SalmonAndStriper Stalker

Ice time

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Good news is, recent cold snap probably brought a few bodies of water into play. At least temporarily.... :/

Bad news is, I used the "G-word" last week(..."guaranteed") which you never do in weather or fishing. Just invites bad karma! So, a lousy mild stretch of weather is on deck now with big rains Thursday. :(.

Screenshot_20190122-162929_WeatherBug.jpg.5d7b851abc187cd6a6bb3d4db5227bbc.jpg

 

Good news #2 is... at least the models have a cold stretch setting up for end of month early Feb.

Screenshot_20190122-143955_Twitter.jpg.41fcb6647674d8d5bb5b2f90fe872626.jpgScreenshot_20190122-144018_Twitter.jpg.5d750000a285dad706e38b51f1a74e28.jpg

Welp, we'll see how it all shakes out. My chips are still on this stretch being cold so most folks can get out and fish in early Feb. Fingers X'd

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Posted (edited) · Report post

Welp...huge blow to ice sheets today. Time to grab the planks...

 

Queeche, VT:

ezgif-3-c634a7f99f40.gif.05a9e24a994bce4dfdde4a4f534dd832.gif

 

Getting ready to admit defeat on the forecast. :(

 

While it is true serious artic air is staging for a dropdown into the US, I didn't foresee the persistence of the storm track which has killed us.

 

Cutters:

5c4a73943a0f1_ezgif-3-1b7e3ca112c8(1).gif.07ccca5aef54de4c3878f62744a08f3d.gif

Storms that run west, either shooting west over the Great Lakes,  to directly over us. Instead of SE of Nantucket where we stay on the cold side and get snow.

 

Ex of model ensemble showing likely storm track Tues, clustering over Great Lakes 

20190124_212603.jpg.f436321f481e5d5503063b77129f6561.jpg

 

Wonder why we haven't gotten any snow this winter?

Cutters. Persistent Storm track to our west keeping us on the rainy and warm east side.

 

I did not foresee the cutter "inland runner" stormtrack holding firm. It has been devastating for ice development. 

 

On a positive note, still on for cold weather next week. Per what I discussed in previous forecasts.

 

It's going to be brutal to our west. Windchills to 40-50+below. 

We get a piece.. but not the main blast 

Screenshot_20190124-035131_Twitter.jpg.fe20cec684b53a856a2efacc3d4410c1.jpg

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Fw it's worth: ^ white = extreme cold

 

After this upcoming cold shot next wk,  I'd recommend fishing where you can, wherever it's safe. Probably winter's last bottom.

Edited by rst3

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Here you go, ladies and germs. Stretch we've been waiting for. 

Screenshot_20190127-004750_Twitter.jpg.341d8f60cb93cee8511abf68e6e1a509.jpg

 

Nice cold snap on deck.

 

And these are Boston temps. Should be much colder in the hinterlands

 

Prob wont put the Cape in play...

 but should firm everyone else up good.

 

Enjoy.

 :th:

 

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I finally got out on the ice today locally on Winnecunet in Norton. There was around 4-5” of ice with only around an inch for a few feet around the shore. The ice started to get soft from the warm temps so I bailed around 1:00. Fishing seemed pretty slow for everyone. 

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Drove out to Quaboag on Saturday for the Lions derby.    Fishing was its usual snail pace and small for me.  Six perch and a pickerel all too small to measure, but I did see a guy on the other side of the lake ice a ~40" pike through my binoculars.

 

Yesterday I spent raking my lawn of all the twigs and branches from  Thursday.   :waiting:

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Ice forecast, Jan 29th.

 

Nice stretch coming up. We get clipped by a lobe of the tropospheric polar vortex; the main blast to our west delivers -70° windchills to northern Minnesota.

 

Screenshot_20190129-150353_Twitter.jpg.5588e5604e8dc6d57527339085e8d1ae.jpg

 

We get brushed by the Arctic blast. Will be cold... but not -70 cold.

Screenshot_20190129-200750_WeatherBug.jpg.c2df8d04555cd5fdb5eaa889cfe93964.jpg

 

As shown, this weekend should be great for ice fishing.

 

After this weekend, **slight pattern change. At least temporarily. Shifts to more "zonal" ..a warmer pacific flow.. i.e. straight west to east. Can see this as the vortex lobe departs:

ezgif-3-66c40ba99025.gif.4009d7658937224e2144007a946801ed.gif

 

This flatter, zonal flow tends to be milder. And the temps next week support this tendency

Screenshot_20190129-201433_WeatherBug.jpg.a0233dab84477cd95c15b8a17389f6db.jpg

 

Bottom line: a great weekend to fish, with nice firm ice (in already safe locations that have a good base)

 

Next week: milder, but at least no warm rain deluges on horizon. 

 

 

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Today's MODIS satellite scan.

 

Can see why the cape isn't known for its ice fishing...

Screenshot_20190131-131553_Twitter.jpg.d5c8b1fdad40b190fb94bbd7eb142359.jpg

Interesting feature: sebago up in Maine isn't frozen over

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We finally got some nice ice but it’s going to take a beating in this warmup. This up and down weather pattern is driving me crazy.

I was on 9” of ice in Northeast CT yesterday. Hopefully enough ice remains to go again next weekend. 

 

91C138A2-FA1C-4142-B136-3E3EB91BA0A8.jpeg

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Oh I wish I took today off.

There is something extra cool about being on safe ice on a 60F bluebird day.

So long as slush and melt water doesn't make it less fun.

 

Somewhere I have an old Globe photo clipping from the 80s that shows college girls in bikinis laying on the beach at Walden in February, 70F, while in the background I am standing on the ice jigging in 40 feet of water.

Ice was 2 feet thick that winter. 70 F and still safe ice.

Bizarre

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Posted (edited) · Report post

Big hit on ice today and tomorrow.

Screenshot_20190204-144600_WeatherBug.jpg.9bf8a7f7e824b88f3411e54f83ffe384.jpgScreenshot_20190204-151323_Twitter.jpg.f21a1d468513ddad55c532a004a1e211.jpg

 

Looking forward, I think the best we can hope for is an up and down February, temperature-wise. The ol' "southeast ridge" has set back up over the mid-Atlantic and SE region, which may periodically pump warm air north into SNE. 

ezgif-3-2b6845178e42.gif.a1f8c95a89356b66a7a658a7b98355ae.gif

Edited by rst3

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Last ice forecast for season...

 

Welp! No good!

Screenshot_20190205-144816_Twitter.jpg.d341bfd20661958ae344d7fead098f84.jpg

 

angry_snowman_by_cassiethomas_d36fe3t-fullview.png.9f61ddfbda1db175787cf812fad74604.png

 

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So uuhhhmmm Mea culpa time!

Got the February forecast flat-out wrong.

 

Put my chips on a cold month..especially early!

 

F.A.I.L. 

 

Not working out that way.

 

The southeast ridge is back.

Never good for ice.

Screenshot_20190205-144541_Twitter.jpg.2be76710f238a8c4ec85e5d9d988081a.jpg

 

Looking back.. forecast showed some notable skill at predicting cold snaps.. but they just weren't sustained. 

 

And my thoughts on February look to be a major bust.

 

FWIW, the skill-score of forecasting has improved tremendously over the past few decades. Here's one example 

Screenshot_20190204-213846_Twitter.jpg.8a440bcb70d0df3293ceae0c54f0a905.jpg

 

That being said, we weatherfolk still struggle past 10-14days.

 

> I feel very confident inside 14.

 

Past 14? Still a total crapshoot.

 

Enjoy whatever icetime there is left. Esp to the north, where it hangs on longest.

 

-Steve

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I was out Saturday north central.

There was not enough ice to sustain the past 2 days.

Could be done. 

 

Have a Maine trip holding out hope for but it's pretty far south and close to coast.

Could be all done.

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Well I don't care what everyone else says....

 

 

... I totally blame you.   :hooked:

 

Eff it.  The money I'll save on heating oil, shiners and bacon I can spend on new saltwater gear.

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