point where I had to walk over and ask, "okay what are you doing differently than I am, same lure and everything, so what is the deal?" Luck is usually not the answer, but something I was overseeing or wasn't doing, however minute. Also be open to suggestion, don't shrug off any help a fellow angler offers, even if you suspect he might be lying. 
  • Keep a Log- this is something I am terrible at, but have the best intentions every season of doing; Everytime you fish log date, time, length of session in hours, tide, weather not just that day but before and expected (was there just a storm or rain in the forecast & when) , barometric pressure, temperature, swell height, location, and if you catch a fish or many fish, what lure, the color, retrieve, structure, stomach contents if you kept any fish, size of the fish & sex of the fish its stomach contents. Overtime you will start to see patterns, they may not always hold true or be set in stone, but you can start to piece together the puzzle a little better. 
  • Use Quality Gear - this does not mean expensive gear either, but you also sometimes get what you pay for. I like the guys I see that have a $300 reel and $400 rod and then by cheapo swivels or line. Buy proven quality gear that doesn't break the bank. This site is a huge wealth of knowledge on what gear works and what doesn't. Use the search function, I know I do & keep in mind this site is not google, so try a few different searches before starting a post. 
  • Lures- Think of time tested lures that cover the three areas of the water column. Top/Surface (pencils, poppers, floating needles, surfsters, etc), Mid-depth (Swimbaits, SP minnows, Diving Metal Lips, Gliders, mod-sinking needles, Darters, etc)  & Bottom (tins & metals, Bucktails, heavy sinking needles, Sinking SP minnows, dredge darters, bottle plugs, etc.) Most days with all the plugs in my bag and garage I find myself fishing the 4-5 lures I have confidence in, that I have caught fish with and cover these three areas of the water column. If you said you only get 5 lures today here are my top choices: 6 in Cotton Cordell Pencil Redhead/white (Surface), Floating SP minnow (Sub-Surface to Middle), Kastmaster with Bucktail (Bottom-Middle), Hairaiser Bucktail white with sparkle chenille paired with white 4 in curly tail grub or white pork rind strip (Bottom), & 5 in Big Hammer Swimbait on 1.5 oz head in Sardine or Anchovy colors (Bottom to Middle).  
  • Learn to tie Good easy Knots - nothing like finally hooking a good fish just to have it pop off and find a pig like curly tail at the end of your line a sure sign your knot failed. Learn the difference between good mono or flouro knots & braid specific knots (even I learned the hard way about applying a good mono knot to braid just to have it slip out, back when gorrilla braid just came on the market). Practice your knots. Test them to see how far you can push them before they break with differ lb test and see where they break, in the middle of the line, it probably wasn't your knot. I prefer to use the easiest knots to tie that give me the greatest strength. Complicated knots are great when you can see, but ever have to re-tie in the pitch blackness of night on a windy beach with no headlamp? Show me that bimini twist or FG knot then?  Three essential knots I use; Improved Clinch (for mono & floro) Polamar (braid) Dropper loop for highlow baitfishing or teasers. I use a few others, but these are my mainstays and could tie them all blindfolded. Line to Line- Double Uni. One last tip-wet your knots before cinching- a little lube goes a long way. 
  •  Don't be afraid to Move- think Moocks made this point, can have all the right lures, skills, read structure, etc, but if the fish are not there, it won't matter. If I fish a beach for two hours on a good tide and the conditions seem right, I am watching other fisherman, and bait fisherman, do nothing, yes the bite could turn on with a tide change or bait moves in, but more than likely a move is in order. Try another beach a few miles or many miles away. This has saved many a skunking for me, even though it can be a pain when you have already walked a distance. Get in your car and drive, try another spot or another after that. 1-2 hours and if you have done the above something should go bump on your line. Skunks suck, I know, but again try to figure out why there were not fish there, did they move on, did the bait move, did the conditions change, etc. 
  • Finally Enjoy the act of Fishing & be Confident- Attitude and Mentality I feel play a big part and make the difference between having a good outing and catching fish vs being miserable and not catching. Don't give up, go out with the attitude that you are going to catch a fish and keep that attitude up until the last cast. Hit it hard and have no regrets. Even if you didn't get a single bite, go through the a fore mentioned skills, what did you learn, what was your take away, how was your casting form, etc. Even Michael Jordan attended practice, when your not catching your still practicing your slam dunk for when the game is on! Too many times I go out with a newbie and halfway through the session they have given up hope or sit down on the beach. Keep your line in the water as much as possible. If you already have the attitude that you are not going to catch anything, better off fishing from your couch at home. 

Sorry got a little carried away on this one, but to wrap this up, luck to me has very little to do with it, but to me acquiring experience, time on the water, & knowledge will catch you more fish in the long run. Tightlines... 

Well said.

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3 hours ago, Linesideslayer said:

I agree with this statement the most, except mine would be 80-10-10. Going from striper greenhorn in high school & college, where I knew next to nothing about fishing the surf, to where I am at today which I would consider myself proficient to fair at best, in no way am I an expert or pro. Couple of things I have learned with time in my 20+ years fishing for them and am still learning many of these still to this day. 

  • How to read water- troughs, holes, sandbars, rips etc. the more time on the water and visiting the same beach at very low and then at high tides. Beach structure changes, sand moves. Knowing and being able to interpret what the water is telling you is a big part of catching fish. When you do catch a fish at a spot note where and what the structure was if possible. Did the fish strike after you pulled your lure over a sandbar and dropped off into the rip. how far out was the fish on the outter break, right next to shore, was the fish in white water on a sand bar. 
  • What are they eating-match the hatch as they say: sandcrabs, predominate baitfish - sardines, mackerel, anchovies, juvenile jack smelt, etc. Sand worm hatch, pile worms, clams. If and when I do catch one and keep it for the table, stomach is checked everytime to see contents. You can learn a lot from this.  
  • Fish with someone that you consider a better fisherman- Anytime I fish with someone new or someone I would consider a better fisherman (the few times I have fished with Mike Fixter as an example) take the time to ask questions, don't be afraid to stop fishing and just watch them, how are they casting, what retrieve do they use and rod motions & with which plugs or lures. Where are they concentrating their efforts with the lure, outside the break, middle water, last 10 yards, are they pausing after a cast to let it sink, if so how long, do they change their cadence or retrieve, where do they expect a fish on certain structure and why? Even someone that is for a lack of better words "not as proficient" a fisherman as you consider yourself, keep your mind open, you might be surprised what they show you. I have taken people out for their first time ever in the surf on many occasions and had them plain out fish me to the point where I had to walk over and ask, "okay what are you doing differently than I am, same lure and everything, so what is the deal?" Luck is usually not the answer, but something I was overseeing or wasn't doing, however minute. Also be open to suggestion, don't shrug off any help a fellow angler offers, even if you suspect he might be lying. 
  • Keep a Log- this is something I am terrible at, but have the best intentions every season of doing; Everytime you fish log date, time, length of session in hours, tide, weather not just that day but before and expected (was there just a storm or rain in the forecast & when) , barometric pressure, temperature, swell height, location, and if you catch a fish or many fish, what lure, the color, retrieve, structure, stomach contents if you kept any fish, size of the fish & sex of the fish its stomach contents. Overtime you will start to see patterns, they may not always hold true or be set in stone, but you can start to piece together the puzzle a little better. 
  • Use Quality Gear - this does not mean expensive gear either, but you also sometimes get what you pay for. I like the guys I see that have a $300 reel and $400 rod and then by cheapo swivels or line. Buy proven quality gear that doesn't break the bank. This site is a huge wealth of knowledge on what gear works and what doesn't. Use the search function, I know I do & keep in mind this site is not google, so try a few different searches before starting a post. 
  • Lures- Think of time tested lures that cover the three areas of the water column. Top/Surface (pencils, poppers, floating needles, surfsters, etc), Mid-depth (Swimbaits, SP minnows, Diving Metal Lips, Gliders, mod-sinking needles, Darters, etc)  & Bottom (tins & metals, Bucktails, heavy sinking needles, Sinking SP minnows, dredge darters, bottle plugs, etc.) Most days with all the plugs in my bag and garage I find myself fishing the 4-5 lures I have confidence in, that I have caught fish with and cover these three areas of the water column. If you said you only get 5 lures today here are my top choices: 6 in Cotton Cordell Pencil Redhead/white (Surface), Floating SP minnow (Sub-Surface to Middle), Kastmaster with Bucktail (Bottom-Middle), Hairaiser Bucktail white with sparkle chenille paired with white 4 in curly tail grub or white pork rind strip (Bottom), & 5 in Big Hammer Swimbait on 1.5 oz head in Sardine or Anchovy colors (Bottom to Middle).  
  • Learn to tie Good easy Knots - nothing like finally hooking a good fish just to have it pop off and find a pig like curly tail at the end of your line a sure sign your knot failed. Learn the difference between good mono or flouro knots & braid specific knots (even I learned the hard way about applying a good mono knot to braid just to have it slip out, back when gorrilla braid just came on the market). Practice your knots. Test them to see how far you can push them before they break with differ lb test and see where they break, in the middle of the line, it probably wasn't your knot. I prefer to use the easiest knots to tie that give me the greatest strength. Complicated knots are great when you can see, but ever have to re-tie in the pitch blackness of night on a windy beach with no headlamp? Show me that bimini twist or FG knot then?  Three essential knots I use; Improved Clinch (for mono & floro) Polamar (braid) Dropper loop for highlow baitfishing or teasers. I use a few others, but these are my mainstays and could tie them all blindfolded. Line to Line- Double Uni. One last tip-wet your knots before cinching- a little lube goes a long way. 
  •  Don't be afraid to Move- think Moocks made this point, can have all the right lures, skills, read structure, etc, but if the fish are not there, it won't matter. If I fish a beach for two hours on a good tide and the conditions seem right, I am watching other fisherman, and bait fisherman, do nothing, yes the bite could turn on with a tide change or bait moves in, but more than likely a move is in order. Try another beach a few miles or many miles away. This has saved many a skunking for me, even though it can be a pain when you have already walked a distance. Get in your car and drive, try another spot or another after that. 1-2 hours and if you have done the above something should go bump on your line. Skunks suck, I know, but again try to figure out why there were not fish there, did they move on, did the bait move, did the conditions change, etc. 
  • Finally Enjoy the act of Fishing & be Confident- Attitude and Mentality I feel play a big part and make the difference between having a good outing and catching fish vs being miserable and not catching. Don't give up, go out with the attitude that you are going to catch a fish and keep that attitude up until the last cast. Hit it hard and have no regrets. Even if you didn't get a single bite, go through the a fore mentioned skills, what did you learn, what was your take away, how was your casting form, etc. Even Michael Jordan attended practice, when your not catching your still practicing your slam dunk for when the game is on! Too many times I go out with a newbie and halfway through the session they have given up hope or sit down on the beach. Keep your line in the water as much as possible. If you already have the attitude that you are not going to catch anything, better off fishing from your couch at home. 

Sorry got a little carried away on this one, but to wrap this up, luck to me has very little to do with it, but to me acquiring experience, time on the water, & knowledge will catch you more fish in the long run. Tightlines... 

Looks like you had the right “tool” and nailed it :laugh:

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12 mins ago, norcalkat said:

Looks like you had the right “tool” and nailed it :laugh:

Couldn't sleep last night due to my current job that I loath, so might as well make some use of my insomnia. Funny thing in person I am reserved and shy when I don't know people or meeting for the first time, get anxiety at the Flings real bad, even though I don't show it. But put me on the phone or text typing and I am not shy at all. Thanks Orlando!

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Just now, moocks said:

Something for you to ponder tonight............If luck has nothing to do with it Why does the kid out fish you ? lol

The kids inexperience gives him a clear mind

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100% Luck

You have to be at the right place at the right time and be able to get to the water when you get that phone call or text  and lastly find a spot in that lineup of 50 other guys hoping they don't tangle your line! :D

 

 

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