flyangler

2016 vs 2018 Labor Conditions

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One would think this should have an impact on the elections. Yet the GOP has been hesitant to trumpet the progress of the economy. Why?

 

NON-FARM PAYROLL ADDS (Oct 2016 / Oct 2018)

161,000 / 250,000

 

YEAR TO DATE AVERAGE MONTHLY PAYROLL ADDS THRU OCT (2016 / 2018)

181,000 / 211,000

 

UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (2016 / 2018)

2016 4.9% / 3.7%

 

UNEMPLOYED WORKERS (2016 / 2018)

2016 7.8MM / 6.1MM

 

ABOVE PRIOR 12 MONTHS

2016 FLAT

2018 RATE declined by 0.4 percentage point and WORKERS by 449,000

 

UNEMPLOYMENT RATES (2016 / 2018)

HISPANICS 5.7 / 4.4%

WHITES 4.3 / 3.3%

BLACKS 8.6 / 6.2%

ASIANS 3.5 / 3.2%

MEN 4.6 / 3.5%

WOMEN 4.3 / 3.4%

TEENS 15.6 / 11.9%

 

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Maybe because those gains are so minimal (not really drastic)?   Maybe because the trends indicate that those gains were trending along swimmingly  before Trump?    

 

Meh,, maybe....

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7 mins ago, KnewBee said:

Maybe because those gains are so minimal (not really drastic)?   Maybe because the trends indicate that those gains were trending along swimmingly  before Trump?    

 

Meh,, maybe....

Did you take notes when Obama spoke about the Trump economy? You seem to be channeling "You didn't build that". 

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2 mins ago, tomkaz said:

Did you take notes when Obama spoke about the Trump economy? You seem to be channeling "You didn't build that". 

Nah,  just not buying into the hype that seems to be the economic surge that has been steadily increasing for so long.   

 

The sugar high will wear off soon....  then what?

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7 mins ago, KnewBee said:

Maybe because those gains are so minimal (not really drastic)?   Maybe because the trends indicate that those gains were trending along swimmingly  before Trump?    

 

Meh,, maybe....

1st, maybe? NO, 2nd, I don't need charts, graphs or figures to know the economy has turned about everyone I know who wasn't fully employed under Obama is fully employed today.

 

"If you can't get a job the economy isn't fine regardless of what the figures say!"  Me, every year Obama was President.

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4 mins ago, KnewBee said:

Nah,  just not buying into the hype that seems to be the economic surge that has been steadily increasing for so long.   

 

The sugar high will wear off soon....  then what?

Again, I will ask, if the "building" economic growth into the end of Obama's reign was a given, and if Clinton would have delivered Obama 3.0 economic policy, why did the markets reprice so significantly when Trump won? 

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3 mins ago, tomkaz said:

Again, I will ask, if the "building" economic growth into the end of Obama's reign was a given, and if Clinton would have delivered Obama 3.0 economic policy, why did the markets reprice so significantly when Trump won? 

The markets were steadily expanding,  regardless of who won.   Meh.   Same ol same ol.    Chickens are going to be roosting soon.  The sugar high is going to wear off.  My opinion.  

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Maybe because those Republicans know that it all can go away in a second, so they do not want to go too far out on that limb?

Even though the economy is booming, there are some clouds on the horizon, a California housing crash in number, and price of units sold, NYC too, in the high end...and rising interest rates.

 

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5 hours ago, KnewBee said:

The markets were steadily expanding,  regardless of who won.   Meh.   Same ol same ol.    Chickens are going to be roosting soon.  The sugar high is going to wear off.  My opinion.  

Sugar high? Hmmm, we hear that quite a bit. 

 

Obama’s moribund growth was while the Fed was holding interest rates near zero and buying $40Bn of USTs and MBS per month. Two years ago, QE was still going strong and created a massive tailwind, as designed.

 

Since then, Trump's economy is doing much better with the Fed out of the market and the Fed Funds rate up to 2.0-2.25% target range. That, by comparison, is a real headwind. 

 

So the economy may may have been expanding across the two administrations, but under vastly different underlying conditions. You never seem to hear Obama nor his defenders mention that. 

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Of all the groups to be seeing new lows in unemployment, this one is worth highlighting.

 

Veteran unemployment rate hit near-record low in October

by Maria Biery  | November 02, 2018 01:14 PM

The unemployment rate for veterans approached a record low in October, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics report released Friday. 

 

In September, the unemployment rate among veterans was 3.4 percent, but the rate has decreased to 2.9 percent in October. 

 

October marked just the second time since 2000 that the rate has dropped below 3 percent. The rate hit a low last October, when it fell to 2.7 percent. 

 

The unemployment rate for post-9/11 veterans also dropped from 3.9 percent last year to 3.1 percent this year. There was a slight rise in unemployment for older veterans. 

 

The veteran unemployment rate peaked at 9.9 percent in January 2011, but it has been on the decline since. 

 

On Thursday, the Department of U.S. Housing and Urban Development and the Department of Veterans Affairs announced a decline in veteran homelessness as well.

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