SalmonAndStriper Stalker

Ice time

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40 mins ago, bassturds said:

by all means KEEP THE COLD NORTH!!!!! MILD WINTER PLEASE!!!!!! 

If you're going to be yaking it up, next few weeks look to be fine. After early to mid Jan though, ehhh.... things are trending hardwater for SNE

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Forecasters starting to get a little more bullish on "ice-building cold" for SNE in mid January. 

Q: "COLD in mid-January.. ya dont say! That's crazy talk! Like, it'll be hot in July!"

 

(¬_¬)
A: yes. Climatologically, mid January is the coldest stretch of the year. Buuut there's a big difference for SNE ice between a few weeks with temps topping out in the upper 20s, vs a few weeks with temps in the upper 30s and low 40s. 

 

Moreover, a few cold and dry weeks are better for ice than a few cold and snowy weeks. So there's still that hangnail to work out.

 

Still some big disagreement in the models though. They're having a hard time with the stratospheric polar vortex, up at 60,000ft, and how it's impending split factors into tropospheric weather patterns down much closer to the surface

(Note the "Low" splits)

Pv.gif.1697ada4b68082387e7f477eb17c2cd0.gif

 

 

Closer to the surface... here's one shot of a potential situation a week into January.

EURO shows the tropospheric polar vortex swirling over Hudson Bay at 17,000ft, with implications for below normal temps in NE.

Screenshot_20181228-151828_Twitter.jpg.3fb24cc56205abd6464d1d07bce2a5b6.jpg

 

At the same exact time, the lousy US Model shows a huge warm ridge over the same area

Screenshot_20181228-151854_Twitter.jpg.2389b450202d7ac9c185751fe66dcc8d.jpg

 

This is the complete opposite forecast--and demonstrates why (good)meteorologists dont just spit out model solutions verbatim. They have to read these things with a trained eye and deduce which solution makes the most sense, given all the other phases the atmosphere is in at that particular time, and place.

 

Bottom line: it will be cold in January ;).


 

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On 12/28/2018 at 3:53 PM, rst3 said:

 

 

Bottom line: it will be cold in January ;).


 

Your weather reports are so detailed that I have no idea what you are saying. Are you a weather man because you should be. Keep them coming.

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19 hours ago, SalmonAndStriper Stalker said:

Your weather reports are so detailed that I have no idea what you are saying. Are you a weather man because you should be. Keep them coming.

:). Not a weatherman, just a lite hobby. Funny thing is though, when real weathermen actually talk tech/shop ..I barely have any clue what they're saying. Stuff's half greek even to a guy that reads it every day. :)

 

Glad a few folks enjoy my *attempts at sharing the weather outlook...because be it ice time or summer offshore, weather is a huge huge part of fishing. And imo, it pays dividends to at least have a percentage feel for what the forecast odds look like, year-round. Whether for planning purposes, or actually fishing, weather is one thing you can at least have some sense of before you leave for the dock(or ice).

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Looks like it’s going to be in the 50’s again on Tuesday. The winters lately in southeast MA are like four months worth of March. We get mostly rain, wind and mud. Sucks for people that like to do winter activities. Ice fishing is not looking too promising this year. 

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Posted (edited) · Report post

On 12/30/2018 at 9:59 PM, z-man said:

Looks like it’s going to be in the 50’s again on Tuesday. The winters lately in southeast MA are like four months worth of March. We get mostly rain, wind and mud. Sucks for people that like to do winter activities. Ice fishing is not looking too promising this year. 

Nnnyeah.... gotta say, you might just be right.

 

Ive been hanging my hat on a cold spell opening up mid month and into February-- but that remains to be seen. Too many weeks out to really get a good bead on things. What is clear is that the first 2 weeks of January will feature "seasonable cool" but no deep cold. Here's the 2wk outlook:

ezgif-3-49af3688ca9e.gif.b21afc6e9f1e1e8eeea66afc89a297e7.gif

Screenshot_20190101-202234_Twitter.jpg.3cb448c391b86ae549877b79a5a3b86f.jpg

Screenshot_20190101-202247_Twitter.jpg.b3d9dff521501c7acf4a1dcc9ddacbc1.jpg

 

AFTER January 15th, if we're going to get hit with ice building cold, its gotta happen pretty quickly, as the sun and season starts to turn in February, and icy cold gets harder to come by after Feb 15th. 

 

I still favor a colder second half of January than the 1st half.....but will it be enough to build ice like I'd hoped? Cant say for sure. Trend over the years has really been just like you said: milder, March-like winters

Screenshot_20190101-202301_Twitter.jpg.0f3a2b60443eaa8e115d6012f7c9726c.jpg

 

Today:

Screenshot_20190101-203711_Twitter.jpg.f28e29cc15a228e9e78f371df69dac24.jpg

Edited by rst3

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