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CNN FINAL ELECTION POLL IS FRAUGHT WITH BIAS TOWARD DEMS, LAUGH AT IT.

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There is no possible argument to defend that last CNN election poll of this cycle. I have called out CNN before for their indefensible party identification bias and I am calling them out now. 

 

Turn on almost any news show this morning and you have heard someone touting the key finding of the CNN poll: Dems have opened a 13% advantage in the generic congressional question. THIRTEEN POINTS! Holy crap, a Blue Tsunami is coming. 

 

And you heard it at CNN and MSNBC and even Fox News. 

 

BULL SHEATE!

 

Let’s go to the details, shall we.

 

 


From opening paragraph of details page:

 

The study was conducted for CNN via telephone by SSRS, an independent research company. Interviews were conducted from November 01 to November 03, 2018 among a sample of 1,518 respondents. The landline total respondents were 614 and there were 904 cell phone respondents.

 

From last paragraph of details page:

 

A total of 1,518 adults were interviewed by telephone nationwide by live interviewers calling both landline and cell phones. Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish. Among the entire sample, 36% described themselves as Democrats, 27% described themselves as Republicans, and 37% described themselves as independents or members of another party.
All respondents were asked questions concerning basic demographics, and the entire sample was weighted to reflect national Census figures for gender, race, age, education, region of country, and telephone usage.
Results for the full sample have a margin of sampling error of +/- 3.1 percentage points. For the sample of 1,380 registered voters and adults who plan to register to vote on/before Election Day, it is +/- 3.2 percentage points. For the sample of 1,151 likely voters, it is +/- 3.5 percentage points.

 

Observations:

 

  • This was a Thursday-Saturday poll. As noted in another post, weekday polls have a tendency to get more liberal responses
  • The opening paragraph says 1,518 “respondents” but it is only until we get to the last paragraph that we learn that this is an “adult” poll on the top line numbers. As noted elsewhere, polls of “adults” skew more liberal. 
  • Now for the real laugher, 36% Dems, 27% GOP - What?! A +9% advantage to Dems! Based on what? 

 

So here’s how CNN presented the data on their home page and in their reportage:

 

On the eve of the midterm elections, Democrats continue to hold a double-digit lead over Republicans in a generic congressional ballot among likely voters, according to a new CNN Poll conducted by SSRS. The party's 55% to 42% advantage in the new poll mirrors their lead in early October and is about the same as the 10-point edge they held just after Labor Day. 

 

That's a slimmer edge than the party held in CNN's final poll before the 2006 midterm elections and similar to the Republicans' 10-point advantage just before the 2010 midterms. 

 

On the eve of the midterm elections, Democrats continue to hold a double-digit lead over Republicans in a generic congressional ballot among likely voters, according to a new CNN Poll conducted by SSRS. The party's 55% to 42% advantage in the new poll mirrors their lead in early October and is about the same as the 10-point edge they held just after Labor Day. 

 

That's a slimmer edge than the party held in CNN's final poll before the 2006 midterm elections and similar to the Republicans' 10-point advantage just before the 2010 midterms. 

 

Now re-read the above and adjust the Dems % down by 7% and the GOP up by 7% and see what the numbers actually say if you weighted the poll’s raw data by voter registrations. 

 

If you make that adjustment, consider the ~3% MoE, this is nearly a tossup. 

 

Last point, there is nothing in the data, raw or summary, that tells us that the geographic distribution was of the participants. If Census weighted, then big population states, many blue, will disproportionately impact the results too. 

 

Anyone you hear mention this poll, laugh at them. 

 

 

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1 min ago, tomkaz said:

Anyone you hear mention this poll, laugh at them. 

TK, you are numbers man, following the polling a lot closer than most of us here.

 

How do you see the trendlines?

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I saw CNN talking about that this morning.  They have some millenial on daily that runs through the various polls/house and senate predictions, etc.

 

He showed one congressional race, I forget where, where the Dem was allegedly up by 1% point.  He said it fast, but he said "A NY times poll just came out showing him up by a little more , and that should help him widen his lead"

 

Why?  Why would a poll help a candidate widen his lead.?

 

Are they insinuating that media polling coverage  influences elections?  If so, is it any surprise CNN or NY Times would put that type of a poll story out? 

Edited by jkrock

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3 mins ago, zybathegeek said:

TK, you are numbers man, following the polling a lot closer than most of us here.

 

How do you see the trendlines?

CANDIDLY, I have no confidence in predicting any outcome. The trendlines are all over the place and bounce around poll to poll which creates too much noise. Since Kavanaugh, clearly the GOP has caught up and closed a gap that might have been there. 

 

The only thing I am confident in is that we will have more than a few “surprises” tomorrow night and a few “shocks” as well. I should start a discussion just on Tuesday Night Surprise Predictions but that is as much conjecture as this. 

 

I don’t like the conventional wisdom being spouted everywhere that the Dems will take the House by a historically uninspiring margin. That is, Dems take house with majority under 10 seats, which would be a switch of 33 seats, the historical norm. That is too pat and it is the Liberal Media consensus which, as we know from the past, is always reflecting their best case scenario at this point in any election. So if their best case is a Blue Ripple, what could the downside be. 

 

Turnout is everything and the actual votes of certain blocks relative to expectations will be the decider in many districts and states. 

 

I am going one of two ways, either Red Undertow or Blue Tsunami and I am placing those at 60/40%. 

 

Red Undertow has the GOP expand its Senate margin by 4+ and defend its House margin holding the Dems to 10 gains or less. Yes, by the conventional wisdom, that is crazy but I think possible if the GOP outrage is as strong as it could be, yet not reflected in polling. 

 

The Blue Tsunami would have the Senate go to 50/50 (Pence the deciding vote) and the Dems taking 45+ seats in the House. Yes, neither of these look likely but, again, if the Dem/Liberal rage is intense enough, and the cities and suburbs turn out, with the youth, then it could be a blowout. 

 

What I think can make the Red Undertow possible:

 

Record turnout by GOP

GOP splits independent vote better than 40/60% which some polls suggest

GOP takes 30%+ of black Americans’ votes

GOP takes 40%+ of Hispanic votes

Cubans in Florida back GOP candidates in unprecedented numbers

Florida panhandle carries Scott and DeSantis over the victory line

Youth vote picks up from prior cycles, but not in numbers that David Hogg had been predicting. 

 

BAck to work.....

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16 mins ago, tomkaz said:

 I have called out CNN before for their indefensible party identification bias and I am calling them out now. 

 

So. How did they take it? 

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14 mins ago, tomkaz said:

CANDIDLY, I have no confidence in predicting any outcome.

Thanks, that is my estimation as well.

 

Rhetoric on both sides has been incendiary, and emotions run the gamut from high to raw.

 

Turnout will come down to Blue or Red majorities in each state, but I suspect that there are more than a few Democrats disillusioned by their party's fall from grace into overt hostility, swing to the left, and inability to articulate any form of policy that will benefit all, and whether these factors will slow turnout.

 

Anyone who claims to have a lock to call it either has a crystal ball, or is playing with them.

Edited by zybathegeek

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FWIW, Silver’s 538 just UPPED the Dems’ House odds from 6-in-7 to 7-in-8, now 87.5%. Most likely based on these latest polls. He also uses funding stats and the Dems have been raising massive amounts of money. 

 

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1 hour ago, tomkaz said:

There is no possible argument to defend that last CNN election poll of this cycle. I have called out CNN before for their indefensible party identification bias and I am calling them out now. 

 

Turn on almost any news show this morning and you have heard someone touting the key finding of the CNN poll: Dems have opened a 13% advantage in the generic congressional question. THIRTEEN POINTS! Holy crap, a Blue Tsunami is coming. 

 

And you heard it at CNN and MSNBC and even Fox News. 

 

BULL SHEATE!

 

Let’s go to the details, shall we.

 

 


From opening paragraph of details page:

 

The study was conducted for CNN via telephone by SSRS, an independent research company. Interviews were conducted from November 01 to November 03, 2018 among a sample of 1,518 respondents. The landline total respondents were 614 and there were 904 cell phone respondents.

 

From last paragraph of details page:

 

A total of 1,518 adults were interviewed by telephone nationwide by live interviewers calling both landline and cell phones. Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish. Among the entire sample, 36% described themselves as Democrats, 27% described themselves as Republicans, and 37% described themselves as independents or members of another party.
All respondents were asked questions concerning basic demographics, and the entire sample was weighted to reflect national Census figures for gender, race, age, education, region of country, and telephone usage.
Results for the full sample have a margin of sampling error of +/- 3.1 percentage points. For the sample of 1,380 registered voters and adults who plan to register to vote on/before Election Day, it is +/- 3.2 percentage points. For the sample of 1,151 likely voters, it is +/- 3.5 percentage points.

 

Observations:

 

  • This was a Thursday-Saturday poll. As noted in another post, weekday polls have a tendency to get more liberal responses
  • The opening paragraph says 1,518 “respondents” but it is only until we get to the last paragraph that we learn that this is an “adult” poll on the top line numbers. As noted elsewhere, polls of “adults” skew more liberal. 
  • Now for the real laugher, 36% Dems, 27% GOP - What?! A +9% advantage to Dems! Based on what? 

 

So here’s how CNN presented the data on their home page and in their reportage:

 

On the eve of the midterm elections, Democrats continue to hold a double-digit lead over Republicans in a generic congressional ballot among likely voters, according to a new CNN Poll conducted by SSRS. The party's 55% to 42% advantage in the new poll mirrors their lead in early October and is about the same as the 10-point edge they held just after Labor Day. 

 

That's a slimmer edge than the party held in CNN's final poll before the 2006 midterm elections and similar to the Republicans' 10-point advantage just before the 2010 midterms. 

 

On the eve of the midterm elections, Democrats continue to hold a double-digit lead over Republicans in a generic congressional ballot among likely voters, according to a new CNN Poll conducted by SSRS. The party's 55% to 42% advantage in the new poll mirrors their lead in early October and is about the same as the 10-point edge they held just after Labor Day. 

 

That's a slimmer edge than the party held in CNN's final poll before the 2006 midterm elections and similar to the Republicans' 10-point advantage just before the 2010 midterms. 

 

Now re-read the above and adjust the Dems % down by 7% and the GOP up by 7% and see what the numbers actually say if you weighted the poll’s raw data by voter registrations. 

 

If you make that adjustment, consider the ~3% MoE, this is nearly a tossup. 

 

Last point, there is nothing in the data, raw or summary, that tells us that the geographic distribution was of the participants. If Census weighted, then big population states, many blue, will disproportionately impact the results too. 

 

Anyone you hear mention this poll, laugh at them. 

 

 

It's just like the poll they posted in 2016, we all know how that turned out.

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15 mins ago, nalu22 said:

Some radio station just said Nelson and Gillum are up by 7; stay home no need to vote, it's over....

this is why I'm not in favor of early voting... there will be some percentage of voters who decide not to vote because some poll said their candidates was likely going to lose... 

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